纯苯苯乙烯周报

短期震荡为主，高供应仍然是核心问题1.端午节后，原油大幅上涨，支撑苯乙烯绝对价格估值。2.5月开始了一轮来自终端贸易商补库形成的淡季正反馈，当前苯乙烯下游中PS>EPS>ABS，PS改善最为明显。产业链上游液体隐性库存逐步去化，转移到下游固体塑料粒子。ABS受到家电拖累，整体表现一般。PS下游库存结构快速转好，工厂库存压力逐步降低，并且原料备货并不多，当前反而是下游中最好的。EPS工厂目前接到618订单不多也降低了工厂端午节期间开工意愿。关注6月之后淡季下游的补库意愿以及夏天旺季终端消费情况。3.EB高利润逐步刺激高供应，小装置逐步重启；区域物流改变，港口加速累库。周内部分小产能装置、僵尸产能开始陆续讨论重启计划，华东某POSM工厂6月中旬大概率也会出料，苯乙烯供应在高利润刺激之下进一步修复。港口价格偏高，市场持续优化物流，港口到港货源超出预期，加速累库，预计6月底港口或达到10万吨以上库存。短期震荡偏弱为主。4.结论：短期绝对价格震荡为主，关注后续纯苯新装置6-7月落地的情况。 纯苯弱现实：国产快速恢复，港口维持高库存，继续挤压bzn01-0301-1301-2602-0702-1703-0103-1403-2404-0504-1804-2805-1005-2306-0206-1607-0507-2108-0908-2509-1309-2910-1110-2111-0311-1511-2512-0812-2012-30纯苯：产量：中国（周）202220232024202501-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-2804-0804-1904-3005-1105-2206-0206-1406-2607-0907-2208-0408-1708-3009-1109-2410-0710-2011-0211-1511-2712-1012-23纯苯：产能利用率：中国（周）2016201720182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27BZN20182019202020212022202320242025-100001000200030004000500001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-0810-2011-0111-1311-2512-0712-1912-31苯乙烯：纯苯：价差：华东地区（日）2018201920202021202220232024202505101520253001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1504-2805-1105-2406-0606-1907-0207-1507-2808-10纯苯：港口库存：华东地区（周）2014201520162018201920202022202320240100000200000300000400000500000600000纯苯月度进口数量（区域）:中国201520162017201920202021202320242025 纯苯进口超预期，eb下游出口也较多01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31纯苯月度进口数量（区域）:中国20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025-2000002000040000600008000010000012000014000016000018000001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31苯乙烯：出口数量合计：中国（月）20202021202220230500010000150002000025000300003500001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31ABS：出口数量合计：中国（月）2020202120222023 01-0101-1201-2202-0202-1202-2303-0603-1703-2704-0704-1704-2805-1005-2206-0406-1706-3007-1207-2408-0608-1909-0109-1309-2510-08焦化开工率201920202021202220232024202501-0101-1201-2202-0202-1202-2303-0603-1703-2704-0704-1704-2805-1005-2206-0406-1706-3007-1207-2408-0608-1909-0109-13加氢苯利润：山东2019202020212022202320242025加氢苯供应不多 纯苯下游利润01-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-0810-20苯乙烯：纯苯：价差：华东地区（日）2018201920202021202220232024202502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-28BZN20182019202020212022202320242025 己内酰胺01-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-02己内酰胺：生产毛利：中国（日）201820192022202301-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-30现货价:硫酸铵201520162017202120222023 己二酸01-0101-1301-2502-0502-1703-0103-1303-2504-0504-17己二酸：产能利用率：中国（周）20182022-3000-2000-1000010002000300040005000600001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-26己二酸：生产毛利：中国（日）20182022 苯酚01-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-04苯酚：生产毛利：华东地区（日）20182019202320242016201702-0302-1402-2503-0803-1903-3004-1004-2105-02苯酚：产能利用率：中国（周）20162022 苯胺01-0101-1201-2202-0302-1402-2503-1003-222018202201-0101-1201-2202-0202-1202-2303-0603-19聚合MDI：库存：中国（周）20182022 苯乙烯02 苯乙烯当前格局：中性库存、高利润、中性产量01-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27苯乙烯：产能利用率：中国（日）2018201920202021202220232024202505000010000015000020000025000030000035000040000001-0101-1201-2202-0302-1502-2603-1103-2404-0504-1704-3005-1305-2606-0706-1907-0207-1507-2808-0908-2109-0309-1609-2910-1110-2311-0511-1812-0112-1312-24苯乙烯库存2018201920202021202220232024202501-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1504-2805-1005-2306-0506-1907-0307-1607-2908-1108-2409-0609-1810-0110-1410-2711-0911-2212-0412-1712-30苯乙烯：产量：中国（周）2018201920202021202220232024202505000010000015000020000025000030000001-0101-1401-272014202002000040000600008000010000012000014000016000001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1820142020-2000-1000010002000300040005000600001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0710-1910-3111-1211-2412-0612-1812-30苯乙烯：非一体化装置：生产毛利：中国（日）201820192020202120222023202420112012201320142015201620172025 芳烃全球价差：美亚物流价差无法打开，纯苯留在亚洲01-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-1011-2212-0412-1612-29纯苯：美国-韩国20182019202020212022202320242025-2000200400600800100001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-25甲苯：美国-韩国201820192020202220232024-2000200400600800100001-0201-1501-2802-1002-2303-0803-2104-0304-1604-2905-1205-2506-0706-2007-0307-1607-2908-1108-2409-0609-1910-0210-1510-2811-1011-2312-0612-19MX：美国-韩国2018201920202021202220232024202501-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-01韩国统计局:纯苯:出口201820192020202120222023202402000040000