利安德巴塞尔（LYB）：近期定价挑战持续，需求趋势可能依然波动

2024A2025E2026E2027E-30,701.031,375.032,162.0-3,311.04,136.04,821.0-4.046.107.5740,302.030,887.030,613.031,826.0 Laurence Alexander * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-2553 | lalexander@jefferies.comDaniel Rizzo * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-6284 | drizzo@jefferies.comKevin Estok * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8516 | kestok@jefferies.comXianrao Zhu * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8742 | xzhu@jefferies.comCarol Jiang * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-1714 | cjiang@jefferies.com The Long View: LyondellBasellInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•The investment thesis for LyondellBasell hinges on: 1/ Healthy & improvingrefinery crack margins near-term; 2/ Improving integrated chain marginsin 2024-2027; 3/ Healthy durables & autos markets; 4/ A widening ethane/naphtha spread; 5/ Evidence that productivity is sticking, and 6/ Successfulintegration of acquisitions and investments in circularity.Base Case,$63, +9%•A rebound in Chinese demand and growth inNorth America in 2H26.•Productivity efforts, growth projects, improvingrefiningmarginscontributeoffsetting impact of new industry projects.•2027E EPS: $7.70; Target Multiple: 8.2x; PriceTarget: $63Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1)Ecological Impactshave emerged as a critical issue for LYB, given seculartrends in favor of recycling and reducing microplastics and plastic waste;2)Materials Sourcing &Efficiency: Leveraging the US shale advantage and feedstock flexibility coupled with operating largeassets are critical to maintaining LyondellBasell’s competitive advantage.Company Target(s): 1)Net zero GMG emissions by 2050;2)50% minimum of electricity from renewablesources by 2030;3)MoReTec plant (expected on-line in 2025) is expected to use pyrolysis for chemicalrecycling. The 2030 goal is 2m tons of recycled and renewable-based polymer annually.Questions to Management: 1)Given the softer macro environment are customers more sensitive toprice and less focused on renewable plastics?2)Capital investment cycle in molecular recycling andalternative feedstocks?3)How can LyondellBasell decarbonize its operations while still protecting itscompetitive position?4)How could climate stress affect LyondellBasell’s operations in the Gulf Coast orits competitive position in Europe?ESG Sector Deep Dive: ChemicalsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. toEBITDA,Upside Scenario,$165, +185%•Peak ROA of 23%.•Volume growth 100bps above trend.•Productivity efforts contribute >$1bn to EBITDA,Growthprojects>$1.5bn,Ethylene chainmargins rise ~$0.10/lb.•Peak EPS:$15;Target Multiple:11x;PriceTarget: $165. Downside Scenario,$50, -14%•Trough ROA of 5%.•Volume growth 100bps below trend.•Supply increases cause a pricing decline•Cost inflation more than offsets productivityinitiatives.•Trough EPS: $5.00; Target Multiple: 10x; PriceTarget: $50.Catalysts•Further restructuring and M&A.•Clarity on the amount of FCF to be returned toshareholders each year.•Shares respond as outages confirm path topeak conditions in 2025-2027.•Progress on molecular recycling and bio-PE/PPinitiatives. 2 Exhibit 1 - LYB Income Statement.Net Sales% ChangeCost of Goods SoldGross ProfitGross Margin% ChangeSelling, General & AdminSG&A/Sales% ChangeResearch & DevelopmentR&D/Sales% ChangeOperating ProfitOperating Margin% ChangeNet Financials% ChangePretax IncomePretax Margin% ChangeTaxesTax RateMinority InterestNet IncomeNet Margin% ChangeBasic Shares Outstanding (in mil)Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding (in mil)% ChangeBasic EPS% ChangeFully Diluted EPS% ChangeSource: Jefferies, Company DataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionLyondellBasellLyondellBasell is one of the world's largest plastics, chemical and refining companies. The company manufactures products at 59 sites in 18 countries.LyondellBasell products and technologies are used in packaging, electronics, automotive components, home furnishings, construction materials andbiofuels.Company Valuation/RisksLyondellBasellOur price target of $63 is based on 8.2x 2027E EPS and is based on peer multiples and feedstock advantage. Key risks: 1) deterioration in demand; 2)a narrowing ethane naphtha spread; 3) impacts on sentiment from new capacity or a contracting yield curve; or 4) mismanaged M&A.Analyst Certification:I, Laurence Alexander, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Daniel Rizzo, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject secu