原油聚酯2025年6月策略报告：现实预期背离，下游低利润负反馈发酵

HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN2025年6月3日分析师：王亦路：从业资格证号：F03089928投资咨询证号：Z0019740电话：021-68757092邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn分析师冯冰从业资格证号：F3077183投资咨询证号：Z0016121电话：021-68757092邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn[Table_Report] 2/20正文目录1.策略概述.........................................................................................52.原油：增产预期和现实背离，库存有累积迹象.............................52.1.补偿减产未达标，供应持续增量.................................................................52.2.需求水平待验证，库存有累积风险.............................................................83.聚酯：下游减产存续，去库幅度大幅减少...................................123.1.PTA：装置回归叠加下游减产，紧缺情况有望缓解....................................123.2.乙二醇：下游需求回落，供应减量短期存续.............................................18 HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 3/20图表目录图1Brent12月差.........................................................................................................................5图2Brent3月差...........................................................................................................................5图3DFL..........................................................................................................................................6图4Dubai-Oman价差.....................................................................................................................6图58国对配额生产超量................................................................................................................6图6部分油品贴水情况..................................................................................................................6（千桶/天）...................................................................................7（千桶/天）.....................................................................................7图9伊朗船运出口情况（千桶/天）...........................................................................................7图10制裁国家包括浮仓库存情况（百万桶）..............................................................................7图11委内瑞拉出口情况.................................................................................................................8图12委内瑞拉产量........................................................................................................................8图13美国炼厂检修........................................................................................................................8图14欧洲炼厂检修........................................................................................................................8图15美国汽油裂解差....................................................................................................................9图16欧洲汽油裂解差....................................................................................................................9图17美湾炼厂利润........................................................................................................................9图18欧洲炼厂利润........................................................................................................................9图19主要消费地原油库存...........................................................................................................10图20主要消费地汽油库存...........................................................................................................10图21国营炼厂开工率..................................................................................................................10图22地炼开工率.........................................................................................................................10图23国内汽油样本库存...............................................................................................................11图24国内柴油样本库存...............................................................................................................11图25中国原油进口量..................................................................................................................11图26对中国出口油轮量...............................................................................................................11图27PTA基差情况.......................................................................................................................12图28PX-石脑油价差....................................................................................................................12图29样本企业坯布库存水平.......................................................................................................13图30织机开工.............................................................................................................................13图31加弹开工.............................................................................................................................13图32长丝产销率.........................................................................................................................14图33短纤产销率.........................................................................................................................14图34长丝开工率.......................................................................................................................