第22周铁路指标：运量趋势继续表明第二季度有上行空间，CSX服务指标正在改善

www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingCSXMNSCOUNPOCNIMCNR.CNMCPMCP.CNMSPXO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSVolume trends point to upside for 2Q reporting, and service improvements at CSX are encouraging for the group.AIRFREIGHT & SURFACE TRANSPORTATION VALUATION COMPS TABLEEXHIBIT 1:Rail Comp SheetAs of 06/04/2025Company NameCsx CorpNorfolk Southern CorpUnion Pacific CorpCanadian National Railway CoCanadian Pacific Kansas CityAverageMedianCompany NameCSX CorpNorfolk Southern CorpUnion Pacific CorpCanadian National Railway CoCanadian Pacific Kansas CityAverageMedianSource: Visible Alpha, Bernstein AnalysisAIRFREIGHT & SURFACE TRANSPORTATION DETAILSNote: All BNSF metrics use a repeat of the prior week’s data for the current week because the company is slow to post updateddata relative to peers. BNSF is the only railroad mentioned that is not covered by Bernstein.RAIL CARLOAD DATA AND ANALYSISYTD, TRAILING 13-WEEK, TRAILING 4-WEEK CARLOAD DATA•Total carloads in North America indicates a slowdown in growth, as evidenced by the 2.5% variance in the last 4 weeks(L4Ws) compared to the 3.8% variance over the last 13 weeks (L13Ws). As the impact of the 90-day tariff pause takes effect,we can expect some lingering effects of the tariff war. Notably, CPKC stands out as the only company bucking this trend,achieving an impressive 10.1% growth in the L4Ws versus a 3.8% growth in the L13Ws. CPKC performance is primarilydriven by being the only rail that has double-digit year-over-year (YoY) growth in the L4Ws for intermodal (+18.1%, on stablesequential volumes over easing comps), and also because of its +11.8% YoY growth in coal over the last 4 weeks.•Although the YoY variance in total coal volume over the L4Ws continues to decline compared to the previous two weeks, itremains robust. Week 22 shows 12.3% growth, modestly below the L13W average of 13.6%. UNP continues to have animpressive YoY variance of over 30% in the L4Ws for coal.•North America's merchandise growth volumes beginning to show some improvement from the L13Ws to the L4Ws. UNP'sYoY variance improved from 0.3% in the L13Ws to 2.2% in the L4Ws, CPKC from 1% in the L13Ws to 4% in the L13Wsand BNSF from 1% in the L13Ws to 2% in the L13Ws. Meanwhile, CSX showed a drop in momentum, with its YoY variancedecreasing from -1.1% in the L13Ws to -2.2% in the L4Ws.•As we finished the first month of Q2, the upward trend in our implied full-quarter calculations, based on quarter-to-date(QTD) year-over-year (YoY) growth for all railroads, continues when compared to street estimates for carloads. This isparticularly notable for UNP, where our estimates show a 5.2% YoY growth compared to the current consensus estimate of2.8%. Similarly, NSC and CP are also showing a notable upward trend, with implied full-quarter YoY growth rates of 4.6%and 6.4%, respectively, against consensus estimates of 2.3% and 4.1%. The pace at which the optimistic internationalintermodal trends materialize could determine how much of their impact flows into Q2. As it stands, our implied full-quarterrevenue calculations also show an upward trend compared to current consensus estimates, suggesting potential upside forQ2 performance. See Exhibit 3, Exhibit 4 for more detail.AIRFREIGHT & SURFACE TRANSPORTATION 4 EXHIBIT 2:Total North American volume has experienced some deceleration over L4Ws compared to the L13Ws.Coal growth is beginning to stabilize, while intermodal volumes continue to reflect some effects from the tariffwar. In contrast, merchandise is starting to show an uptick in YoY growth.Week 22Period:YTDLast 13WeeksLast 4WeeksYTDLast 13WeeksLast 4WeeksYTDLast 13WeeksLast 4WeeksYTDLast 13WeeksLast 4WeeksCNI5.2%5.5%-1.5%-0.5%0.3%0.8%-3.0%-2.2%-1.5%-1.3%-0.5%-0.5%CSX-2.9%1.6%3.4%3.1%3.8%0.7%-1.6%-1.1%-2.2%0.4%1.4%-0.2%NSC7.7%16.6%15.0%3.7%3.8%0.8%1.1%4.3%4.0%3.2%5.2%3.2%UNP15.5%29.8%31.1%14.1%8.9%0.0%0.0%0.3%2.2%6.7%5.8%3.6%BNSF7.1%15.1%11.3%7.1%4.4%-0.9%-0.3%1.0%2.0%4.7%4.5%1.4%CPKC12.2%11.9%11.8%8.9%10.8%18.1%0.0%1.0%4.0%4.6%5.8%10.1%North America7.1%13.6%12.3%6.1%5.0%1.6%-0.6%0.4%1.3%3.3%3.8%2.5%CoalTrend in YoY VariancesIntermodalMerchandiseTotalNorth America = sum of all traffic (not just originated); Carloads are based on Business Unit Mapping of AAR carloadsSource: AAR, Company Reports, Bernstein AnalysisAIRFREIGHT & SURFACE TRANSPORTATION IMPLIED FULL-QUARTER CARLOADS, RPU, REVENUE VS. ESTIMATES: BASED ON QTD YOY CARLOAD GROWTHRATESEXHIBIT 3:Implied full quarter results offer a depiction of how the quarter could play out if carloads were to trendat current QTD YoY growth rates (and factors in QTD carloads adjusted for excess / missing days in the quartercoming from start / end weeks of quarCarloads(based on QTD YoY Growth)RPURevenueCurrent Consensus Numbers4.1%1.4%5.6%Implied Full Quarter(based on QTD YoY Growth)6.4%0.4%6.9%Bernste