巴克莱美容TikTok追踪报告第10卷

Barclays Beauty TikTok TrackerVol. 10 In the rolling 3-months ending March 2025, post volumedeclined -13% YoY, a sharp deceleration from the trends seenin December. On a QoQ basis, post volume was flat onaverage, 10 of the 38 brands saw double-digit declines in postvolume. U.S. CHPC & BeveragesNEUTRAL U.S. CHPC & BeveragesLauren R. Lieberman+1 212 526 3112lauren.lieberman@barclays.comBCI, US Kate Grafstein+1 212 526 5755kate.grafstein@barclays.comBCI, US While the future of TikTok remains uncertain, with the potential for TikTok to once again getbanned in the US if it does not get sold by June 19th, it has become an authority in beauty forthe next generation of consumers, vis-à-vis understanding the latest trends ("TikTok Made MeBuy It", beauty hacks), tutorials (e.g., get ready with me, how to's & beauty tips) and productexploration (e.g., discovering dupes), not to mention TikTok Shop is becoming more relevant tothe overall beauty retail landscape. Leveraging unique social media data from Social Standards,in the charts on the following pages we show trended monthly post volume on TikTok acrossseveral multinational brands and our key observations around this data. We also include aspotlight on the top 50 emerging beauty brands using Social Standards' Brand Maps and overlayhow these brands post volume compares to the multinational players. European Consumer StaplesPatrick Folan+44 (0)20 7773 1712patrick.folan@barclays.comBarclays, UK European Luxury Goods & SpecialtyRetail Carole Madjo+44 (0)20 3134 3168carole.madjo@barclays.comBarclays, UK Barclays Beauty TikTok Tracker Summary Using Social Standards data, in Figures 1 & 2 we show trended monthly post volume and YoYgrowth on TikTok aggregated across 38 multinational beauty brands from seven manufacturersthat together comprise roughly half of the global beauty market. The figures cited arecalculated on a three-month rolling average and include all TikTok posts globally with theexception of China. In the rolling three months ending in March 2025, these 38 beauty brandshad over 260,000 organic posts on TikTok, though post volume declined -13% YoY, a trend we'veseen since the beginning of 2025 when TikTok was banned for a brief period of time on January19th. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, post volume was flat on average in the 3-months endingMarch vs. December. Quarter-on-quarter post volume turned negative in July 2024 and hadbeen declining each month since up until March 2025. FIGURE 4. Across the 38 brands we track, post volume was flat on average in the 3-months endingMarch 2025 Source: Social Standards, Barclays Research Top 15 brands by aggregate post volume In the rolling three months ending in March 2025, L'Oreal's Maybelline brand continued togenerate the most post volume on TikTok with nearly 30,000 posts. NYX (L'Oreal), e.l.f. Beautyand Dior (LVMH) each have ~20,000 posts. FIGURE 5. Among the top 15 brands with the most post volume on TikTok in the rolling three monthsending March 2025, the top 5 constitute ~41% of the aggregate post volume Top 15 brands' quarter-on-quarter growth inaggregate post volume Looking at TikTok post volume in absolute terms is important for understanding which brandsare resonating the most among Gen Z consumers in aggregate, but a quarter-on-quarter viewshows us which brands are trending more on the platform than others, be it due to a newproduct launch, or a specific TikTok "challenge," among other factors. In the rolling 3-monthaverage ending March, Vichy (L'Oreal), Rimmel (Coty), Garnier (L'Oreal) and it Cosmetics(L'Oreal) saw the greatest QoQ increases in post volume with each up over 25%. FIGURE 6. 9 of the 38 brands we track saw a 10% or greater quarter-on-quarter increase in TikTok postvolume Source: Social Standards, Barclays Research Bottom 15 brands by aggregate post volume Below we show which of the 38 brands we track have seen the least post volume on TikTok inthe rolling three months ending in March 2025. Given their relative size, it is not surprising to seebrands such as Youth to the People and Maison Margiela Fragrances in the bottom 15. However,larger brands such as CoverGirl (Coty), as well as Tom Ford and Jo Malone (Estee Lauder) stillappear among the bottom 15. Bottom 15 brands' quarter-on-quarter growth(decline) in aggregate post volume Several beauty brands saw a marked deceleration in post volume QoQ, with KVD Vegan Beauty(LVMH), Smashbox (Estee Lauder) and the Estee Lauder brand each declining over 20% QoQ.Notably, elf beauty continued to see a decline in QoQ post volume as did Fenty Beauty andDior. Source: Social Standards, Barclays Research Index: Monthly Post Volume on TikTok byManufacturer The Estée Lauder Companies (Equal Weight / Neu; PT: $56) In our TikTok tracker through March, Too Faced grew +9% and Clinique grew +5%, but morenotable were the significant QoQ declines at the Estee Lauder brand (-19%), Smashbox (-22%)and Tom Ford (-13%). In Figure 11, we show the t