联合健康集团（UNH）：我们对新任首席执行官的三大优先事项的看法以及股东会议的评论

F25E13.42 Jun 2025630.73/248.885,935.94276,424333,5356M(49.7)(1.8)(47.8)06/255000550060006500 RatingOutperformPrice TargetUNHAdjusted EPSUNH (USD)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.comments from shareholder meetingUNH hosted their annual shareholder meeting yesterday. UNH announced that theirearnings date will be July 29th, at which they will provide ‘25 guidance and an initial viewon 26 guidance. The new CEO Steve Hemsley acknowledged the pricing discipline as theimmediate area of focus for the company particularly the forecasting of care and financialactivity which include MA bids and commercial pricing.We expect the top three tasks for the new CEO are1) resetting the underwriting culture ofthe company; 2) establishing the long term management team for UNH; and 3) determiningif this is the opportunity to make a major strategic decisions for the company. In this note weoutline our expectations on each of these tasks. On #1, we expect 2026 will be a reset yearfor pricing discipline, setting internal expectations of no growth at the expense of margin. Wewould expect intense central oversight of management processes and 2026 planning. Weexpect a key strategic decision will be determining if UHC and Optum should be split.In the shareholder meeting, Hemsley provided comments which are in-line with this viewon next steps. The new CEO Steve Hemsley acknowledged the pricing discipline as theimmediate area of focus for the company particularly the forecasting of care and financialactivity which include MA bids and commercial pricing. He also mentioned that they havestarted to realign management team and management process to ensure UHC and Optumhave right leadership going forward. Hemsley also stated that there is no better mechanismto address the challenges in American healthcare than transition to VBC and stressed thatOptum Health is in formative stages in this process. On the topic of transparency, Hemsleymentioned that he is introducing new initiatives which include comprehensive review ofall the company policies, practices, and performance measure of risk assessment coding,managed care practices, and pharmacy services.Investment ImplicationsWe maintain our Outperform rating for UNH with price target of $377See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 03 Jun 2025 13:08 UTC Completion Date: 03 Jun 2025 13:08 UTC 304.72377.00(38.7)(51.2) F24AF25EF26E27.6622.7528.80FinancialsF24AF25EF26ECAGRRevenues (M)400,278444,660467,714--EBITDA (M)36,38633,62539,639--Reported EPS15.5021.3527.37--Close DateSPXFYEDiv YieldEV (USD) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)SPX (%)Relative (%)$700$600$500$400$30006/24 DETAILSOUR VIEW ON NEXT STEPS FOR THE NEW CEOWe see the appointment of Steve Hemsley as an effective change for UNH, as the company needs a combination of operationalfixes and a strategic assessment. We see three key tasks for the new CEO Steve Hemsley to accomplish:Reset the underwriting and operational culture of the company, restoring pricing discipline is critical -we expect thatsome of the issues with the company are related to a relaxing of the pricing discipline and underwriting culture, not just in UHCbut also in areas like Optum Health. We expect 2026 will be a reset year for pricing discipline, setting internal expectations of nogrowth at the expense of margin; only retaining profitable business. We would expect intense central oversight of managementprocesses 2026 planning. Frequently in companies which stumble on pricing discipline, operational reviews become lessfrequent and less directed by the CEO.We would expect something like an initial diligence phase, coupled with setting of 2026 operating plans, and then monthlyoperating reviews for all subsegments of UHC and Optum with corporate involvement – likely CEO and CFO in each of thesemeetings. This would be intended to reset to the organization. The likely consequence will be a slowing / reversal of growth for2026, especially in areas like MA and Optum Health. We could see decisive moves taken to communicate the shift to a marginand discipline focus.Establish the long term management team for UNH to succeed Steve Hemsley in 3 year -We would expect an objectivewill be to identify the successor CEO, coupled with the other long term business and corporate leaders. We would expect themanagement process will become that of an operating turnaround for the near term, with frequent contact between not justsegment leaders (eg Optum CEO and CFO or Optum Health CEO and CFO), but the next layer down (e.g. regional leaders orOptum Care, Optum Financial, etc). This type of environment will surface the top leaders and enable leadership renewal. Wewould see internal talent as critical for the turnaround, as external leaders would need to learn the UNH culture and companyspecifics, positioning internal talent be