马自达：挥之不去的不确定性阴影

(37)% RatingUnderperformPrice Target7261.JPReported EPSF24A7261.JP (JPY)180.87OLD--187.84Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Mazda: Lingering shadows of uncertaintyWhat has changed and is unchanged.As we have lowered our forecasts by incorporatingcompany feedback post-FY3/25 results and the impact of US tariffs, we have lowered ourtarget price to ¥550. We reiterate our cautious stance on Mazda, as we believe the stockseems not to fully price-in US tariff impacts and structural headwinds. Moreover, since thecompany has not clearly outlined the US import tariff impacts or provided earnings guidancefor FY3/26, we believe there remains considerable uncertainty regarding its future outlook.Lowering our forecasts.We have lowered our operating profit forecast for FY3/26 to JPY14 bn (from JPY 164 bn) and for FY3/27 to JPY 77 bn (from JPY 171 bn), reflecting companyfeedback on FY3/25 results and US tariffs impacts - incorporated an impact of JPY 160billion (including mitigation efforts), which is lower than our previous estimate and reflects amore conservative perspective. We forecast global retail volume of 1.293 mn units (-0.8%YoY) for FY3/26, with a YoY decrease of 9.1% in North America coming from price increasesrelated to US import tariffs. Mazda aims to reduce variable/fixed costs by JPY 100 bn each by2030; however, we anticipate that these reductions will primarily take effect after FY3/27.We maintain our cautious outlook for the near to mid-term.FY3/26 marks thebeginning of the company's mid-term plan Phase 2 (FY3/26-FY3/28). During this phase,Mazda intends to replicate the success of its US business reforms in the Asia region.However, we believe the challenging market conditions and intensifying competition createuncertainty around the likelihood of achieving these goals. Mazda’s sales volume and top-line revenue grew rapidly with its expansion in North America, which has now become one ofthe most challenging markets due to US tariffs. While the company expects its Large productgroup and the CX-50 HEV to support sales, it will likely face significant sales impacts as mostautomakers, including Mazda, are expected to raise prices due to tariffs. In addition to tariffheadwinds and sluggish sales, we anticipate that forex fluctuations and rising environmentalregulation costs will squeeze margins. Furthermore, we do not have a favorable view of itsindependent xEV development efforts, as it could potentially reduce their reliance on Toyota.Investment ImplicationsWe lower our target price to ¥550.We apply target PBR 0.18x (previous 0.22x) to ourFY3/27 BPS JPY 2,914 (previous JPY 3,142). The implied PER based on the current price is9.7x our FY3/27 EPS forecast, suggesting that it remains relatively high.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 03 Jun 2025 20:30 UTC Completion Date: 03 Jun 2025 13:03 UTC F26E9.6Mar6.3%12M(45.4)(1.3)(44.1) 550.00 JPY(650.00OLD)F26E90.72196.87 F25E18.98 DETAILSLINGERING SHADOWS OF UNCERTAINTYAs we have lowered our forecasts by incorporating post-FY3/25 results from the company and the impacts of US tariffs, wehave lowered our target price to ¥550 (from ¥650). We reiterate our cautious stance on Mazda, as we believe the stock seemsnot to fully price-in US tariff impacts and future structural headwinds. Moreover, since the company has not clearly outlinedthe impacts of US import tariffs or provided earnings guidance for FY3/26, we believe there remains considerable uncertaintyregarding its future outlook.FY3/25 PROFITS WERE LOWER THAN EXPECTATIONSMazda’s FY3/25 sales amounted to JPY 5,019 bn, broadly in line with expectations, operating profit was JPY 186 bn,missing our forecast by 5%. Furthermore, net profit totaled JPY 114 bn, also short of our estimates by 9%. The decline inoperating profit was primarily attributed to volume & mix, as well as a decrease in forex impacts. The shortfall in net profit wasprimarily due to a provision for loss on production termination, amounting to JPY 24 bn. This was largely attributed to suppliercompensation related to the discontinuation of MX-30 production for the European market. The company noted that this willunlikely impact FY3/26 profits. FY3/25 dividend was JPY 55 per share, down JPY 5 per share YoY, but in line with our estimates.NO FY3/26 EARNINGS AND DIVIDEND GUIDANCEFor FY3/26, the company left its guidance undecided due to the uncertainty in its business environment, particularly due todevelopments in US government tariff policies. While the company was unable to provide any figures regarding the overallimpact of US tariffs other than the JPY 9-10 bn impact in April, it briefly outlined actions to minimize that impact. Firstly,Mazda has formed a cross-functional team dedicated to minimizing the impact on suppliers, dealers, and customers. Facingan uncertain mark