墨西哥关税最新情况：钢铁关税上调可能引发紧张局势

EconomicsMexico Steel tariff increase may create tension ◆The US raised the tariff on steel to 50% (from 25% before) on4 June, and Mexicowas not exempted from this measure… Jose Carlos SanchezChief Economist, MexicoHSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, GrupoFinanciero HSBCjose.c.sanchez@hsbc.com.mx+52 55 5721 5623 ◆… which could prompt a reaction from Mexico by next week;this is a downside risk for markets to monitor closely… ◆… given the key role of the industry and the uncertainty itcould add to bi-lateral talks aheadof the USMCA review Tariff sagacontinues;possibleretaliation on US steel Mexico has made progress on some key requests from the US (i.e. steep declines inencounters at the border and fentanylseizures).Also, despite the imposition of sometariffs from the US, Mexico’s government has kept a ‘cool head’ approach, by notretaliating (seeMexico Tariffs Update: What’s now exempt?, 7 MarchandMexico’sTariff Reaction: ‘Cool head’ approach stays, but retaliation could come, 4 March). However, the fact that Mexico was not exempted from theUS’ssteeltariffincrease to50% (from 25%) on 4 Junecould create somefriction (i.e. potential retaliation byputting tariffs on USsteel).Mexico’s president said measures could come by nextweek unless there is a steel deal with the US (Bloomberg, 4 June). Mexico’s discomfort relatesto thesteeltrade deficit Mexico’s discomfort stems fromitsdeficit with the US on the steel industry. Usingfigures fromthe Mexican Chamber of Iron and SteelIndustry (CANACERO), 76.1%ofMexico’stotal steelexports wentto the US, 3.8% to Canada and 2.9% to SaudiArabiain 2024 (El Economista, 4 June).Also,the US is the top seller of steel toMexico. This is a key sector due to itsparticipation in other industries, such as theauto,auto-related,and overall manufacturingsectors. This isthe reasonMexicohasaskedto be exempted from this tariff increase. The unfolding of this potential friction is a key theme to monitor A potential benign scenario (i.e. status quo) would be an exemption for Mexico,before the latter potentially retaliates next week (Bloomberg, 4 June). This scenarioimplies limited impact on markets or even a mild positive reaction, given relativeconditions with other countries. However, a more concerning scenario would be if this measure stands and promptsretaliationfrom Mexico, as it could weaken growth prospects further, increaseinflationary risks,and potentially affectthe pricing of some assets as well. Inparticular, the potential risks for Banxico’sassumptionsshould be monitored closely.Our end-2025 policy rate forecast stands at 7.5% GCC Exchanges Conference 2025 16 -19 June, The May Fair Hotel, London Register Issuer of report:HSBCMéxico, SA, Institución deBanca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero HSBC Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report,including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and anyotherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Jose Carlos Sanchez Important disclosures This document has been prepared and is being distributed by the Research Department of HSBC and is intended solely for theclients of HSBC and is not for publication to other persons, whether through the press or by other means. This document is for information purposes only and it should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer tobuy the securities or other investment products mentioned in it and/or to participate in any trading strategy. Advice in this documentis general and should not be construed as personal advice, given it has been prepared without taking account of the objectives,financial situation or needs of any particular investor.Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the advice, consider theappropriateness of the advice, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. If necessary, seek professionalinvestment and tax advice. Certain investment products mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries, and they maynot be suitable for