成本削减/效率提升加速，关注新车型/BSA

EquityResearchReport NIO(NIOUS) CostCuts/EfficiencyGainsPacedUp,WatchNewModels/BSA HuataiResearchCompanyUpdateRating(Maintain):OVERWEIGHT Analyst SONGTingting SACNo.S0570522110001songtingting021619@htsc.comSFCNo.BTK945+(86)2128972228 9June2025│USPassengerVehicles NIO’s1Q25revenuewasRMB12.0bn(+21%yoy,-39%qoq)andattributablenetlosswasRMB6.9bn(+31%yoy,-3%qoq).Revenueslightlymissedthecompany'sestimateduetointensecompetitioninthebatteryelectricvehicle(BEV)market.Lookingto2H25,wesuggestmonitoringsalesramp-upsofnewmodelssuchastheOnvoL90andL80,alongsideongoingcostcutsandefficiencygains,whichinourviewcouldbringmarginalimprovements.MaintainOVERWEIGHT. Proprietarypartsandcomponentsharingtofurtherlowercosts In1Q25,NIOdelivered42,000newvehicles(+40%yoy,-42%qoq).Thecompany'sGPMforthequarterwas7.6%(+2.7/-4.1ppyoy/qoq),withtheautomobileGPMat10.2%(+1.0/-2.9ppyoy/qoq).WeattributetheqoqautomobileGPMdeclineprimarilytoloweroutputandrisingmanufacturingcosts.Forautomobilerevenuealone,theper-vehicleaveragesellingprice(ASP)/grossprofitwereRMB236,000/RMB22,000(-15.4/+37.5%yoy,-1.8/-31.3%qoq).For1Q25, SG&A/R&Dexpenseratioswere36.6/26.4%(+6.3/-2.5ppyoy,+11.8/+8.0ppqoq),reflectingqoqreductionsdrivenbyinitialyieldsoforganizationrestructuring.For2Q25,weexpectcontinuedefficiency/qualitygains,withproprietarychipsandcomponentsharingsavingmanufacturingcosts,whichinourviewcouldfurtherlowercostsandexpenses. Onvomonthlysalescouldsurpass25,000unitsin2H25 InMay2025,NIOlaunchedthe‘5566’refreshedseries,equippingallmodelswiththeShenjiNX9031chip,helpingtoensureasmoothtransitionbetweennewandlegacymodelsandsustainingsales-volumecontributions.In2H25,NIOplanstolaunchtheOnvoL90(Q3)andL80(Q4).TheL90,builtonanewproprietaryEVplatformwitha900Vhigh-voltagearchitecture,features36systemupgradesforenhancedcabinandstoragespace.TheL80,amid-tolarge-sizedSUV,complementstheflagshipL90andcontributestoadifferentiatedproductmatrix.WebelievetheL90andL80couldleveragespaciousinteriors,900Varchitecture,andattractivepricestocapturemarketshareintheRMB200,000-300,000family-facingBEVsegment. Worldmodeldeployedinallmodels,BSAexpansionpacingup ThefirstversionofNIOWorldModel(NWM)wasfullydeployedinlateMay2025,enhancingsafetyandtheuserexperience;precisioninhighwayandurbanNOAscenariosimprovedby40%,withactivesafetyresponsetimesreducedto0.1seconds.In2025,NIOisacceleratingeffortsinitsbattery-swapalliance(BSA)withexternalpartners,whichinourviewcouldcontinueexpandingitscollaborationbase,reducecapex,andstrengthenbrandmomentum.Thisdifferentiatedenergyreplenishmentnetworkshouldhelpsolidifyuserretentionandfundamentalsforservice-revenuegrowth. Earningsforecastsandvaluation Wemaintainour2025/2026/2027attributablenetprofitforecastsatRMB-14.5/-7.7/-1.9bn.WevalueNIOat0.65x2025EPS(previous:0.7x),belowtheaverageof1.4xforLiAutoandXPengonBloombergandWindconsensus,forourtargetpriceofUSD4.09(previous:USD4.64).MaintainOVERWEIGHT.Our55%valuationdiscounttoitspeers(previous:50%)reflectsintensecompetitioninthepremiumBEVmarket,uncertaintyinnew-modelsales-volumeramp-ups,higherspendingonadditionalbattery-swapnetworksandpendingprofitabilityimprovements. Risks:slowerEVdemandgrowthandweakerdemandforsmartconfigurationsthanweexpect. Targetprice(USD):4.09 Keydata Targetprice(USD)4.09 Closingprice(USDasof6Jun)3.63 Potentialupside-/+(%)13 Mktcap(USDmn) 8,140 6mavgdailyval(USDmn) 210.66 52wkpricerange(USD) 3.02-7.71 BVPS(USD) 0.39 Shareperformance (%)NIOS&P50050 29 8 (14) (35) Jun-24Oct-24Feb-25Jun-25Source:S&P FinancialsYE31Dec 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E Revenue(RMBmn) 55,618 65,732 100,968 125,541 149,923 +/-% 12.89 18.18 53.61 24.34 19.42 Netprofitattr.toparent(RMBmn) (21,147) (20,273) (14,464) (7,714) (1,939) +/-% 52.11 (4.13) (28.65) (46.67) (74.86) EPS(diluted,RMB) (9.43) (9.04) (6.45) (3.44) (0.86) ROE(%) (79.84) (128.66) (241.64) (128.56) (32.28) PE(x) (0.05) (0.06) (0.08) (0.15) (0.58) PB(x) 0.04 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 EVEBITDA(x) (3.01) (4.06) (5.29) (9.18) (18.42) Source:Companyannouncements,HuataiResearchestimates Fig.1:NIOPE-BandsFig.2:NIOPB-Bands (USD)38 19 ━━━━━NIO 25x (USD)47 35 ━━━━━NIO 13.4x 0 (19) (38) (56) Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Dec-24 20x 15x10x5x 23 12 0 Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Dec-24 10.5x 7.7x 4.9x 2.1x Source:S&P,HuataiResearchSource:S&P,HuataiResearch Fullfinancials Incomestatement Cashflowstatement YE31Dec(RMBmn) 2023 2024 2025E2026E2027E YE31Dec(RMBmn) 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E Revenue 55,618 65,732 100,968125,541149,923 EBITDA (23,927) (25,098) (20,161) (12,618) (7,485) Costofgoodssold (52,566) (59,239) (87,314)(102,283)(118,171) Financecosts 689.11 713.56 957.82 1,002 946.87 Grossmargin 3,052 6,493 13,654 23,257 31,752 Changesinworkingcap 7,917 (3,371) 5,630 2,328 (12,299) Sellinganddistributioncost (12,885) (15,741) (17,266) (18,831) (20,989) Tax 260.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Adminexpenses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Others 2,687 3,799 3,038 8,444 (2,568) Otherincome/expenses (12,784) (12,625) (11,562) (12,056) (11,970) Operatingcashflow (12,374) (23,957) (10,536)