CMC Markets：新预测，目标价维持不变

- FY26 cons. 2025A22.6011.5x22.60% changevs cons.346.95%90.915%23.912%12.012% 2026E2027E22.6022.8011.5x11.4x23.90-FY27e newFY27 cons.vs cons.-1%353.0352.70%-7%85.390.3-6%-5%22.823.7-4%-6%11.411.9-4% Julian Roberts * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7548 5316 | jroberts1@jefferies.comTom Mills * | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7029 8478 | tom.mills@jefferies.comLaura Gris Trillo, CFA * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7029 8988 | lgristrillo@jefferies.comFangfei Li, ACA * | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7029 8704 | fli@jefferies.com The Long View: CMC MarketsInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferWe assume CFD revenue growth of 2% CAGR from FY25A-28E, well belowlong-term industry growth rates of 8-9% CAGR from 2008 to 2019 (pre-pandemic).Weassume stockbroking/B2B revenue growth of c.5%CAGR fromFY25A-28E.We have interest income flat at c. £40m, assuming rate changes and cashbalance growth offset each other.These assumptions put our net operating income (NOI) forecasts at 2%CAGR from FY25 - FY28E.Our PT implies CMC trades on c.12x FY26E EPS, roughly in line with peers.Base Case,275p, +6%CFDrevenue growth of c.2%CAGR fromFY25A-28E.Stockbroking revenue growth of c. 5% CAGR overthe same period driven by the ANZ white-labeldeal, subsequent purchase of the ANZ clientbase and the development of platforms in the UKand Singapore.PBTmargin remains relatively low by paststandards at c. 25%.Our DCF produces a 275p PT using 13% discountrate, a 2% terminal growth and adding back cash.That equates to 12x FY26 EPS.Sustainability MattersTop material issue:Customer care and protection; business ethics and governance.Company targets/metrics:In FY22 CMCX hired a Group Head of Sustainability and conducted itsfirst materiality review. Customer education is being prioritised, and products are being establishedto allow customers to achieve their own investment goals. Emissions of CO2e were reduced 9% inabsolute terms in 2022 vs 2021 and 19% in tonnes per FTE.Questions for management:How will you reach carbon negativity by 2030? Will customer care andprotection affect the P&L?Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,350p, +35%CFDrevenue growth of c.10%CAGR fromFY23A-29E.PBT margin expansion to c. 30% by FY27E.Our DCF produces a 350p PT, which would be15.5x our FY26E upside scenario forecasts. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View4003503002502001501005020252024Downside Scenario,100p, -62%CFDrevenue growth of 0%CAGR fromFY25A-28E.Stockbroking revenue growth of 2% CAGR overthe same period.PBT margins decline to single digits in FY27E.5x earnings gives a PT of 100p.CatalystsLate July trading updateFurther B2B deal wins 2 Exhibit 2 - P&L forecasts.£m unless statedCFD & spread betting net trading revenueStockbroking net trading revenueInterest incomeSundry incomeNet operating incomeNet staff costs (ex. variable renumeration)IT costsSales & marketingPremisesLegal & professionalRegulatory feesDepreciation & amortisationOtherOperating costs (ex. variable renumeration)Variable renumerationTotal operating costsEBITDAMarginOperating profitFinance costsProfit before taxMarginTaxTax rateProfit after taxEPS (p)DPS (p)Source: Company data, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 3 - Balance sheet forecasts.£m unless statedASSETSNon-current assetsIntangible assetsProperty, plant & equipmentDeferred tax assetsFinancial investmentsTrade & other receivablesTotal non-current assetsCurrent assetsTrade & other receivablesDerivative financial instrumentsFinancial investmentsCurrent tax recoverable/otherAmounts due from brokersCash & cash equivalentsTotal current assetsTotal assetsLIABILITIESCurrent liabilitiesTrade & other payablesDerivatives financial instrumentsBorrowingsLease liabilitiesShort-term provisionsTotal current liabilitiesNon-current liabilitiesTrade & other payablesBorrowingsLease liabiltiiesDeferred tax liabilitiesLong-term provisionsTotal non-current liabilitiesTotal liabilitiesEquityShare capitalShare premiumOwn shares held in trustOther reservesRetained earningsTotal equityTotal equity & liabiliitesSource: Company data, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 4 - Cash flow forecasts.£m unless statedProfit before taxAdjustments for:Interest incomeFinance costsDepreciationOther non-cash itemsChanges in working capitalCash generated from operationsNet interest incomeTax paidNet cash generated from operating activitiesCash flows from investing activitiesPurchase of property, plant & equipmentInvestment in intangible assetsProceeds from disposal of intangible assetsPurchase of financial investmentsProceeds from maturity of financ