日本半导体、亚洲硬件及亚太食品饮料：ABF载板：驾驭周期

ABF substrate: Navigating the cycle In this report, we update the latest supply and demand situation for ABF substratemanufacturers (Ibiden, Unimicron) and upstream material industries including Ajinomoto’sABF Film, and we update our views and estimates on coverage companies. David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com We raise our ABF demand growth to 12% and 9% in 2025/26, respectively. Thisis up by 3%/1% from our previous forecast, mainly because of faster-than-expectedramp up of Rubin GPU substrate in 4Q CY25. This benefits Ibiden as it remains the solesupplier for Rubin at the initial phase of ramp up.Capacity expansion is also forecastedto be slower at 8% and 9% in 2025/26, down by 3%/7% from our previous forecast,as several suppliers cut capex and capacity expansion plans. Consensus of aggregatedcapex of ABF substrate companies is -10% and -16% yoy in 2025/26. However, theABFsubstrate industry is projected to remain in oversupply over the next three years,and we do not expect sector-wise utilization to increase much. Our ABF supply/demandmodel can be downloadedhere. Euan McLeish+81 3 5962 9611euan.mcleish@bernsteinsg.com Alex Wang, CFA+852 2123 2613alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com Xuan Ji+852 2123 2667xuan.ji@bernsteinsg.com Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Near term financials are improving for supply chain companies. In the Mar’25 quarter,aggregated revenue for ABF companies YoY accelerated to 13%, with GPM and OPMreaching a near term high of 17% and 6%. Ibiden’s profit beat as Nvidia GPU ramped upand negotiation with Intel was smooth. Unimicron’s 1Q25 revenue & GM beat driven by theramp-up at the KF site (ABF for Nvidia) and strong demand for HDI in Hopper AI servers.Ajinomoto is also delivering strong results with 18% revenue and 22% BP growth in the Jan-Mar Q, bringing their FY3/25 growth to 26% and 46% YoY, materially above guidance, andincreasing their operational leverage ratio to 1.8x. Hao Wang, CFA+852 2123 2627hao.wang@bernsteinsg.com Mufei Gao+81 3 6777 6995mufei.gao@bernsteinsg.com ForIbiden, we expect strong electronics revenue in H2 FY26/3, with the continueddelivery of Blackwell and start of Rubin’s ramp from end of Q3. We also slightly lifted thefigures for FY27/3 and onwards, as Rubin/Rubin Ultra will expand the average area size,followed by the ramp up of ASICS. We expect Ibiden share in AI server substrate to be 80%in FY26/3 and 70% in FY27/3. We raise the TP toJPY5880, using 18x 5-8Q EPS (vs 16xlast time). MaintainMarket-Performfor balanced risk-reward. Shirley Yang, CFA+852 2123 2660shirley.yang@bernsteinsg.com Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com ForUnimicron,despite near-term FX headwinds, we expect a strong recovery in grossmargin in 2H25 driven by the ramp up of GPU/ASIC ABF and AI HDI. We model Unimicronto gain 25% market share in Blackwell ABF, which will lift AI ABF GM to 30%+. However,factoring in FX losses and a weaker outlook for low-to-mid end ABF in 2H25, we lower our2025-26 average EPS estimate to NT$9.0 (from NT$9.6) and cut our target price to NT$155with 17x P/E.Outperform. We expectAjinomototo grow ABF revenues by 22%/21% in FY3/26&27, with divisionalprofit growing 36%/34% driven by pricing and operational leverage. While H1FY3/26margins may face pressure from Gunma line depreciation, H2 should benefit from higherspec ABF Film and the substrate production ramp for Rubin. AI end uses accounted for c.11%of ABF volumes in FY3/24, and we expect this to rise to 23% in FY3/27. We raised ourFY3/27 ABF BP est by 4% and overall Ajinomoto EBITDA est by 1.4% to ¥329b. We are now2% /10% above BBG consensus.Outperform, PT ¥4,700, 30% upside. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Ibiden: We rate Ibiden Market-perform with Price Target of JPY5880. Unimicron: We rate Unimicron Outperform with Price Target of NT$155. Ajinomoto: We rate Ajinomoto Outperform and have raised out Target price to ¥4,700, reflecting ¥329b of NTM+1 EBITDAwhile maintaining our 14.5x multiple (model link). DETAILS In this report, we update the latest supply and demand situation for ABF substrate and upstream material industry, and updateour views and estimates on coverage companies. OVERSUPPLY PERSISTS, BUT DEMAND OUTGROWS SUPPLY WITH SPOTLIGHT IN AI SERVER We revised our industry supply demand model after the March quarter reporting, and updated our estimates for 2025/26. We are incrementally more positive on the industry for both demand and supply. On the demand side, we raise AI GPU demandslightly due to the ramp up of Blackwell and Rubin chips which has bigger die size and layer count. On the supply (capacity) side,several substrate suppliers slowed their capacity expansion. However, the ABF substrate industry will remain in oversupplyfor years (Exhibit 1). On the bright side, the gap is slowly narrowing, as the demand growth of 10% outgrows capacity supplygrowth of 5% in 2024 (Exhibit 2). SUPPLIER CAPACITY ADJUSTMENT Suppliers are adj