印度保险：监管放松的早期迹象

India Equities Insurance Earlysignsofeasingregulations IndiaInsurance Mediareportssuggestthatthegovernmenthasaskedpublicsectorbankstoprioritiseinsurancedistribution Easingregulations,lowinterestrateenvironmentandsteadyequitymarketsarekeypositivegrowthdriversfortheindustry GrowthtrendsinIndividualAPEimprovedfortheindustryinMay2025;HDFCLIFEandAMLIgrewfasterthanpeers Regulationeasingwouldbepositive:Thegrowthfromthebancassurancechannelhasbeenmoderatinggivenhigherscrutinyfromtheregulatorandgovernment.However,therehasbeenasharpchangeintheviewaroundthebancassuranceregulations.InNovember2024,therewerereports(CNBCTV-18,28Nov2025)onlimitingbusinessfromthebancassurancechannel.Further,reportssuggestedthattheregulatorwaslookingtochangethecommissionstructureforbanks(CNBCTV-18,6May2025).Wehadreportedthatthechanges,ifimplemented,itwouldbenegativeforthebancachannel(Aslowerstart,13May2025).However,asperthelatestreport,thegovernmenthasaskedpublicsectorbankstoprioritiseinsurancedistributionalongsidewithitscorebankingbusiness(CNBCTV-18,9June2025).Insurerscannowlooktogrowfasterthroughthebancassurancechannel.Additionally,suchactionsalsoimproveinvestorconfidenceonthesectorandtheregulatoryoutlook,inourview. Growthmomentumisimproving:IndividualAnnualisedPremiumEquivalent(APE)fortheindustrywasupby2.6%y-o-yinMay2025.Forprivateinsurers,itgrewbyc7%y-o-y,animprovementfromc2%y-o-yinApril2025.Amonglargeinsurers,AMLI(+25%y-o-y)andHDFCLIFE(+15%y-o-y)grewfasterthanpeersinindividualAPE.SBILIFE(+4%)andBALIC(+1%)continuedtoseemutedgrowth.IPRUreportedadeclineinindividualAPE(down14%y-o-y)largelyduetobaseeffect,inourview.Smallerprivateinsurersgrewatc9%y-o-y,fasterthanlargeprivateinsurers.WeexpectAPEgrowthtoremainrange-boundin1HFY26duetohighbaseimpact,butitshouldpickupsharplyin2HFY26asthebasebecomefavourable,attractivenessofnon-participatingsavingsproductsimprovesandcreditdisbursementsinunsecuredloansincrease. Numbersofpolicies(NoP)soldisstabilising.OneofthefactorsaffectingthegrowthapartfromhighbaseandslowersaleoflinkedproductsislackofgrowthinNoPsold.NoPsolddeclinedby2%forprivateinsurersinMay2025.However,thiswasbetterthantheaverage7%declineinthepastthreemonths.Amonglargeinsurers,HDFCLIFEandIPRUareseeinglesspressureinNoPsold.LICIcontinuedtoseeadeclineinitsNoP.AsteadygrowthinNoPwillbecrucialforsustainablegrowthmomentumforthesector. Marginoutlookremainspositive:MostofthelargeinsurershavealreadyseentheuptickinVNBVmarginsin4QFY25astheshareoflinkedproductsmoderated.WeexpectmargintoimproveinFY26easinsurersare(i)focusingonhighmarginnon-linkedproducts,(ii)growthrecoversincreditlinkedprotectionproducts,(iii)increaseinsumassuredand(iv)highriderattachments(seeEarningsclosertoinflection,9June25). 10June2025 RahilShah* Analyst,IndiaFinancials HSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(India)PrivateLimited rahil.shah@hsbc.co.in +912266283719 AbhishekMurarka* SeniorAnalyst,Financials HSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(India)PrivateLimited abhishek.murarka@hsbc.co.in +919619964653 GauravSharma* Analyst,InsuranceandDiversifiedFinancialsHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(India)PrivateLimited gaurav11.sharma@hsbc.co.in +912222682011 *Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulations HSBCGlobalResearchPodcasts Listentoourinsights Findoutmore Disclosures&Disclaimer ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit. Issuerofreport:HSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(India)PrivateLimited ViewHSBCGlobalResearchat: https://www.research.hsbc.com Trendsforthelifeinsurancesector 1:APEtrendfortheindustry2:APEtrendforprivateinsurers 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% May-23Aug-23Nov-23Feb-24May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25 May-25 -20% 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 130% 100% 70% 40% 10% -20% May-23Aug-23Nov-23Feb-24May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25 May-25 -50% IndustryAPE(INRbn) y-o-ygrowth(%,RHS) PrivateAPE(INRbn) y-o-ygrowth(%,RHS) Source:IRDAI,HSBCSource:IRDAI,HSBC 3:IndividualAPEtrendfortheindustry4:IndividualAPEtrendforprivateinsurers 200 150 100 50 0 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% May-23Aug-23Nov-23Feb-24May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25 May-25 -20% 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 100% 70% 40% 10% -20% May-23Aug-23Nov-23Feb-24May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25 May-25 -50% IndustryIndividualAPE(INRbn) y-o-ygrowth(%,RHS) PrivateIndividualAPE(INRbn) y-o-ygrowth(%,RHS) Source:IRDAI,HSBCSource:IRDAI,HSBC 5:Smallprivateinsurersgrewby9%y-o-y,fasterthanlargeprivateinsurers(up7%y-o-y);inindividualAPE,LICIreportedac7%y-o-ydecline 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24 Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25 May-25 -20% TopprivateinsurersOtherprivateinsurersLIC Note:Topprivateinsurersincludesixinsurers:AXISMAXLIFE,BALIC,TATAAIA,SBILIFE,HDFCLIFE(includingExideLife),andIPRU.Source:LifeInsuranceCouncil,IRDAI,HSBC 6:Trendinnumberofindividualpoliciessoldbytheindustry