英国欺诈的未来——挑战大量自动化犯罪

Challenging High-Volume, Automated Crime The Future OfUKFraudChallengingHigh-Volume, Automated Crime June2022 PrincipalAuthors Professor Michael MainelliExecutive Chairman, Z/Yen Group Simon MillsSenior Associate, Z/Yen Group Executive Summary Thisstudy focuses primarily on fraud as it affects individuals and consumers,i.e.,large-scale, high-volume, automated fraud, where technology can make adifference. The timehorizonisroughly a decade ahead. The output of thisstudyprovidesfour scenarios for readers taking a considered,forward-lookingperspectiveonthreats and opportunities. Themethodology included open-source desk research leading to theidentification ofa set oftrends.Four scenarios were createdandtested againstthetrends,against Dator’s scenario classifications,and against Adams’risk/reward typologies.Five ‘future narratives’ were compiled and contrastedwith the scenarios.The trends,scenariosand narratives were used to elicitfeedback ina questionnaireand an online webclave.A viable systems approachwas used to model twosystems, the criminal system and the anti-fraudauthority system, and then used toidentify explorations for tackling fraud overthe next ten years. These explorations, along with the scenarios, were used toset out a handful of ‘challenge’ themes as suggestions to guide the anti-fraudagenda over the next decade. Thefourscenarios are:•Crumbling Capacity–the United Kingdom(UK)and international environment growsincreasingly fragilewith increasingcross-border frictionsthat permit increasing fraud.•Island Kingdom-social contractsbetween statesand citizens havereachedbreaking points, and international relations have deterioratedso far thatfraudstersoperatecross-borderwith impunity.•Safe Neighbourhoods–strong publicagencies and strong local, ethical bondscombine with strong international cooperation toalmost eliminate fraud.•Big Tech Country-attemptsto regulate big tech companies have failedbutimportant ‘customers’ get the protectionthey‘deserve’from privateproviders. The six challenge themes are:•Measure & Manage Fraud Systematically-management tools-such asa clearchain of command,a clear network of support,a planning-implementation-evaluation management loop,and a fundamental re-engineering of people, processes,and organisation–should be appliedconsistently, at scale, in line with benefit-cost analysis. •Automate Offensive & Defensive Tools For All Of Society–encouragedata,information, and knowledge sharing, provide anopen-source intelligence(OSINT)framework to help galvanise citizen action and support,citizens areempoweredto easily notify and impede fraudsters,and anti-fraudauthorities commission and use large-scale, automated systems for offenceand defence.•Nurture Global, Grassroots Coalitions-purposeful cooperation is sought with National NGOs and health authorities, international bodies, internationalpayment providers, Big Tech firms, and high-fraud nations.•Actively Provide A National Identity Infrastructure-incentivising thedevelopment of common identity systems infrastructure for use by thegeneral public and by government in relations with citizens.•Grow A Victim-Oriented, Zero-Tolerance, Anti-Fraud Culture-anti-fraudauthorities treat victims as they themselves would wish to be treated, in acompassionate and open manner, the public actively involved in anti-fraudwork with feedback on the progress of prosecution and recovery, andeveryone jointlysharing knowledge andcelebrating successes.•Evaluate & Evolve–recognising that fraud evolves swiftly and thus counter-fraud needs to as well. Recognising thatsome low-level fraudmay serve apurpose of inoculationis not incompatible withzero-tolerance. 'Fraud is good' only if it helps us to figure out what needs fixing,i.e.,that welearn from itand strengthen our defences. Contents 1.Why This Report?........................................................................................6Background..................................................................................................6Objective & Scope........................................................................................7Methodology...............................................................................................82.Assessment Of The Fraud Landscape........................................................10Fraud In England & Wales..........................................................................10Categories of Fraud....................................................................................11Victims of Fraud.........................................................................................14The Motivation Of Fraudsters....................................................................153.Trends Affecting Fraud..............................................................................184.Four Scenarios For The Future Of Fraud....................................................20Scenario 1-Crumbling Capacity.....................