电网困境：项目取消数量增加对德克萨斯州电力和独立发电商有利

Julien Dumoulin-Smith * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2066 | jds@jefferies.comPaul Zimbardo * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8497 | pzimbardo@jefferies.comBrian Russo, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8559 | brusso@jefferies.comJamieson Ward, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2081 | jamieson.ward@jefferies.comDushyant Ailani, CFA * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8318 | dailani@jefferies.comTanner James, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 788-8667 | tjames@jefferies.comWhitney Mutalemwa * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 707-6413 | wmutalemwa@jefferies.comHannah Velasquez * | Equity Associate+1 (347) 982-6038 | hvelasquez@jefferies.comEthan Corcoran * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-2462 | ecorcoran@jefferies.comSpark Li * | Equity Associate+1 (713) 308-4573 (office) | sli8@jefferies.comQudrat Qureshi * | Equity Associate(646) 530-5925 | qqureshi@jefferies.com.Source: Jefferies LLC & Electric Reliability Council of Texas(ERCOT) Generation Interconnection Status (GIS)Repowering capacities show net changes from the original(which can be zero or negative). For self-serve load projects,the capacity is the maximum net MW to the grid. 2027 PJM and Texas Spark Spreads have converged with both regions being $24/MWh. PJMhas historically offered higher spark spreads but the economics of both regions has significantlyimproved for natural gas plants. To the extent power prices increases from less renewables andstorage development, that would have more of a positive impact in Texas than PJM due to thescarcity pricing dynamics.Exhibit 1 - 2027 ERCOT North and PJM West Spark Spreads ($/MWh)7.5x Heat Rate.Source: BloombergCancellations as a BarometerBattery & Solar:Batteries in Texas are generally merchant one/two hour assets that are designed to capture thepeak scarcity hours, which has a significant impact on merchant pricing. With the Texas scarcitypricing Operating Reserve Demand Curve (ORDC) regime, one hour at $4,500/MWh is worth ~$0.50around-the-clock, roughly 1% of the forward power prices. In April 2025, battery storage had 2.4GWof cancellations, which was the largest since at least 2024. Large months of project cancellationsare not uncommon though with 2GW in October 2024 and 1.2GW in December 2024Solar saw second-largest cancellations overall and is running ahead of the YTD 2024 tally.Natural Gas:Current ERCOT data reveals a significant spike in gas-fired power project terminations over theperiod. After a brief lull since mid-year 2024, cancellations surged in April and May through 630 MWand 1,220 MW respectively:•Halyard Wharton 484MW•FGE Texas 2 Gas 732MW•Sugar Land Power Plant 148MW•ELTEX Power Station 488MWNumerous TEF applications have been denied or otherwise terminated with some examples below.These have been backfilled by proposed project by NRG and Vistra as offsetting cases, but the coreconclusion remains: it is difficult to build new natural gas generation economically even in Texas.•Constellation Wolf Hollow III 300MW Application 143•Engie Flexible Generation 930MW Application 223•Wattbridge 600MW Application 215Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. •EmerClear Management/Jupiter Island Capital 900MW Application 131•Frontier Group of Companies/Lonestar Industrial Park LLC 162MW Application 122PUCT Docket 56896Wind and biomass cancellations were minimal with no major deviation from the broader industrytrend.2025 Cancellations already nearing 2024's numbers, despite having 6 months left until year-end:Exhibit 2 - ERCOT Project Cancellations: 2024 vs. 2025 YTD.-5,00010,00015,00020,00025,000Project MWSource: Jefferies LLC, ERCOT Inc.Stalled Pipeline: Tracking Inactive ProjectsThere exists a growing numbers of inactive projects within the ERCOT/Texas Region. Solar is largelydriving this number with 11,631 MW idle power project capacity.Exhibit 3 - ERCOT Total Inactive Project Capacity since September 2019.Source: Jefferies LLC, ERCOT Inc.Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 9,7515,8931,2261,8629,5218,21720242025 YTDTotal CancellationsBatteryGasSolarGas279MWSolar11,641MWWind6,793MWBattery8,509MW .Gas2019202020212022202320242025TotalAfter an extended period of de minims sub-500MW of monthly projects being deemed inactive, therehas been a significant uptick in 2024 and 2025. From September 2019-December 2023 a total of7.5GW were deemed inactive followed by 14.3GW in 2024 and now 5.4GW YTD 2025.Exhibit 5 - ERCOT Monthly Projects Deemed Inactive (MW).05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002019-102019-112019-92020-3Source: ERCOTNEE Direct InvolvementThe Exhibit below shows projects in the GIS with the interconnecting entity NextEra. There is 5.3GWwith 600MW 2027, ~2GW 2028, and ~2.6GW 2029. The 2029 projects are 2GW solar and 0.6GWwind with the solar targeted fo