爱琴海航空：强劲的第一季度交易预示着夏季前景良好

Strong 1Q trading augurs well forsummer 1Q profitability at all levels exceeded our and consensusestimates and improved clearly YoY, despite the lack of Greekand Western Easter. Travel demand to and from Athensremains vibrant. We raise FY25E EBIT by 13%, remain OW, PTto €16 from €14.50. AGNr.AT/AEGN GAOVERWEIGHTUnchanged European TransportationNEUTRALUnchanged Price TargetEUR 16.00raised 10% from EUR 14.50 Price (27-May-25)EUR 12.58Potential Upside/Downside+27.2%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Impressive 1Q performance: Aegean delivered an impressive 1Q performance, with unitrevenues increasing 3% and EBIT level ex fuel unit costs rising 2%. We recognise that costperformance may be distorted by opaque GTF compensation. Nonetheless, given that Aegeanhas 10 of its 66 narrowbody jetaircraftgrounded with GTF problems, we think this costperformance is impressive. Given that Aegean increased capacity by 11% into a March quarterthat lacked both Greek and Western Easter, in a period when airlines are concerned aboutconsumer resilience, this unit revenue performance is impressive, in our view. Market Cap (EUR mn)1134Shares Outstanding (mn)90.17Free Float (%)56.0052 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)0.1Dividend Yield (%)6.40Return on Equity TTM (%)28.24Current BVPS (EUR)5.59Source: Bloomberg A very healthy home market, especially inoff-peak: As we have also discussed in ourcoverage of Athens airport here, Greece is seeing very healthy inbound demand from touristsacross Europe, as well as from further afield. While Aegean is not active in the intercontinentalmarket, its domestic operations do benefit from the strong inflows from markets such as the US,which couldoffera rare possiblesoftnessin peak summer. The resumption of flights to Israel isalso proving more challenging than it appeared a month ago. Nonetheless the summer outlooklooks good, supported by the relatively strong Greek economy and hence robust outboundGreek demand, healthy tourist demand for Greece and Athens' emerging role as a year-roundcitybreak market, which should only strengthen as the major development of Helenikon leisurefacility opens. Price PerformanceExchange-ATH52 Week rangeEUR 13.08-9.07 Summer prospects look favourable: Looking ahead to summer, capacity growth is set toslow. Capacity filings suggest Aegean will grow by 5% and 9% in 2Q and 3Q,after11% growth in1Q. Total capacity growth into Athens is set to grow 7% and 5%after14% growth in 1Q. With thebenefit of Easter in 2Q, this slowing growth, yet continued strong consumer appetite to visitGreece, should prove highly supportive to unit revenues this summer. We would imagine anysoftnessin US inbound volumes will be absorbed by the market. Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive charting European TransportationAndrew Lobbenberg+44 (0)20 3555 0639andrew.lobbenberg@barclays.comBarclays, UK MRO and training developments look rational: We continue to support Aegean's move todevelop its operations in pilot training and MRO. These are both bottlenecks within the aviationsupply chain and Aegean's location in a low-cost, easily accessed location, should make the Rahul Singh+91 (0)22 6175 2529rahul.xb.singh@barclays.comBarclays, UK Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Marco Limite+39 (0)2 6372 2582marco.limite@barclays.comBBI, Milan This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 11.Completed: 28-May-25, 16:51 GMTReleased: 28-May-25, 16:55 GMTRestricted - External facilities a success. In 1Q the other revenue stream increased by 24%, which may include someearly returns from these new businesses, though we expect more meaningful impact fromexternal revenues in the coming years. We raise EBIT for FY25E by 13%: Aegean's 1Q25 EBIT was notably stronger than weanticipated, with 3% RASK growth in the face of high capacity growth and the lack of Easter. Wenow model unit revenues rising 0.9% compared with our previous estimate of unit revenuesfalling 0.7%. Below EBIT in 1Q, PBT and net profit were flattered by a €13m favourable swing innon-cash FX, which we expect will partially reverse in 2Q. Maintain OW rating, raise PT to €16.00 from €14.50: We raise our estimates and expect FY25consensus EBIT to rise. Demand to Greece remains vibrant, with strong trading in the robust lowseason and strong outbound demand both pointing towards a strong summer. We see verymodest risk to inbound flows from the US to Greece in peak summer, but, as Aegean is a pureshort- and medium-haul op