Engie——受益于欧洲容量市场计划和不断提高的盈利质量

F25EF26E8.49.710.38.39.410.030 May 202518.9921.5013%19.12/13.071,432.59Dec7.8%46,12476,1466M12M26.621.916.111.210.510.706/2512001300140015001600 Engie SARatingOutperformPrice TargetENGI.FPAdjusted EPSENGI.FP (EUR)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.increasing earnings qualityEngie has one of the largest gas-fired power fleets in Europe (13.5GW gross, 11.6GWnet).These plants are benefiting from structurally increasing volatility in the energy marketsdue to the rising penetration of uncontrollable renewable electricity sources in the powergeneration system. Essentially, this new renewable production increases the option value ofthe power plants but leads to decreasing production levels, with Engie’s load factors fallingbelow 20% lately.However, Engie is gaining increasing support from capacity marketmechanisms, where power plants receive payments to keep functioning (as opposed tobeing decommissioned), which thusact a revenue floor to cover the current operatingcosts of the plants.We estimate that Engie earned c.€130m in capacity market revenues in FY21,predominantly in France and Italy,corresponding to 10% of its European Flex-Gen EBIT.That figure should have increased to c.€160m in FY24, and we expect it toincrease to c.>€300m from FY27e onwards, given rising prices in Italy and the UK, as well as newcapacities (CCGT power plant and BESS) to be commissioned in Belgium.That shouldrepresent c. 20% of our FY26e-FY29e old Flex-Gen EBIT, with two-thirds of that comingfrom the new Gas Generation subdivision and the remaining third from the new Renewables& BESS subdivision. Furthermore,growing capacity market revenues should improveearnings quality and increase the share of contracted EBITin total old Flex-Gen divisionEBIT from almost 50% in FY24 to >60% from FY26e onwards, on our estimates.Investment ImplicationsWe are reiterating ourOutperformrating on Engie with an unchangedPT of €21.5. Webelieve Engie’s asset portfolio is likely to outperform in a context of structurally increasingenergy market volatility.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 03 Jun 2025 05:00 UTC Completion Date: 02 Jun 2025 11:00 UTC CAGR----------Close DateEDMFYEDiv YieldEV (EUR) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)EDM (%)Relative (%)€22€20€18€16€1406/2409/24 F24AF25EF26E2.251.961.84FinancialsF24AF25EF26EEBITDA (M)14,50613,80113,462EBIT (M)10,3429,4209,114Net Debt (Cash) (M)33,22443,24545,796Dividend/Share1.481.411.33BV/Share (M)14.2514.7315.16 VALUATION COMPS TABLEEXHIBIT 1:Integrated utilities - P/E and dividend yield multiplesMultipleCompanyShare price (€)FY25eIberdrola16.1Enel8.1Engie19.0Iberdrola is covered by Jorge Alonso; Share prices from 31 May 2025Source: Bernstein analysis and estimatesEUROPEAN UTILITIES & CLEAN ENERGY DETAILSINVESTMENT SUMMARYEngie has one of the largest gas-fired power fleets in Europe (13.5GW gross, 11.6GW net).These plants are benefitingfrom structurally increasing volatility in the energy markets due to the rising penetration of uncontrollable renewable electricitysources in the power generation system. Essentially, this new renewable production increases the option value of the powerplants but leads to decreasing production levels, with Engie’s load factors falling below 20% lately.However, Engie is gainingincreasing support from capacity market mechanisms, where power plants receive payments to keep functioning (asopposed to being decommissioned), which thusact a revenue floor to cover the current operating costs of the plants.In this note, we analyse Engie’s exposure to capacity markets across Europe.The company operates flexible thermalgeneration assets in Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. The Netherlands, Portugal and Spain donot run a capacity market yet, although Spain looks set to develop a framework in the coming quarters. Engie also owns andruns hydro-pumped storage capacities in the UK (2.1GW gross. 1.6GW net) that benefit from the capacity market scheme,although with the new reporting structure, both hydro-pumped storage and BESS are reported within the Renewables divisionas opposed to the Flex Gen division until end-FY24.We estimate that Engie earned c.€130m of capacity market revenues in FY21, predominantly in France and Italy,corresponding to 10% of its European Flex-Gen EBIT. That figure should have increased to c.€160m in FY24, and we expectit toincrease to c. >€300m from FY27e onwards, given rising prices in Italy and the UK, as well as new capacities(CCGT power plant and BESS) to be commissioned in Belgium.That should represent c. 20% of our FY26e-FY29e oldFlex-Gen EBIT, with two-thirds of that coming from the new Gas Generation subdivision and the remaining third from the newRenewables & BESS subdivision. Furthermore,growing capacity market revenues should improve earnings quality andincreas