GS US TMT 10 张图20250609

多头认为保守的下半年收入指引为超预期和上调财报创造了良好条件，有助于改善市场对MDB长期定位（Mongo DB超过Postgres）的看法2. AI adoption ↑ .. AI adoption byrms has made notable progress thisquarter, with 9.2% of USrms currently using AI to produce goods orservices(vs. 7.4% in Q4).Within industries, education, information,nance, and professionalrms reported the largest increases inadoption rates(over 3pp since last quarter).see GIR tracker for more(link)2. AI采用率↑ ..本季度企业采用AI取得显著进展，目前有9.2%的美国企业使用AI来生产商品或服务（相比第四季度的7.4%）。在各行业中，教育、信息、金融和专业服务企业的采用率增长最大（较上季度增长超过3个百分点）。更多详情请参见GIR追踪器（链接） 3. AMZN .. after lagging e-comm and retail peers by ~5-25 pts YTD,Amazon now trades at just a ~1x premium to EBAY on a fwd EV/EBITDAbasis ..so, what could turn the stock around?…. amidst ongoing Tari/ Commerce uncertainty, investors may instead look towards AWS toserve as a potential infection / catalyst into the 2H of the year; on thispoint, consensus is modeling stable y/y AWS growth into the 2H of theyear[to which Bulls will point out the potential for increased capacitycoming online into the 2H, per AMZN mgmt.commentary].3. AMZN ..今年迄今为止，亚马逊在电子商务和零售同行中落后约5-25个百分点，现在其远期EV/EBITDA仅比EBAY高出约1倍溢价..那么，什么因素可能扭转该股走势？….在持续的关税/商业不确定性中，投资者可能会转而关注AWS，作为今年下半年潜在的感染点/催化剂；在这一点上，市场共识预计AWS在今年下半年将保持同比稳定增长[多头将指出，根据AMZN管理层的评论，下半年可能会有新增产能上线。] 4. MU … Micron is having a top 5 week over the last 15 years(up +17%this week)and is now up >60% on a trailing 40-day basis (the fastestascent over a 40-day period since 2009) .. chart below of DRAM spotprices(DDR4 8GB sku)in blue vs MU(vs SOX)performance in white.Alleyes on earnings later this month (6/25).4. MU …美光在过去15年中迎来了排名前五的周表现（本周上涨+17%），目前在过去40天内累计上涨超过60%（这是自2009年以来40天内最快的涨幅）……下方为DRAM现货价格走势图（DDR4 8GB规格）以蓝色表示，MU（相对于SOX）的表现以白色显示。所有人都在关注本月晚些时候（6月25日）的财报。 5. EBAY is now up >100% over the last 18-months … working on abreak-out to new ATHs(chart below) ..what’s fueling the run?!,my bestread is:technicals(positioning, cap return)+ perceived tari‘safehaven’ status + industry tailwinds(e.g. easing Temu competition angst– see GIRmodelingsharply negative y/y Temu GMV growth in the 2H’25)5. EBAY在过去18个月内上涨了超过100%……正努力突破新高点（见下图）……推动上涨的原因是什么？！，我最好的解读是：技术面（仓位，资本回报）+被视为关税“避风港”地位+行业利好（例如缓解Temu竞争压力——见GIR模型预测2025年下半年Temu GMV同比大幅负增长）6. BKNG = UBER … not sure I know what to make of this, but,regardless, this chart surprised me: the market caps of UBER(blue)and BKNG(white)have basically moved in lock-step over the last 5 yrs..fair? foul? neither?6. BKNG = UBER……不确定我该如何看待这个，但无论如何，这张图让我感到惊讶：过去五年里，UBER（蓝色）和BKNG（白色）的市值基本上是同步变化的……公平？不公平？还是都不是？ 7. ANET = battleground .. short-interest in Arista has tripled over thelast ~10-mo to ~25mn shares short(a $2.5bn notional short-base!)withmuch of the debate on how to think about Arista’s premium valuation(mid-30s P/E)relative to cloud titan visibility.7. ANET =战场.. Arista的卖空兴趣在过去约10个月内已增长三倍，达到约2500万股的卖空量（一个25亿美元的名义卖空基数！）关于如何看待Arista的高估值的讨论很多（中30倍市盈率）相对于云巨头的可见性。 8. S&P 2Q performance … all about Power(NRG, GEV, VST, CEG, PWR),Beta(PLTR, COIN) &GenAI(AVGO, NVDA)thus far in 2Q(… vs HC +Energy bottom of the pack)8.标普第二季度表现……全关于电力(NRG, GEV, VST, CEG, PWR),Beta(PLTR, COIN) &GenAI(AVGO, NVDA)迄今为止在第二季度（……相比医疗保健和能源板块表现最差） 9. Summer fun …too soon?... feels like it won’t be long beforeinvestors start looking ahead to the (+) July seasonality that the NDXenjoys,up 16 of 17 years in the month of July, dating back to the GFC(..and June hasn’t beentooshabby over the last 6-7 years ..)9.夏日乐趣……是不是太早了？……感觉投资者很快就会开始关注纳斯达克100指数享有的七月季节性优势，过去17年中有16年七月上涨，可追溯到全球金融危机时期（……而且过去6-7年六月的表现也不算差……） 10. Easy = Higher .. chart below is the NTM P/E multiple of the NDX(blue, LHS)charted against US Financial Conditions(US FCI),inverted(white, RHS)10.越简单=越高..下图为NDX的未来十二个月市盈率倍数（蓝色，左轴）与美国金融状况指数（US FCI）倒置（白色，右轴） Source for all charts: Bloomberg or GIR. GBM Public. Past performance isnot indicative of future performance. 6/6/25.所有图表来源：Bloomberg或GIR。GBM Public。过去的表现不代表未来的表现。2025年6月6日。Peter Callahan彼得·卡拉汉TMT Sector SpecialistTMT行业专家Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities高盛固定收益、货币和大宗商品及股票部门212-902-2659Goldman, Sachs & Co.高盛公司200 West Street, 4th Fl, New York, NY 10282纽约州纽约市西200街4楼，邮编10282Peter.Callahan@gs.com© Copyright 2025 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved.Seewww.gs.com/disclaimer/email-salesandtrading.htmlfor risk disclosure,order handling practices, conflicts of interest and other terms and