PVH公司（PVH）：洞察：升级反馈及对第一季度的最新看法

Equity ResearchJune 4, 2025Ashley Helgans * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7367 | ahelgans@jefferies.comBlake Anderson, CFA * | Equity Associate(212) 323-7686 | banderson2@jefferies.comBryan Pinedo, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (917) 421-1958 (office) | bpinedo@jefferies.com$82.54^$105.00 | +27%$124.68 - $59.28FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD)99.5% | 98.38^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwiseJEF vs CONS20252026NANA+5%+7%Q3Q4FY3.774.1712.60Exhibit 1 - PVH Monthly US EMV Y/Y; CKEMV measures 3P social media engagementExhibit 2 - CK & TH Europe Web Traffic YTD;May Slightly Lower for CK, Better for THNov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25TH EuropeEurope includes sum of Germany, UK, France, Spain, and Italy 2023A2024A2025E9,217.78,652.98,751.010.6811.7312.60--8,635.1--11.99 2026E9,100.914.228,804.013.30 The Long View: PVHInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferPVH has made meaningful progress in transitioning to a more focused,efficient, and strategic company. With a compelling roadmap and high-calibermanagement in place, it should see improved LT results. After lapping 2024as an investment year, revenue initiatives, improved GM%, supply chainefficiencies, and cost savings, supported by buybacks, should lead to ameaningful improvement in topline and bottom line growth. Our Buy ratingis also driven by compelling risk/reward opportunity as we believe Chinaregulation risk is meaningfully priced in at the current valuation.Base Case,$105, +27%•2025 rev +70bps CC as consumer spendingremains challenged but PVH initiatives take holdand co. laps headwinds from '24•GM% declines ~110bps due to product delays,freight, and promotional pressures, and to alesser extent tariffs•SG&A leverage of~100bps driven by costsavings•2025 OM% of ~9.9%, -10bps Y/Y and well beloworiginal 2025 guide of 15%•$105 PT = 7.5x FY26E P/E on $14.22Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues:1) Employee Engagement, Diversity & Inclusion:are natural extensions of broaderlabor practices & are a top ESG issue for apparel and footwear companies. Cos should prioritizecompetitive & equal pay, advancement opportunities, & an environment where thought diversity candrive innovation.2) Materials Sourcing & Efficiency:these are considerations that are essential inthe transition to using environmentally preferred materials. Sustainable packaging practices, such asreducing packaging size, can help reduce costs.Company Targets:1)By 2030, power office, DCs, and stores with 100% renewable electricity and drive30% reduction in Scope 3 GHG. 2) Sustainably source 100% of cotton, viscose, and wool by 2025 and100% polyester by 20230. 3) 100% of suppliers will meet or exceed environmental standards by 2030. 4)all products will contribute to the circular economy throughout the product lifecycle by 2030.Qs to Mgmt:1)How do your energy management goals affect your supply chain operations and LT margintargets?2)How are customers responding to your Tommy Hilfiger resale offering?ESG Report HEREPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$153, +85%•Org CC rev growth reaches 2%in 2025,improved but still well below high end of +M-HSD% guide•GM% expansion of 100bps/year driven by fewerpromos and faster DTC shift from wholesale•SG&A leverage of 60bps/year on fixed costscale and cost controls•2025 OM% of ~10.4%•China investigation is resolved; addt'l buybackcould provide further upside to EPS•$153 PT = 10x FY26E P/E on $15.26 Downside Scenario,$56, -32%•Rev growth declines 3% org CC in 2025 as brandelevation strategies fall to ignite AUR and newcustomer acquisition, while macro pressuresweigh•GM% declines 30bps/year on increased promosand slower DTC and int'l growth•SG&A as % of sales is roughly flat aided by costcuts•China business is impacted by restrictions withlimited cost offset, while tariffs are ~20bpsheadwind•$56 PT = 7x FY26E P/E on $8.02Catalysts•Removal of China regulatory risk overhang•Sustainable return to sales growth•Improved product portfolio leads to AURincreases & brand elevation•Further shift to DTC from wholesale•Cost savings•Share repurchases and dividend increase 2 China growth in Q4 was 3% vs. >20% in FY23, although March run-rate was lower. FY guide includesAPAC -MSD%, incl. China -LDD% and rest of region +LSD%, which we view as including some cushion.Historically, Tommy Hilfiger has operated through a license partnership and a JV in the region, whichcould be used to some extent to sustain a business in China. Our online web traffic data for trendsin China through Tmall and Taobao showed a drop through March, consistent with guide. We willcontinue to monitor data and checks in the region throughout the year. While China last month didrelease some cos from the Unreliable Entity List, PVH remains.Brand Heat Initiatives:For Tommy Hilfiger, the upcoming F1 movie w/ Brad Pitt should serve asa boost for global awareness and h