基立福公司（GRF）：穆迪评级提升带来积极势头

An improving Mood('ys) for GRF We review our debt, interest and cash tax forecasts, andadjust our FCF expectations for FY25/26/27, having alsorecently spoken with CFO Rahul Srinivasan. With sharesstarting to rebound, a Moody's upgrade and favourabletariff/recessionpositioning, we suggest GRF remains on track tooutperform. GRLS.MC/GRF SMOVERWEIGHTUnchanged European Pharmaceuticals& Life SciencesNEUTRALUnchanged Price TargetEUR 13.00Unchanged Price (26-May-25)EUR 9.47Potential Upside/Downside+37.2%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Following Moody's credit rating upgrade and having recently met with GRF CFO, RahulSrinivasan, we have further reviewed our FCF assumptions for Debt, Tax and Other, to clarify thepredicted below the line cash adjustments expected to impact FCF generation over the mid-term. Compared to the company's target for €3.5-3.75bn cumulative FCF generation ofFY25-29E, we now forecast a cumulative c€3.76bn FCF, for which we forecast FY25 FCF of €420mvs €350-400m guidance.Noting that shares have outperformed the SXXP over the pastmonth (+11.3% vs +3.8%), likely partly reflecting both the positive 1Q25 results (see;Grifols SA:1Q25 Results: +LSD% results beat despite unfavourable albumin phasing; FY25 guidancereiterated,12/05/25) and favourable UStariff/recessionpositionaffordedto GRF as a plasmaplayer (see;Grifols SA: China-UStariffs:What are the risks to GRF?,10/04/25), now with a Moody'scredit rating upgrade (Link, 22 May), bringing all GRF's bonds to B2, and in-line with its seniorsecured debt,we see positive momentum building for GRF shares. Market Cap (EUR mn)5967Shares Outstanding (mn)687.55Free Float (%)73.8252 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)2.2Dividend Yield (%)N/AReturn on Equity TTM (%)2.79Current BVPS (EUR)8.56Source: Bloomberg Price PerformanceExchange-MC52 Week rangeEUR 11.35-7.32 While key competition headwinds remain for GRF's CIDP and AATD revenues,we havecarefully modelled the likely impact of these headwinds andforecast a +6.2% FY25-28E top-line CAGR.As a reminder, for CIDP, the primary competition is from ARGX's Vyvgart/Hytrulo,where we maintain IVIg is likely to retain a LSD% growth profile as novel treatments areprimarily used in a 2L/IVIg-refractory setting, while for AATD, SAN's SAR447537 (INBRX-101) is setto readout P2 data in 2H25, before SAN will be able to determine whether the data issufficientto support a filing in 1H26, as currently guided, or whether a further trial is necessary.Delivering sales growth in-line with mid-cap peers at 6.2%, on track to reduce ND/EBITDAto c4.0x by end-FY25,and benefiting from UStariffprotection, potential US recession tailwindsand likely product exclusion from IRA/MFN negotiations, as well as experiencing no patentexpiry risk and steadily rebuilding management goodwill as cash generation improves,wereiterate our Overweight recommendation and PT €13. Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive charting European Pharmaceuticals & LifeSciences Three key takeaways from our CFO discussion: Charles Pitman-King, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 6023charles.pitman-king@barclays.comBarclays, UK 1.On Alpha-1: “Grifols has a strong hand and we remain confident about our positioning, evenif our plan reflects appropriate risk-adjusted prudence.” Emily Field, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 6263emily.field@barclays.comBarclays, UK Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Shirley Chen, PhD+44 (0)20 7773 2109shirley.chen@barclays.comBarclays, UK This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 8.Completed: 26-May-25, 23:47 GMTReleased: 27-May-25, 03:00 GMTRestricted - External °A polyclonal disease, we would note that AATD as a disease lends itself to a plasmabased-therapy, with recombinant therapies more ideally positioned to treat monoclonaldiseases, such as AChR+ MG. Given this, it is far from certain that SAN's SAR447537 is likelyto erode GRF's Prolastin market share as the same rate factor VIII PDT sales eroded torecombinants in Haemophilia, if approved. We also note that GRF's P3 SPARTA trial is setto readout in 2026E that could create further positive momentum for Prolastin-C. GivenGRF estimates only c15% of the market is currently diagnosed, hence itseffortsto providefree test-kits to try and build awareness, a new entrant could even help to expand thismarket. The incumbent Prolastin should also benefit from existing users being unlikely toswap treatments if well controlled. °With the pricing and treatment strategy of SAN remaining unknown unt