信达生物（1801 HK）买入：IL-2/PD1的积极数据可能支持授权许可潜力

Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and theanalyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.IL-2/PD1 showed promising anti-tumor efficacy in colorectalcancer(CRC) and lung cancerNon-oncology pipeline progress on trackMaintain Buy;raise TP to HKD65.80from HKD60.00IL-2/PD1delivered promising efficacyat2025 ASCO,withencouragingproof-of-concept (POC) in melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, and colorectal cancer (CRC).Wethereforeexpectmoreph III studiesto beinitiated in Chinaandturn more optimisticon IBI343’sout-licensepotential,givenglobal big pharma’s increasing interest inPD1-based bsAb.Innovent’s IBI363 (CLDN18.2 ADC) also showed anti-tumor signalsin pancreatic cancer(PC)at2025 ASCO(2025 ASCO oversea readout, SeeBiopharma: ASCO 2025 planner, 28 May 2025). Innovent’s shares have risenc63%YTD (vs +32% for HSHCI) andaretrading at8x2025e P/S,vs12xfor China biotechpeers;we think it is still attractively valued. We expectthelaunch of GLP1/GIP, NDAfiling of CLDN18.2 ADC, andbusiness development (BD)tosupportfurthershareprice growth. However, execution of biosimilar volume-based procurement (VBP)could still beamajor downside risktoInnovent’s growth outlook.PD1based bsAb underthespotlight,todrive BD potential:Innovent’sfirst-in-class(FIC)drugIBI363 (IL-2/PD1) reported promising anti-tumor efficacy, as itsmonotherapyreached 16.1 monthoverall survival (OS)in3L+ CRC, beating HCM’s Fruq’s 9.3month(FRESCOstudy);3L+ NSCLC reached 7.3/4.2 month PFS in nsq/sq subgroup, alsobeating SOC of chemotherapyof3-4months(seeexhibits1-2). Innovent has initiatedChina pivotal trialin 1L melanoma, head-to-head vs Keytruda(source: Companydata,Pharmcube). We expect promising anti-tumor efficacy could support more ph IIIstudiesin CRC and NSCLC,andincreasingout-license opportunities,especiallywithgreaterrecognition ofPD1-based bsAb assets fromglobalbig pharma,givenpatentcliffsand US price cut pressure.DifferentiatedGLP1/GCGRassetswithstrongliver fat reductionefficacy:Despitewe forecast a potentialdelaytoIBI362 (GLP1/GCGR)’s China launch until 2H25, we likeIBI362’spromising liver fat reduction efficacy with-80.2% in Week 48 in 6mg QWsubgroup, and metabolicindeximprovement. Italso reportedsolid weight loss efficacy,with ph III GLORY-1 reporting-12.05%/-14.84% in Week 48 in 4/6mg QWsubgroup(seeexhibit3).In addition,Innoventhasbuiltupastrongearly-stage metabolismfranchise, including IBI3016 (AGT siRNA) forhypertension,andIBI3032 (GLP1 smallmolecule), IBI3012 (GLP1/GIP1/GCG) and IBI3030 (PCSK9-GLP1/GCG/GIP) forobesity.Weexpectfirst-in-human (FIH) studiesfor IBI3032 and IBI3012 in 2025-1H26e.RetainBuy;liftTP to HKD65.80 (from HKD60.00):We raise our 2025-27 estimatesby 6-11%,withsolid sales growth andeffective cost control.We continue to value thestock using a DCF methodology. OurnewHKD65.80 TP implies11% upside.We retainour Buy rating, givenwe are optimistic on Innovent’s commercial outlook.Seepage5forvaluationdetails,potential share price catalystsandkey downside risks.Innovent Biologics(1801 HK)Buy:Promising readout from IL-2/PD1 could supportout-license potential ◆◆◆ PREVIOUS TARGET(HKD)60.00UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+10.5%12/2025e171.7269.9 Free float60%BBG1801 HKRIC1801.HK12/2026e12/2027e0.320.461.250.290.421.1711.310.16.50.210.881.71119.043.70.00.84.6135.938.24.15.613.925.0048.0071.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary(CNYm)Revenue9,42212,12013,52716,665EBITDA-4843086142,163Depreciation & amortisation-272-304-337-370Operating profit/EBIT-75642771,794Net interest-68-74-74-74PBT-795798852,409HSBCQianhaiPBT-795798852,409Taxation-16-58-133-361Net profit-955217522,047HSBC Qianhainet profit-955217522,047Cash flow summary(CNYm)Cash flow from operations-4,3551,8392641,315Capex-550-550-550-550Cash flowfrom investment-550-550-550-550Dividends00-752-4,095Change in net debt3,176-1,289286-765FCF equity-4,9051,289-286765Balance sheet summary(CNYm)Intangible fixed assets1,2701,2701,2701,270Tangible fixed assets5,2804,5154,7284,908Current assets9,57711,22111,18612,503Cash & others7,7939,0828,7969,561Total assets17,54818,42718,60520,102Operating liabilities4,9631,9511,376826Gross debt3,5223,5223,5223,522Net debt-4,271-5,560-5,274-6,040Shareholders' funds12,43312,95413,70715,754Invested capital3,3705,9737,0128,293Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue51.828.611.623.2EBITDA99.3252.2Operating profit7398.2547.1PBT52.8172.1HSBC QianhaiEPS44.3172.1Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)2.92.62.12.2ROIC-27.80.13.619.9ROE-0.84.15.613.9ROA2.65.06.312.8EBITDA margin-5.12.54.513.0Operating profit margin-8.00.02.010.8EBITDA/net interest (x)4.18.329.1Net debt/equity-34.4-42.9-38.5-38.3Net debt/EBITDA (x)8.8-18.0-8.6-2.8CF from operations/net debtPer share data(CNY)EPS Rep (diluted)-0.060.320.461.25HSBC QianhaiEPS (diluted)-0.060.320.461.25DPS0.000.000.462.50Book value7.667.918.379.62Financials & valuati