赞比亚-贫困与公平评估：执行摘要

thScan for full report Where we are12Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized 2.Poverty is becoming more entrenched over time.Extreme poverty—measured by the share ofhouseholds whose consumption is lower than the food poverty line—accounted for 77 percent of thepoor in 2022, up from 71 percent in 2010.3At the same time, the incidence of overlapping deprivationsis rising. In 2022, as many as 7 in 10 children suffer from at least two overlapping deprivations(multidimensionally poor), and 3 in 10 experienced at least four overlapping deprivations (extrememultidimensionally poor).4These rates are 4 and 3.5 percentage points higher than in 2015,respectively. Chronic malnutrition remains at unacceptably high levels, and indicative evidencesuggests that it has increased in the recent past.5The under-five stunting rate—at 35 percent—is significantly above the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Lower Middle-Income (LMI) averages.63.Vulnerability to poverty is prevalent and largely driven by structural factors.7In 2015, 3 in5 individuals were expected to be poor in the following two years. Just over 80 percent of thevulnerability is structural—i.e., households expected to be poor because their low endowmentsplace them in a low-consumption trajectory. The remaining 20 percent is risk-driven—i.e.,households likely to be poor because they are expected to face a negative shock they cannot copewith. High structural vulnerability is consistent with the country’s substantial underinvestment inservices and infrastructure. Based on the World Bank’s Multidimensional Poverty Measure, in 2022Zambia held the 11thhighest deprivation rate in access to electricity, 14thin access to drinking water,and 24thin access to sanitation. Its performance is also poor in human capital dimensions (16thhighest in education enrolment deprivation and 24thin education attainment deprivation).How we got here4.The poverty-reducing impact of economic growth is among the lowest in a region that already lagssignificantly behind the rest of the world.Previous episodes of positive economic growth resultedin disappointing poverty reduction and increasing inequality. Economic growth in the SSA region isless poverty-reducing than in the rest of the world. On average, a 1 percent increase in GDP per capitais associated with a 2.5 percent decline in poverty among countries outside SSA, in contrast to a1 percent decline among countries in SSA.8In Zambia, the growth poverty elasticity was half theregional average during the latest period of positive economic growth from 2010–2015, and a10thof the regional average during the high-growth period from 2006–2010. This is the result ofweak urban-to-rural links, but also of limited urban poverty reduction. The pace of urban povertyreduction did not keep up with population growth, leading to an ever-growing number of urbanpoor. Meanwhile, the nearly 20-year period of positive economic growth has been systematicallyaccompanied by increasing within-urban inequality.5.The incidence of rural poverty has failed to decline in over 15 years amidst systemicunderinvestment, ineffective policies, and recurrent exposure to weather shocks.Poverty isoverwhelmingly rural—over 80 percent of the poor reside in rural areas. Yet the incidence of ruralpoverty has remained above 75 percent for over 15 years and has been on a slight upward trendsince 2010. Most rural households are trapped in subsistence agriculture, largely due to protractedunderinvestment, high vulnerability to climate shocks, and poor agricultural policies. Maize-centricpolicies and severe market distortions have hampered the development of the agricultural sector.The rural–urban divide in access to services remains staggering. Despite recent progress in waterand sanitation, the rural–urban gap remains at 24.4 and 46 percentage points in 2022, respectively.3Unless otherwise specified, poverty statistics throughout the document are based on the national poverty lines.4UNICEF and ZamStats 2023. Child Poverty Report. The analysis measures seven dimensions: health, sanitation, education,nutrition, information, water, and housing.5Zambia MCDP II Midline Survey Result. Mimeo.6WB 2023. Human Capital Index brief.7WB 2024. Towards a More Adaptive Social Protection System in Zambia. Diagnostics Study.8Wu et al. 2024. The Growth Elasticity of Poverty. Is Africa Any Different? PRWP 10690. Zambia PovertyandEquityAssessment-EXECUTIVESUMMARYAccess to electricity remains dismal—5.7 percent of rural households in contrast to 74 percentof urban households report using electricity as the main source of energy for lighting. Ruralaccess rates improve if solar and biofuel are added up, but the combined rural-urban gap remainssubstantial: 34 percent in rural areas compared to 80 percent in urban areas. The percentage ofhouseholds living within 2 kilometers of food markets (inputs markets) falls from 85 percent (70percent) among urban households to 47 pe