铅月报：供增需弱&成本托底 铅市宽幅震荡

投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号李婷021-68556855li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509黄蕾huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692高慧gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785王工建wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301赵凯熙zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03112296投资咨询号：Z0021040 核心观点及策略约束。需求增速稳而不强。 2/18目录一、铅市行情回顾...........................................................4二、铅基本面分析...........................................................42.1铅矿供应情况.............................................................42.1.1全球铅精矿供应缓慢恢复.................................................42.1.2铅精矿加工费环比回落，铅精矿进口量环比减少............................62.2精炼铅供应情况...........................................................72.2.1全球精炼铅供应增速平缓................................................72.2.24月电解铅产量不及预期，5月供应恢复为主...............................82.2.3废旧电瓶重心上移，再生铅炼厂逐步复产..................................92.3精炼铅需求情况.........................................................112.3.1全球精炼铅需求情况....................................................112.3.2铅蓄电池消费淡季，板块有所分化.......................................123.2 .1沪伦比价不利于铅锭及电池出口.........................................122.3.2 .2政策引导，铅蓄电池消费前景边际改善.................................142.4海外库存先减后增，国内存累库压力.......................................15三、总结与后市展望........................................................16 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 3/18图表目录图表1沪铅主连及LME三月期铅走势..................................................................................4图表2 2024-2025年海外铅矿产量变化（万吨）...................................................................5图表3全球铅矿月度产量情况................................................................................................5图表4国内铅矿产量情况........................................................................................................5图表5 2024-2025年国内主要铅矿产量变化（万吨）...........................................................6图表6内外铅矿加工费情况....................................................................................................7图表7铅矿进口盈亏情况........................................................................................................7图表8铅矿进口情况................................................................................................................7图表9银精矿进口情况............................................................................................................7图表10 2024-2025年海外部分炼厂产量变化情况（万吨）.................................................8图表11全球精炼铅月度产量..................................................................................................8图表12电解铅产量情况..........................................................................................................9图表13原生铅炼厂开工率......................................................................................................9图表14 2024-2025年国内原生铅新扩建产能（万吨）.........................................................9图表15再生精铅产量情况....................................................................................................10图表16再生铅企业开工率....................................................................................................10图表17废电池价格易涨难跌................................................................................................10图表18再生铅企业利润情况................................................................................................10图表19 2024-2025年国内再生铅新扩建产能（万吨）.......................................................10图表20全球精炼铅月度需求情况........................................................................................11图表21全球精炼铅月度供需缺口情况................................................................................11图表22美国汽车销量情况....................................................................................................12图表23欧元区汽车销量情况................................................................................................12图表24铅蓄电池周度开工率情况........................................................................................13图表25铅蓄电池出口情况....................................................................................................13图表26精炼铅出口情况........................................................................................................13图表27精炼铅出口盈亏情况................................................................................................13图表28精炼铅进口情况........................................................................................................13图表29精炼铅进口盈亏情况................................................................................................13图表30铅酸蓄电池终端消费占比........................................................................................15图表31汽车产量情况............................................................................................................15图表32汽车保有量................................................................................................................15图表33电动自行车保有量....................................................................................................15图表34 LME库存先减后增..................................