新工业时代：为欧洲工业竞争力量身定制的电气化途径

Tailored electrification pathwaysfor Europe’s industrial competitiveness Content Context and objectives01Project approach and methodology02Findings03Conclusions04An ecosystem approach05 Context andobjectives Electrification is the catalystfor a resilient, competitiveand climate-neutral industry,shielding us from fossil fuelvolatility while driving forwarda sustainable future. competitiveness, reduce exposure toexternal volatility and decarbonise. Thepath to electrification is well-trodden forprocesses which require low-mediumtemperatures (below 500 degrees) withmature technologies available e.g. heatpumps or electric boilers, but morechallenging for high-temperatureprocess (above 500 degrees) wheretechnologies are less mature, e.g.electrical crackers for chemicals.Therefore, this study explores differentindustrial archetypes to understand thecompetitiveness of industrialelectrification vis-a-vis fossil fuelprocesses and highlight potentialactions required to support it. A secure energy supply isessential for industry to flourish.European reliance on fossil fuelimports exposes our industriesto heightened volatility of fueland affects electricity prices. The European Union is also drivingtowards climate-neutrality by 2050.Industry represents over 20% of carbonemissions (2022), as the third largestsector behind energy supply anddomestic transportation1. Industrialelectrification, supplied by net zerogeneration technologies, creates anopportunity for industry to increase Climate impact EU role as innovation leader Sovereignty benefits Why industrial sectorelectrification matters Europe is heating at twice the global rateand will have to learn to live in a climatethat is 3 degrees warmer, even in thebest-case scenario where global warmingis limited to the Paris Agreementthreshold of 1.5 degrees3- resulting inexponentially more heatwaves and otherextreme weather events. Between 1980and 2023, weather- and climate-relatedextreme weather events causedeconomic losses of €738 billion in theEuropean Union, with over €162 billion(22%) between 2021 and 20234. Threequarters of industrial CO2emissions resultfrom burning fossil fuels that provideprocess heat. By 2035, 60-90% ofindustrial energy demand could bedirectly electrified, with technologiesreadily available today or underdevelopment5.To achieve climateneutrality by 2050, immediate action isrequired. IEA analysis found that clean energy(manufacturing, deployment andequipment sales) accounted for 10% ofglobal GDP growth in 20236. TheEuropean Union is projected to accountfor over a third of heat pumpmanufacturing capacity by 2030, almostdoubling from 18% currently7. As newelectrification technologies are rapidlydeployed, Europe has the potential todrive innovation and establish itself as aglobal player. Similarities could be drawnto offshore wind where Europeanmanufacturers benefitted from firstmover advantage with Denmark installingthe first offshore wind farm in 1991 - andcontinue to hold leadership inmanufacturing of key turbinecomponents, as well as in thefoundations and cables industry. In 2023 and 2024, fossil fuel imports costthe EU over €350bn annually2, following arecord amount in 2022 of over €600bn2,exposing industry to geopoliticalvolatilities (i.e. a loss of supply or volatileprices). Industrial electrification improvesenergy efficiency, lowers carbon cost,lowers exposure to import dependencyand increases European and industrialresilience. Electrification of industrialsectors is critical to reinforceEurope’s sovereignty, realiseeconomic benefits, addressclimate impact and enhance itsrole as an innovation leader Economic benefits From a total cost of ownershipperspective, this study demonstrates thatthere is a path towards competitiveness(where electrification outcompetes fossilfuel alternatives), with some industriesalready there. Electrolysers achieved a 66% reductionbetween 2000 and 2005, as they wentfrom prototype to deployment11.Unlocking these levels of reduction, forindustrial applications, presents anopportunity to increase thecompetitiveness of electrification. Additional support may be requiredthrough favourable policy frameworks todrive innovation and scaling oninnovative solutions to commercialapplication. Technology costs Objectives of this report Today, only 4% of Europe’s industrialprocess heat is generated byelectricity8. Technologies readilyavailable today, such as heat pumps,electrical boilers and electric arcfurnaces, could already deliver morethan 60% of the 1,861 TWh of annualprocess heating energy demand9. Forsome very high temperatureapplications, electrificationtechnologies currently represent ahigher CapEx cost than fossil fuelcomparators as they are still at the startof their journey. The report explores how the c ostsrelating to the elec trific ation ofproc ess heat, in three sc enariosthat are used to test the boundaryc onditions of different futures,c ompared to the fossil fuel- basedmanufac turing proc es