仓库自动化：它正在回归

Restricted - External European Capital GoodsNEUTRALUnchangedEuropean Capital GoodsTimothy Lee, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 6879timothy.lee@barclays.comBarclays, UKVlad Sergievskii+44 (0)20 7116 1117vlad.sergievskii@barclays.comBarclays, UKGeorge Featherstone, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 8585george.featherstone@barclays.comBarclays, UKXin Wang+44 (0)20 7773 1380xin.wang@barclays.comBarclays, UK line with KGX's earlier comments on e-commerce players coming back for capacityplanning. This also coincides with an earlier BBG article about Amazon's potential US$15bninvestment in warehouses, and the latest move is that one robotics fulfilment center hasbegun construction in Virginia in mid-May. Within Daifuku's FY25 intralogistics order target,NA is the key region with the highest targeted YoY growth (at c.34%). In addition, ToyotaIndustries also sees demand expanding and is receiving steady orders, including from e-commerce player and major logistics companies.Tariffsbring uncertainty, but we raise forecasts on potentially more resilient demand.Wedon't rule out thattariffsmacro uncertainty could make project owners return to wait-and-seemode again, so our FY25 order/sales forecasts for our covered companies remain belowconsensus. However, industry players such as Daifuku have yet to see any signs of a slowdown,hence we raise our warehouse automation market growth forecasts for 2025/26. Consequently,we raise our 2025-27E order intake forecasts and our 2026-27 sales forecasts for our coveredcompanies, on what we see as potentially more resilient market demand this year and beyond.Forkliftdemand in Europe may have stabilised ...We also expectforkliftdemand to beimpacted bytariff-relateduncertainty, with Toyota Industries also highlighting order weaknessin March-April, for reasons such as price increases in NA. Meanwhile, for Europe, the EurozonePMI has logged five consecutive months's sequential improvement, despite remaining belowthe 50 mark, suggesting that industrial activity may have stabilised. This suggests thatforkliftdemand in Europe is potentially proving more resilient than in other markets such as NA. Notethat both KGX/JUNG derive c.80% of their truck segment revenue from Europe.... but increasing China imports are a risk.We also note that imports offorkliftsfrom Chinaincreased materially in the first three months of 2025, in both the US (>100% in both Februaryand March, likely reflecting a push to avoid potentialtariffs,as well as the market reboundingfrom the trough) and Europe (reaching a record high in March on acceleratinggrowth, potentially due in part to redirection of Chinese products). We will need further monthlydata to judge the movement of Chineseforkliftswhentariffsare ineffectto see whethercompetition is really stepping up in the European market, but we now see slightly morecompetitive risk in theforkliftsegment than in the warehouse automation segment over theshort term.Stock calls and forecast changes:JUNG (OW):We raise our 2025-27E order intake by 1-3%, sales by c.0-3% and adj. EBIT byc.0-3%, and weliftour PT from €42 to €43, based on an unchanged 13.5x 2026E EV/adj.EBITA. Warehouse automation is at c.€1bn revenue or JUNG, or close to 20% of total revenue,and is key to its growth plans to 2030. We think JUNG's current valuation (2026E EV/adj. EBITof 12x and 2026E adj. PE of 11x) does not fully reflect the potential.KGX (OW):We raise our 2025-27E order intake by 1-3%, sales by c.0-3% and adj. EBIT byc.0-3%, and weliftour PT from €46 to €48, based on an unchanged 13.5x/17x 2026E EV/adj.EBITA for ITS/SCS, respectively. As the largest warehouse automation provider globally, withleading e-commerce players as its key customers, we think KGX is likely the major beneficiaryif these players are really turning more active in the market again.AUTO (EW):We raise our 2025-27E order intake by 0-2% and sales by c.0-1%, and leave ouradj. EBIT forecasts largely unchanged. We maintain our PT at NOK5, based on an unchanged14x 2026E EV/adj. EBITA. We still need time to see how the new AutoStore-as-a-service modelwillaffectnear-term P&L performance notwithstanding the longer-term visibilityoffered,although we would expect AUTO, as a pure-play in warehouse automation and leader incubic storage, also to benefit from an industry demand recovery in the longer term. •••2 FIGURE 1. Global warehouse automation market: We raise our marketgrowth forecasts for 2025/26 (from 3%/13% to 5%/15%)FIGURE 2. AS/RS market 24-27E CAGR by technology: AMR and Cubicstorage are still likely outperformersSource: Interact Analysis, Modern Materials Handling, Barclays Research estimatesSource: Barclays Research estimatesWarehouse automationFIGURE 3. Quarterly order level of selected warehouse solutions players050100150200Kion (Supply ChainSolutions)(Jun 21 quarter= 100)Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23Note: Toyota Industries and Daifuku are not covered by Barclays Research.Source: Company data, Barclays Research 13%10%18%9%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18