设备租赁：Wolftrac数据显示利用率和费率前景更好

www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingAHT.LNOURIMEDMSPXO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe maintain ourOutperformrating onAshtead(AHT, TP £6,250p).AHT’starget price is based on an unchanged 2.7x CY26eEV/IC (range 1.5-4.0x) which drives a 6,250p price target.We maintain ourMarket-Performrating onUnited Rentals(URI, TP $666).URI’starget price is based on an EV/EBITDAmultiple of 7.7x which is derived from our ROIC framework, and discounted back.EUROPEAN BUSINESS SERVICES DETAILSUTILISATION RATES IN APRIL-MAY 2025 HAVE RISEN +6% YOY BUT DESCRIBED ‘TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON’ BYRESPONDENTSCurrent rental managers for April and May reported that, among those with an opinion, 63% felt that utilization was “typicalfor the season,” while 37% believed it was “lower than normal for the season”. The underlying utilization data showed a YoYincrease of 6.0% in April and May, following a decline of 4.5% YoY in February and March. On a monthly basis, utilization inApril increased by 12% YoY, while May remained flat at 0.0% YoY. This aligns with last month’s and repeated again this monthscommentary regarding a “Wait and See Mode”, as residential and commercial contracts continue to exercise caution until thereis greater market clarity. Further details on underlying market conditions will be provided by Ashtead on June 17, 2025, duringits 4Q25 results and FY26 outlook commentary.EXHIBIT 1:Utilisation rates recuperated in April-May2025, with an increase of +6% YoYWolfTrac Bi-monthly change in utilisation (%)-10.0%-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%Source: WolfTrac, Bernstein analysisEUROPEAN BUSINESS SERVICES Apr/May-25Feb/Mar-25Dec/Jan-25Oct/Nov-24Aug/Sep-24Jun/Jul-24Apr/May-24Feb/Mar-24Dec/Jan/24Oct/Nov-23Aug/Sep-23Jun/Jul-23Apr/May-23Feb/Mar-23Dec/Jan-23Oct/Nov-22EXHIBIT 2:Utilisation rates in April and May were+12% YoY and flat (0.0%) YoY respectively, which wasreported by respondents as typical for the seasonWolfTrac monthly change in utilisation (%)-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%Source: WolfTrac, Bernstein analysis Apr/May-25EXHIBIT 4:Monthly utilisation rates remained stable inApril before increasing in May as the summer seasonapproaches; utilization rates were 58% and 64%respectively.Wolftrac monthly Utilisation (%)40.0%45.0%50.0%55.0%60.0%65.0%70.0%75.0%80.0%Source: WolfTrac, Bernstein analysisRENTAL RATES DECLINED BY -0.1% YOY DURING APRIL AND MAY. AMONG RESPONDENTS, 55% EXPECT RATESTO REMAIN FLAT IN 2025, WHILE 27% ANTICIPATE A DECLINE.Rental rates remained negative in April and May 2025, recording -0.1% YoY, similar to the -0.6% YoY observed in Februaryand March 2025. On a monthly basis, April experienced a decline of -0.7% YoY, attributed to increased competition andundercutting. In May 2025, rental rates rebounded by +0.6% YoY; however, respondents anticipate continued price pressure forSpring and Summer 2025. In previous months, rates were -2.5% YoY in February 2025 and +1.3% YoY in March 2025.The specialty sector reported "lower" rates, which respondents indicated were temporary, while half of the respondents noted EXHIBIT 3:Utilisation in April-May 2025 was on avg. at61% compared to April-May 2024 at 55%. This alsorepresents a sequential improvement compared to Feb-March 2025 at 54% albeit significantly impacted byadverse weather in the U.S.WolfTrac Bi-monthly Utilisation (%)0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%Feb/Mar-25Dec/Jan-25Oct/Nov-24Aug/Sep-24Jun/Jul-24Apr/May-24Feb/Mar-24Dec/Jan/24Oct/Nov-23Aug/Sep-23Jun/Jul-23Apr/May-23Feb/Mar-23Dec/Jan-23Oct/Nov-22Source: WolfTrac, Bernstein analysisflat rates for general tools.EUROPEAN BUSINESS SERVICES 4 EXHIBIT 6:Rental rates were negative in the month ofApril 2025 at -0.7% YoY while May saw a sequentialrecovery to +0.6%WolfTrac YoY change in rental rates (monthly)-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%Source: WolfTrac, Bernstein analysisApproximately 55% of respondents expect rates to remain flat in 2025, while 27% anticipate a decline. This represents animprovement compared to February and March 2025, when half of the respondents expected rates to decrease this year.Respondents attribute the pressure on rental prices to increased competition and undercutting.EXHIBIT 8:Approx. 27% of respondents expect rentalrates to be down in 2025, an improvement compared tothe 50% in February-March 20250%10%20%30%40%50%60%DownSource: WolfTrac, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 5:Rental rates remained in negative territory forthe months of April and May 2025 at -0.1% YoYWolfTrac Bi-monthly change in rental rates (%)-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%Source: WolfTrac, Bernstein analysisEXHIBIT 7:Approx. 55% of respondents expect for rentalrates to remain flat/unchanged in 202560%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%UpFlatSource: Wolftrac, Bernstein analysisEUROPEAN BUSINESS SERVICES DEMAND (ORDERBOOKS) WAS