生物多样性与净零目标之间的土地利用竞争加拿大案例研究2025

Land-Use Competitionbetween Biodiversityand Net Zero Goals A case study of Canada INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement and muchmore. Through its work,the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhancethe reliability,affordability andsustainability of energyin its32Member countries,13Association countriesand beyond. IEAAssociationcountries: IEAMembercountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract Meeting global targets for energy, climate, and biodiversity conservation has majorimplications for land use. To ensure that the tripling of renewable energy capacity by2030 aligns with the goal of protecting 30% of the planet’s land and water by the samedate, robust mechanisms that direct solar and wind projects away from the world’smost biodiverse areas are needed. To address the potential impacts of renewabledevelopment on biodiversity, the IEA developed the Renewable Energy and Land-Use Model (REALM), which identifies areas of overlap between renewable projects,critical mineral mining, and conservation priorities. Using Canada as a case study,this report highlights areas of potential land-use conflict and shows how the countrycan reach its 30% by 2030 target without significantly hindering the wind and solardevelopment needed to achieve its net zero targets. Key points Achievingglobal energy,climate and biodiversity conservation targetssimultaneously has significant implications for land use.At the 28th UnitedNations Climate Change conference (COP28) in 2023, nearly200 countries set atarget to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. Based on an assessment by theInternationalEnergy Agency(IEA),tripling the capacity of renewables globallyrequires allocating up to an additional 600 000 km² of land – an area the size ofFrance – to utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind power by 2030, and 2 million km²by 2050. In parallel, the IEA estimates thatdemand for key energy transition minerals– cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, nickel and rare earth elements (REEs) – isprojected to increase at least fivefold by 2030, requiring more land for mining andprocessingthese minerals.At the same time,the Kunming-Montreal GlobalBiodiversity Framework aims to protect 30% of the world's land by 2030, requiring anadditional 20 million km² of land – an area slightly larger than South America – to beset aside for conservation. The IEA Renewable Energy and Land-Use Model (REALM) identifies potentialoverlaps between renewables development, energy transition minerals miningand biodiversity conservation.Natural Resources Canada and the IEA partneredto develop this analytical framework capable of highlighting where solar, wind andcritical mineral development risk overlapping with important areas for biodiversityconservation around the world, building on Canada’s leadership inproviding open-source geospatial informationon land use, resource distribution and ecosystems atrisk. The new tool compiles 15 global geospatial datasets covering the resourcedistribution for solar, wind and mineral deposits with datasets on biodiversity and otherland-use designations to help resolve competition between various land uses. Thisanalysis is not intended to provide specific recommendations on which lands toprotect and which to develop, nor does it reflect an endorsement from the Governmentof Canada on the metrics and definitions chosen. It rather serves as an example tohighlight areas of potential conflict based on the resources and physical attributes ofthe land. This model can inform a wide array of actors – such as developers searchingfor sites with high potential away from biodiversity hotspots, or governments andutilities looking to pre-screen that align with land-use objectives and auction them todevelopers – and was designed to be applicable in regions around the world. The amount of land required for renewables and critical mineral mining en routeto meeting Canada’s net zero by 2050 target is small relative to the totalresource potential.By 2050, Canada will need over 50 GW of solar and nearly80 GW of wind, together requiring up to 15 000 km2of land, an area that is only 1%of the country