阿贝克隆比&费奇（ANF）：霍利斯特表现出色，更新后的财年指引包含当前关税

6.286.28 2025A2026E2027E4,948.65,201.25,349.44,948.65,106.05,253.010.6910.4410.4610.6910.4511.00 Corey Tarlowe * | Equity Analyst(212) 323-7541 | ctarlowe@jefferies.comRandal J. Konik * | Equity Analyst(212) 708-2719 | rkonik@jefferies.comKylie Cohu * | Equity Analyst(212) 778-8701 | kcohu@jefferies.comMantero Moreno-Cheek * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8407 | mmorenocheek@jefferies.comCarlos Gallagher * | Equity Associate+1 (786) 535-2025 | cgallagher1@jefferies.comTy-Lynn Johnson * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8339 | tjohnson2@jefferies.com What We See Ahead(1) Continued Hollister Growth Ahead w/ Strong Enterprise Margins.We see enhanced storeproductivity at Abercrombie providing a significant floor for enterprise EBIT margins ahead.Additionally, Hollister continues to improve. Ultimately, we believe mid-teens or higher operatingmargin is achievable for the enterprise while valuation is attractive.Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. The Long View: Abercrombie & FitchInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•We believe Hollister will return to outsized growth;Abercrombie'smomentum continues.•The company is now opening stores, and this should help to drive salesgrowth ahead.•Positive comps should be supported by encouraging trends for denim,women's dresses, and menswear.Base Case,$135, +75%•Continues to open stores•GM experiences slight cost tailwinds•ANF returns to a sustained 10%EBITmargin following strong expense managementinitiatives, GM tailwinds, and continued salesleverage•FY’27E EPS of $11.00; $135 PT is based on~12x P/E, ~7x EV/EBITDASustainability MattersTop material issue(s):1) Eco-Friendly Sourcing:improve sourcing to become more eco-friendly by 2025.2) Water & Wastewater Management:reducing waste at Global Home Office by 50% by 2025 comparedto 2019Company Target(s): 1)Source 30% of cotton as Better Cotton by 2024; Source 25% recycled polyesterby 2025 and more2)Mailers and polybags minimum of 50% recycled content by 20233)Reduce totalScope 1 and 2 GHG emissions by 47% by 2030 from a 2019 baseline4)30% reduction in water intensityin denim production by 2028; 50% use of recycled water by 20285)Invest $2M per year in communityorganizations with a focus on mental health & well-beingQs to mgmt:1)How will your changes in sourcing affect margins?2)What initiatives do you have in placeto increase your total company female, and Underrepresented Communities (URC) representation?ESG Sector Deep Dive: Multiline and Specialty Retailers & DistributorsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$185, +140%•A stronger teen consumer helps drive Hollistersales; Denim returns to growth.•Continued GM expansion from better full-priceselling and increased sales leverage from ahigher e-comm penetration•Operating margin increases to mid-teens %range•FY’27E EPS of $12.65; $185 PT is based on~15x P/E. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View2001801601401201008060402020252024Downside Scenario,$55, -29%•Top-line slows at both banners;Macroheadwinds hurt industry-wide apparel sales.•Supply chain efficiencies decrease; the ability tochase slows.•Enterprisebanners; GM constraints and increased SG&Ahurt LT OM targets.•FY’27E EPS of $9.90; $55 PT is based on ~6x P/E.Catalysts•Quick supply chain and ability to chase•Attractive A&F momentum continues due toresonating well with customer base; Hollisterwitnesses similar upside•Gilly Hicks and Social Tourist expansion•Acceleration of repurchase•Net positive store opening increases promotionsacross3 Chart 1 - ANF Income Statement.Abercrombie & Fitch, IncIncome Statement($ Millions, except per share amounts)Total SalesCost of SalesGross ProfitSelling ExpenseGeneral & Admin ExpenseOther Operating (Income), netOperating IncomeNet IncomeFully Diluted EPSFully Diluted Shares Outstanding% of SalesGross ProfitStore & Distribution ExpenseMarketing, General & Admin Expense (MG&A)Other Operating Income, netOperating IncomeTax Rate (% of Pretax)Net Income% Growth, YoYSalesGross ProfitStore & Distribution ExpenseMarketing, General & Admin Expense (MG&A)Other Operating Income, netOperating IncomeNet IncomeDiluted EPSBPs Change, YoYGross ProfitStore & Distribution ExpenseMarketing, General & Admin Expense (MG&A)Other Operating Income, netOperating IncomePretax IncomeNet IncomeSame Store SalesTotal CompanyAbercrombie (includes kids since FY'15)HollisterSource: Company Reports, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionAbercrombie & FitchAbercrombie & Fitch Inc. is a leading specialty retailer with Abercrombie & Fitch, abercrombie, Hollister, and Gilly Hicks brands.Company Valuat