新兴市场金融行业：五月：哪些有效，哪些无效，以及未来展望

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.View HSBCGlobal Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsCarlos Gomez-Lopez, CFAHead of EM and LatAm FinancialsHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.carlos.gomezlopez@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 5253Neha Agarwala, CFAAnalyst, LatAm Financials & FintechHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.neha.agarwala@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 5418Abhishek Murarka*Senior Analyst, FinancialsHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitedabhishek.murarka@hsbc.co.in+91 96 1996 4653Aybek Islamov*, CFAAnalyst, EEMEA BanksHSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, UAE branchaybek.islamov@hsbc.com+971 4 423 6921Cihan Saraoglu*, PhDEEMEA Banks AnalystHSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S.cihansaraoglu@hsbc.com.tr+90 212 376 46 20Weldon Sng*, CFAAnalyst, ASEAN Financials & Digital FinanceThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchweldon.sng@hsbc.com.sg+65 6658 2640* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesFinancialsEmerging Markets ◆◆◆◆◆◆◆◆◆◆◆ Performance by marketEM performance versus FTSE EM Banksas of30May_______________Perf vs FTSE EM Banks_____________________________Perf vs FTSE EMBanks______________Market/region1 monthGreece14.1%Korea12.7%IndonesiaTaiwanUAEMainlandChinaSouth AfricaSingaporeMexicoTürkiye-0.2%Andean-0.5%Qatar-0.7%Egypt-0.9%CEE-1.0%Philippines-1.1%Thailand-1.2%Brazil-1.6%HongKong-1.7%India-2.9%Kuwait-3.2%Chile-3.4%Argentina-7.2%Saudi Arabia-11.1%Source:LSEG Datastream. Market represents the weighted average (based on the market cap) of themost relevant stocks in each region.Stock price performance(USD)Top 10 banks’ price performance as of30May(USD)____________Top 10 USD price performance______________________Top 10 USD price performance___________Banks1 monthAlpha Bank33.2%KBFG19.9%Piraeus19.8%Bank Rakyat Indonesia17.8%Hana FG16.9%Bradesco16.5%JB FG14.7%China Merchants Bank13.9%Investec plc13.7%National Bank of Greece13.2%Source:LSEG DatastreamBottom 10 banks’ price performance as of30May(USD)___________Bottom 10 USD price performance___________________Bottom 10 USDprice performance__________Banks1 monthBanco do Brasil-20.0%Alrajhi Banking and Inves-8.7%Riyad Bank-7.3%Kotak Mahindra Bank-7.1%Halkbank-5.0%ABC Brasil-4.6%Banco Macro-4.5%IndusInd Bank-3.6%Nu Holdings-3.4%BBVA Argentina-2.7%Source:LSEG Datastream What worked:Greece BanksBalance sheet growth looked strong in Q125: Credit expansion exhibited positive trends atthesystem level in Q1, expanding 7% y-o-y, supported by corporates. Securities book growthalso picked up in Q1 expanding by low-mid single digits, given the positive bond spreads overEuribor. This is positive from a NII point of view, as long tenure fixed rate bonds act as a naturalhedge to the falling lending spreads.NII contracted,impacted by rate cuts; fee momentum strong amid regulatory headwinds:NII contracted sequentially for all Greek banks in Q1 owing to lower Euribor rates furtherexacerbated by the calendar effect. AlphaBank saw the least NII decline thanks to its less rate-sensitive balance sheet structure vs peers. Piraeus NII contracted the most, owing to its coredeposit heavy balance sheet offering little room for downward repricing. Despite the negativeeffect of regulatory measures on payments and fundtransfers, Greek banks achievedsignificant fee growth. Alpha Bank had the best y-o-y fee growth driven by robust increase inwealth management and bancassurance fees. Piraeus benefited from strong lending-relatedfees amid strong loan growth.Asset quality benign; a slight uptick in retail NPL inflows in 1Q:Net NPEformationremained zero for Greek banks in 1Q25. As such, NPE ratios remained unchangedq-o-q in Q1.CoRimproved for all banks from last quarter’s high baseand came in line with FY25 budgets,barring Piraeus (15bp better than budget). However, we noticed an uptick in the NPE inflow inthe retail segment in Q1 but it was offset by the improvement in the corporate segment, keepingthe overall NPL intact.Inorganic growthto offset margin pressure.Alpha’sacquisition ofAstrobank and Axia,Eurobank’s CNP Insurance and Piraeus’ Ethniki Insurancealongside the faster credit andsecurities expansion, strong fee momentum amid lower CoR amid benign operatingenvironment shouldhelp mitigate the top-line pressure from lower ratesas suggested bymarketimpliedpolicy rate curve. For Alpha in particular, inorganic growth coupled with good PPI trendsmeansac80bpROTE upliftin FY26e.Reiterate Buy on Alpha, Eurobank, Piraeus;maintain Hold on NBG:Greek bankshavererated significantly YTD with c40%shareprice appreciation. Yet, their 26e P/TBV of 0.9x is stilldiscounted vs CEEMEA peers with comparable capital return and growth profiles.Alpharemains our preferred name with solid earnings momentum (8% FY24-27e recurring earningsCAGR vs-2% for peers) and discounted valuation. Reiterate Buy onEurobank; shareshavelagged local peers c30% YTD