富邑葡萄酒集团（TWE）：众多情况正在发生

2025E2026E2027E2,991.33,098.43,296.93,014.83,179.83,396.5919.2993.01,065.1755.7827.0894.4 Michael Simotas * | Equity Analyst61 2 9364 2994 | msimotas@jefferies.comNaveed Fazal Bawa * | Equity Analyst+61 293642995 | nfbawa@jefferies.comEBITS cut c. 1% in FY25, c. 8% in FY26and c. 11% thereafter -FY25 estimatescut consistent with guidance due to lowerAmericas Premium shipments. We alsoreducedJEFe from FY26 onwards toreflect:1)Lower Penfolds expectations(JEFe: 8% gth in FY26 &FY27 v. guidancefor15%);and 2)weaker expectations Figure 1 - EBITS contribution by segment (FY25e).PenfoldsSource: Jefferies estimatesFigure 2 - TWE's US distribution by state.Source: Treasury Wine Estates June 2024 Luxury Investor Day presentationFigure 3 - Top 10 U.S. Wine Distributors in 2024.DistributorSouthern Glazer's Wine & SpiritsRNDCJohnson Brothers Liquor Co.Breakthru Beverage GroupThe Winebow GroupEmpire DistributorsOpici Family DistributingGeorgia Crown Distributing Co.Heidelberg Distributing Co.MartignettiSource: WineBusiness AnalyticsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. for TWE Americas to due to persistentmarket weakness and potential distributordisruption. We now assume TWE AmericasEBITS declines c. 10% in FY26 (const FX),excl incremental DAOU synergies. PriceTarget reduced from $15.00 to $12.00.2 Figure 4 - Penfolds EBITS growth - JEFe vs. Company guidance.15.5%FY24Source: Company data, Jefferies estimatesFigure 5 - Analysis - net asset value.Asset value analysisInventoryLuxury inventoryPremium/commercial inventory(1) Total inventory valueVineyardsAustraliaUnited StatesNew ZealandItalyFranceTotal owned & leasedless leased vineyards(2) Total owned vineyard value(3) Wineries & packaging plants(5) Asset value: (1) + (2) + (3)(6) Net financial debt(7) Net payablesNet asset value: (5) - (6) - (7)Net asset value per shareSource: Company data, Jefferies estimatesFigure 6 - TWE Financial Summary.Jun yr end (A$m)RevenueEBITDASEBITSGrowthNPAT (underlying)EPS diluted (underlying ¢)GrowthDPS (¢)YieldP/EEV/EBITDASSource: Jefferies estimates, Company data. NB: Post AASB16 basisPlease see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. The Long View: Treasury Wine EstatesInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferTWE has been successfully transformed into something more like an FMCGbusiness — returns, cash flow, and earnings predictability have been betterthan most thought possible, yet growth has been rapid. China tariffs werea setback, but the Group reallocated more wine than expected to othermarkets and the recent removal of China tariffs is a game-changer, in ourview, because it 1) provides elevated growth as supply is built; 2) facilitatespricing power; and 3) improves earnings predictability.Additionally, we like the rationale of the DAOU Vineyards acquisition, asit increases exposure to the high-growth US luxury wine market andaugments TWE's existing portfolio mix in the US$20-40/bottle price points.Base Case,AUD12, +49%Ourestimates allow for upside from Chinareopening due to incremental price increases inFY25, and volume from FY26, and modest EBITSuplift over time.DCF valuation: Base Case PT of A$12.00Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):1) Responsible service & marketing of alcohol. 2) Environmental impact: reduceemissions, packaging, energy consumption, and waste. 3) Ethical treatment of suppliers.Company Target(s):1) 100% of packaging to be recyclable, reusable, or compostable by 2022 and50% of product and outer packaging to be recycled by 2025. 2) 50% women in senior leadership, 30%on Board, and 42% overall by 2025.Qs to Mgmt:1) What is the opportunity in low- and no-alcohol products? 2) What is TWE doing toposition its product mix for climate change? 3) What policies are in place to ensure third-party grapegrowers are treated fairly?Link to Sector FrameworkPlease see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View1413121110987Upside Scenario,AUD13, +61%US premiumisation strategy continues to takeform and generate earnings from better-marginsales. On premise, cellar door and travel retailsales return faster than expected. China marketreopenswith greater-than-expected excessdemand facilitating higher price increases. NSRgrowth targets in DAOU Vineyards for DTC andultra luxury are achieved in excess of earn-outhurdles.Upside Case PT of A$13.00. Downside Scenario,AUD7.5, -7%US premiumisation strategy does not generatereturns as expected. There is delayed recoveryinon-premise,cellar door,and travel retailsales. China market reopens with lower-than-expected excess demand resulting in smallerprice increases. NSR growth targets in DAOUVineyardsfor DTC and