谨慎的举措

Restricted - External Alejandro Arreaza+1 212 412 3021alejandro.arreaza@barclays.comBCI, US 1Ecuador Vows a Return to Debt Markets, Sending Bonds Soaring, Bloomberg, June 3, 2025FIGURE 1. Impact of the measures is still small (USD mn)FIGURE 2. Further actions would be required to achieve the fiscalconsolidation targets42200249491Source: IMF42mn expected from the reduction of the subsidiary to the tuna fishers represents less than 3%of the existing subsidy (c. 1.5bn).Minister of Finance Sariha Moya has suggested the possibility of presenting a new taxreform, but even if passed before the end of this year, the impact would not be felt until2026.In principle, the purpose of this measure would be to compensate for transitory revenuesthat were part of the measures passed last year and are winding-down through this and nextyear. Therefore, unless the scope of the reform is changed, the net gains could be small.Nonetheless, risks on this side for now seem to be partlyoffsetby strong performance of taxcollection as a result of the measures, which is still showing an increase of c. 15% y/y YTD.For now, the trend is towards a widening of the fiscal deficit this year.Preliminary data forQ1 show the 12 months accumulated public sector deficit running around USD2.8bn and centralgovernment at USD4.4bn (Figure 3). These figures do not yet show the impact of the decline inoil prices in Q2, which is likely to increase the pressures. The Minister of Finance signaled aUSD3bn deficit target for this year, but it is unclear to which aggregation of the government thisrefers. If this refers to the central government it seems too optimistic, at least with the measuresannounced so far. On the other hand, if that figure refers to the public sector, it would meannearly doubling the deficit relative to last year. We would probably need to wait for the revisedIMF program to have more clarity on the new targets.The announced measures might help in securing the required funding for this year, but theneed to re-calibrate the IMF program could still delay the expected disbursements.Authorities remain in the middle of the negotiation of the second review of the IMF program,which was due by mid-March. Considering that they over-complied with the targets of the endof 2024, which were supposed to be the focus of that review, the main issue still underdiscussion seems to be a modification of the program considering lower oil prices and less likelyaccess to international capital markets in the near future. Considering the delay and based onprevious experiences, it is possible that the ongoing review could be combined with the thirdreview that was due by August, or they could even move into a new program that postponessome of the objectives that were initially outlined. This would likely demand an increasedexposure from the IMF as well as the other multilaterals.Authorities have outlined the possibility of accessing capital markets through guaranteedbonds1. This is in line with our expectations and it seems possible that they could issue a socialbond with a structure similar to the one they placed in 2020 using a guarantee from the IADBthat would facilitate reducing the funding cost; however, that would likely be limited (c.USD0.5bn).2 2CAF Approves $416M Short-Term Credit for Ecuador, Bloomberg, May 28, 2025FIGURE 3. Moving towards a wider fiscal deficit (USD bn)FIGURE 4. Decline in oil prices partly mitigated by other exports (USDbn)4.05.06.07.08.09.00100200300400500600700800900Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25Trade balance (3mmaUSDmn)International Reserves(USD bn, RHS)Source: Haver, Barclays ResearchWe expect multilaterals to remain supportive.CAF recently approved a loan for USD416mn2,which seems to serve as a bridge until the IMF program negotiations are completed, while theauthorities could also tap domestic sources of financing to cover their short-term needs.Despite the decline in oil prices, the trade balance has been improving, which should besupportive of domestic liquidity. So far, the strong performance of minerals, shrimp andagricultural exports is mitigating the impact of lower oil prices over the external position, andinternational reserves have increased to USD8.3bn as of the end of May (Figure 4).Our base scenario remains for authorities to be able to muddle through in the short term withsupport from multilateral and domestic financing; however, if further actions to address thestructural imbalances are not taken soon, the government risks missing the opportunity of thehoneymoon period of the beginning of the presidential term. Correismo, the main oppositionparty, has beenleftdividedafterthe recent elections, and the indigenous movement has beenalso weakened. Therefore, it seems critical for the authorities to take advantage of theseconditions and avoid the fact that the regular erosion of its political capital makes theimplementation of reforms later on more complicate