美国烈酒- 2025年5月去高端化追踪

Edward Mundy, ACA * | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7029 8476 | emundy@jefferies.comAndrei Andon-Ionita, CFA * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 207548-4173 | aandon-ionita@jefferies.com White spirits and RTD.Vodka - New Amsterdam has overtaken Titos as the key growth enginein vodka. Downtrading is visible in vodka. RTD growth was driven by Buzzballz, with Surfside,Sun Cruiser, ABI's Nutrl and Cutwater are amongst the top growers in the category.Profitexposure to US.c.50% Diageo, c.40% Remy, c.25% Campari and Pernod.Please see important disclosure information on pages 56 - 62 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Table of ContentsKey conclusionsCategory analysis: Recent trendsWhich brands are driving growth?Growth split between distilled spirits and RTD/RTSTequila in ChartsAmerican Whiskey in ChartsScotch Whisky in ChartsCanadian Whisky in ChartsIrish Whiskey in ChartsCognac in ChartsVodka in ChartsGin in ChartsRum in ChartsReady-to-Drink in ChartsLiqueurs/Cordials in ChartsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 56 - 62 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Premiumisation – long-term structural driver with a pause in 2024The spirits category in the US showed strong performance between 2011 and 2022. However,2023-2024 were the reset years following the outsized growth registered during and after Covid.Through the financial crisis, volume growth continued at around 2%, though there were a fewquarters of downtrading before growth came right back.Exhibit 5 - US spirits are growing below the historical trend line c.4%US spirits value USD growth and volume growth.-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2004200520062007Source: Jefferies, DISCUSPremiumisation trends accelerated during COVID and paused in2023-2024As the below charts show, high-end and super-premium accelerated during COVID and into 2021.In 2024, as spirits consumption continued to normalise and RTDs outgrew the industry, the "value"segment outperformed higher-priced segments. This largely owes to growth of spirits basedRTDs.Exhibit 6 - US volume spirits growth by price band.TotalValue201920202021Source: Jefferies, DISCUSAssessing the risk of downtrading as growth normalisesOur real-time tracker allows us to assess whether de-premiumisation is taking place.1.Within categories, traditional downtrading from expensive to cheap brands.2.From expensive categories such as cognac or tequila to cheaper categories such as brandyor vodka/rum.Spirits is an affordable luxuryWe view spirits as an affordable luxury, with households that buy spirits spending around $300a year on the category, on average. It is an occasional purchase, something that the consumermight buy five, six, or seven times a year. Therefore, there is not necessarily the same dynamicthat would lead to consumer downtrading, for instance, from a premium detergent to a privatelabel detergent.Please see important disclosure information on pages 56 - 62 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 2008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023US Spirits (value)US Spirits volumesMSD range : 4-6%PremiumHigh EndPremiumSuper Premium202220232024Exhibit 7 - US Value spirits growth by price band.Total20192020Source: Jefferies, DISCUS 20242021 The industry is normalising after severalyears of above-average growth during andafter COVIDValuePremiumHigh End PremiumSuper Premium2022202320244 What is likely to happen in the event of a major consumer confidenceshock?In the event of a weaker consumer environment, some early indicators include:•Shift from on-trade to off-trade.This includes pre-gaming so that consumers do not needto spend $20, or in some instances as much as $35, on a cocktail in the on-trade.•Shifts in off-trade channel mix.Consumers will likely increase their shopping at clubs andwarehouses as opposed to liquor stores.•Shifts in pack format–bigger packs to drive value:Sizing is an important factor in termsof how pack mix is changing. If the 1.75 litre vodka format picks up, this suggests a renewedfocus on value.•Shifts in pack format–smaller packs to boost affordability:For some categories, suchas cognac, the consumer may downtrade from 750ml to 375ml to bring down the headlineprice of the purchase. This is taking place across the broader industry with 375ml and belowshowing growth in 2024, and 750ml and above showing declines. See chart below.•Private label.Remains small in spirits, given protection from excise duty; however, there isa risk that private label sales pick up.Exhibit 8 - Small sized bottles are driving momentum and share within the US spirits market2024 volume growth small pack (<375ml) vs total spirits.-2.8%-4.0%-3.0%Total marketSmall packSource: Jefferies estimates, company commentaryKey conclusionsWhat are the conclusions from our analysis?•Tequila:Tequila remained an import