拜耳公司作物科学网络研讨会的延迟反馈及MAHA报告分析：五年计划详述加速增长和盈利能力

Restricted - External BAYGn.DE/BAYN GYEQUAL WEIGHTEuropean Pharmaceuticals& Life SciencesNEUTRALPrice TargetEUR 25.00Price (26-May-25)EUR 24.68Potential Upside/Downside+1.3%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchEuropean Pharmaceuticals & LifeSciencesEmily Field, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 6263emily.field@barclays.comBarclays, UKCharles Pitman-King, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 6023charles.pitman-king@barclays.comBarclays, UKShirley Chen, PhD+44 (0)20 7773 2109shirley.chen@barclays.comBarclays, UKYihan Li, PhD+44 (0)20 3555 3563yihan.li@barclays.comBarclays, UKSidhartha Modi+91 (0)22 6175 1326sidhartha.modi@barclays.comBarclays, UKAnurag Surendra Sharma+91 (0)22 6175 4548anuragsu.sharma@barclays.comBarclays, UK we await potential updates from SCOTUS in June or October, that said we do seesentiment as improving amongst investors regarding the potential for a legal win inRoundup and also as seeing diminished US policy risk.(see:Bayer AG: Another potentialround for Roundup litigation at SCOTUS (07/04/25), EU Pharma/HPC & US MedTech: Feedback fromlegal KOL call on US mass tort litigation for Bayer, RKT/ABT and JNJ (15/04/25)).Key takes from CS Investor Webinar:•Market overview:The company emphasized the attractiveness of its primary segments,•Seeds & Traits (S&T) and Crop Protection (CP), highlighting their robust margins, lowercyclicality compared to other agricultural inputs, and substantial barriers to market entry.However, the agricultural market overall remains cyclical, influenced by grain prices,regulatory conditions, weather patterns, and pest pressures. Bayer expects the current down-cycle toshifttowards recovery by 2026. Additionally, long-term structural drivers such asglobal population growth, climate change, and shrinking arable land per capita necessitateongoing innovation to sustainably meet future agricultural demands.•Bayer's advantage anddifferentiation:Strategically, Bayerdifferentiatesitself through•multiple competitive advantages. The company maintains leading market positions, ranked#1 globally in Seeds & Traits and #2 in Crop Protection. Its robust innovation pipeline standsout, boasting transformative R&D advancements and new technologies that collectivelyrepresent a >€32bn peak sales potential. Further enhancing its competitive stance is Bayer’sunmatched global market reach, complemented by sophisticated digital agronomicsolutions, such as the FieldView platform. Moreover, Bayer looks well-positioned to leveragegrowth in emerging markets beyond its traditional core segments, notably biofuels andbiological solutions.•Five-year plan:Financially, Bayer has laid out a detailed 5-year framework designed to•improve its financial profile and operational resilience.°Strengthening the foundation (2024-2029):The company aims to strengthen its financial°foundation between 2024 and 2029 by implementing significant margin improvements andcash-flow optimizations, targeting >€1.0bn in margin expansion and €1.5bn cumulativecash from working capitalefficiencies.Key initiatives in this foundational phase includeportfolio streamlining and targeted R&D investments, optimizing sourcing and productionefficiency,particularly byshiftingsourcing from Asian producers, and refining its go-to-market strategy to enhance profitability and cash productivity.°Capitalizing pipeline value: Bayer plans to deliver >€3.5bn incremental innovation-driven°sales. For its Corn platform, Bayer will maintain global #1 position through blockbusterinnovations (Preceon Smart Corn System, biotech traits like CRW4 and LEP4/LEP5),geographic expansion (EU, Africa, Asia), and advanced go-to-market (GTM). In Soybeans,Bayer aims to reinforce its leadership position in NA by introducing innovative new traits(Vyconic Soybeans launching in 2027) and genetic improvements. For Crop Protection,Bayer willshiftfocus to high-margin markets, streamlined productofferings,andleveraging AI-based discovery platform (CropKey) to boost innovationefficiency.°Expansion beyond Core (2030+):Bayer is committed to expanding into new value pools°thatofferadditional long-term growth, leveraging a strong pipeline and partnerships forbiocontrol/bio-stimulant and biofuel markets.•Financial goal (2029 targets):>€25bn net sales, mid-20% cEBITDA margins with an average•annual margin expansion between 100-150bps, >€3 sustainable free operating cash flow(FOCF) by 2029.2 •Key potential risksinclude margin pressures in crop protection due to generics and•overcapacity in China; Bayer’s initiatives address these by focusing R&D and production onprofitable segments. Additionally, volatility from glyphosate (GLY) business need to bemanaged separately due to its high cyclicality and margin dilution. Detailed notes:Introduction:•Focus on the five-year framework to unlock the next phase of leadership.••Importance of understanding the market, business model, and strategy.••Aim to improve margin and cash contribution.••Value triangle: sales, margin, and cash.•Innovation Summit:•Hosted almost two year