退出俄罗斯：潜在影响是什么？

EUROPE | BanksUniCredit Exit from Russia: what's the potential impact? We estimate that UniCredit’s potential exit from its Russian subsidiary, AOUniCredit, under the terms recently reported in the press, would result in acapital hit of c.25 basis points. Despite the low asset valuation, we believe thatan exit would remove an overhang on the stock and de-risk the bank's excesscapital, which benefited from the Ruble revaluation in the last quarter by 26bps. The facts:Last week, local press (Milano Finanza) reported that two Dubai-based Emirati funds,Asas Capital and Mada Capital, are preparing a bid for Unicredit Russia. A non-binding offer,expected to come through this week according to the article, could amount to $1.2bn and wasalready discussed with the Italian government to gauge political support. The transaction must beapproved by Russian authorities and could face competition from other interested funds. UniCredithas not commented on the report. What could it mean for UCG's capital?As shown in the Exhibit, we estimate a 24bps CET1 hitfrom this deal based on a valuation in line with press reports at $1.2bn/€1.1bn. We also assume analmost total reduction in Russian RWAs (a small amount linked to cross-border and other Russianexposures could remain), that the loss is non-tax deductible, and we also include the effect ofincreased threshold deductions on CET1. The 24bps hit compares with a cost of an "extreme loss"scenario in Russia, amounting to c.80bps as of 1Q25 (including threshold deduction impacts), asper company disclosure. The valuation appears depressed relative to the business’s recent earnings resilience, implyinga P/E below 2x, based on 2024 earnings in Russia. However, the valuation needs to comply withRussian regulations around mandatory discounts on sales of Russian assets owned by Westerncompanies. Despite the low asset valuation, we believe that an exit would remove an overhang onthe stock and de-risk the bank's excess capital, which benefited from the Ruble revaluation in thelast quarter (+26bps in CET1 in 1Q25). What could it mean for UCG's P&L?In 2024, UniCredit generated €577m net income (6% of thegroup) in Russia; however, Visible Alpha consensus has a lower contribution in the coming yearsat €270m/€135m in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This reduces the impact on EPS projections toa modest 3%/1% in 2026 and 2027. The recently acquired stake in Alpha can fill the gap.The recently increased stake in the Greeklender (UniCredit now owns 19.3% of Alpha and has asked for permission to reach 29.9%) allowsthe bank to account for the stake as an equity-accounted company, leading to the P&L recognitionof a proportional share of net income. We project the Greek bank delivering net income of €1.1bn in2027, which translates to a net income contribution of €0.2-0.3bn for the Italian lender, dependingon the final ownership. Marco Nicolai, CFA * | Equity Analyst+39 02 3601 1946 | mnicolai@jefferies.com Alexander Demetriou ^ | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7029 8593 | ademetriou@jefferies.com Joseph Dickerson * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8309 | jdickerson@jefferies.com Company Description UniCredit UniCredit is a leading pan-European commercial bank with significant operations in Italy, Germany, Austria, and Central & Eastern Europe and totalassets of >EUR900bn. The bank grew significantly both internationally and in domestic Italy in the period 2005-7 through the acquisitions of HVB,Bank Austria, and Capitalia. Recent years have seen greater retrenchment/simplification with sales of subsidiaries such as Pekao (Poland), Pioneer(asset management), and Fineco. Company Valuation/Risks UniCredit Price target derived through ROE/COE valuation model. Risks to downside include increased political risk/NPL formation, while overly aggressive ECBpolicy normalisation could lead to a re-emergence of sovereign risk concerns. Risks to the upside include a more robust macro performance andimplications for provisions. Analyst Certification: I, Marco Nicolai, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report. I, Alexander Demetriou, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report. I, Joseph Dickerson, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indire