没有快速解决方案：希腊的复苏和韧性计划以及外部立场2025

No Quick Fix: TheRecovery and ResiliencePlan and ExternalPosition in Greece Zamid Aligishiev and Robert Blotevogel WP/25/110 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025JUN IMF Working PaperWHD No Quick Fix: The Recovery and Resilience Plan and External Position in GreecePrepared byZamid Aligishiev and RobertBlotevogel* Authorized for distribution by Gustavo AdlerJune2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:Greece has coped with large current account deficits and negative net foreign assets for a longtime. Now, the country has anopportunity to address this vulnerability through the European Union’s Recoveryand Resilience Facility (RRF) and its associated Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP). The plan involves largepublic investments and reforms, aimed at boosting Greece’s long-term potential. The crucial question is: canthis ambitious plan fix Greece's external imbalances over the long run? Using a small open-economy model,we track how the RRP may affect savings, investment, and external balances. We find that: (i) a successfulRRP/RRF can correct most of Greece’s external imbalances,through a large increase in public savings; (ii) theRRP/RRF is no magic bullet, as prudent macroeconomic policies will remain necessary to lock-in the positiveeffects over the long run. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Aligishiev, Z., and R. Blotevogel. 2025. Saving for stability: Greece’s Recoveryand Resilience Plan and its impact on the external position. Working PaperWP/25/110. International MonetaryFund, Washington D.C. No Quick Fix: The Recovery andResilience Plan and ExternalPosition in Greece Prepared byZamid AligishievandRobert Blotevogel1 Contents 1.Introduction............................................................................................................................................5Related literature............................................................................................................................................72.Greece’s external position....................................................................................................................83.National savings and the RRP/RRF...................................................................................................104.Modelling the domestic savings and the external position.............................................................12Production....................................................................................................................................................12Households..................................................................................................................................................13Relative prices..............................................................................................................................................14External sector.............................................................................................................................................16Fiscal rule and debt repayment....................................................................................................................16Private capital inflows...................................................................................................................................18Exports penetration and the terms of trade..................................................................................................185.The RRP/RRF shock and model parameters....................................................................................206.Baseline results...................................................................................................................................247.Policy experiments..............................................................................................................................28Scenario 1: Fiscal slippages.........................................................................................................................28Scenario 2: Unproductive capital inflows......................................................................................................29Scenario 3: Smaller export penetration........................................................................................................297.Discussion and conclusion................................................................................................................33Annex I. RRF implementation in