有色金属行业周报（20250602-20250606）：美国铜铝关税政策催化，多因素驱动贵金属大幅上涨

有色金属2025年06月08日推荐 （维持）证券分析师：马金龙邮箱：majinlong@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360522120003证券分析师：刘岗邮箱：liugang@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360522120002证券分析师：李梦娇邮箱：limengjiao@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360525040002行业基本数据股票家数(只)125总市值(亿元)29,498.53流通市值(亿元)25,644.48相对指数表现%1M6M绝对表现2.8%4.3%相对表现1.1%6.8%相关研究报告《有色金属行业周报（20250526-20250530）：国内铝库存持续去化，铝价受支撑》2025-06-02《有色金属行业周报（20250519-20250523）：几内亚撤销矿权被列为战略储备区，支撑矿石价格上2025-05-25《有色金属行业周报（20250512-20250516）：几内亚大型铝土矿停产，价格或受强支撑》2025-05-1824/0624/0824/1125/0125/032024-06-11~2025-06-06有色金属沪深300华创证券研究所 行》-16%-4%8%20% 占比%0.022.943.2212M8.8%1.0%25/06 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号致。❑观点：我们认为上周缅甸锡矿恢复出口的传闻导致锡价大幅回落，但锡矿复产实际进展会比较，短期矿端紧缺现象仍未缓解，冶炼厂仍以较低开工率运行，而国内库存降至相对低位，海外库存则持续在低位，短期锡价仍有支撑。❑2、股票观点：看好小金属板块中长期的表现❑推荐未来锡精矿、白银产量有明确增长潜力的兴业银锡；建议关注受益于钨价格弹性的章源钨业、中钨高新、厦门钨业；建议关注受益于行业整合及战略金属重估的中重稀土标的中国稀土、广晟有色；建议关注受益于出口管制边际缓解，备库驱动订单增长的稀土永磁标的金力永磁、中科三环、正海磁材、宁波韵升。❑风险提示：关税政策的不确定性；海外经济衰退超预期；国内经济复苏不及预期。 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号目录一、本周行情回顾...................................................................................................................6二、铝行业重要数据追踪.......................................................................................................6（一）生产数据...............................................................................................................6（二）库存数据...............................................................................................................8（三）毛利.......................................................................................................................8（四）进出口...................................................................................................................9（五）表观消费量...........................................................................................................9（六）现货交易.............................................................................................................10（七）下游开工情况.....................................................................................................10（八）上游运行情况.....................................................................................................101、铝土矿情况...........................................................................................................112、氧化铝情况...........................................................................................................12（九）宏观库存周期.....................................................................................................13三、铜行业重要数据追踪.....................................................................................................13（一）生产数据.............................................................................................................13（二）库存数据.............................................................................................................14（三）下游开工情况.....................................................................................................15（四）进出口.................................................................................................................16（五）实际消费量.........................................................................................................16（六）冶炼数据.............................................................................................................17四、小金属数据跟踪.............................................................................................................17（一）锡行业数据.........................................................................................................17（二）锑行业数据.........................................................................................................17五、风险提示.........................................................................................................................18 3 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号图表目录图表1本周金属价格涨跌.....................................................................................................6图表2中国电解铝开工产能（万吨）.................................................................................6图表3中国电解铝日均产量（万吨）.................................................................................6图表4中国电解铝日度产量（万吨）.................................................................................7图表5中国电解铝运行产能（万吨）.................................................................................7图表6全球电解铝日均产量（万吨）.................................................................................7图表7北美洲电解铝日均产量（万吨）.............................................................................7图表8西欧+中欧电解铝日均产量（万吨）.......................................................................7图表9俄罗斯+东欧日均产量（万吨）...............................................................................7图表10国内电解铝社会库存（万吨）...............................................................................8图表11 SHFE电解铝库存（万吨）.....................................................................................8图表12 LME全球铝库存（万吨）......................................................................................8图表13中国电解铝吨铝利润（元/吨）