新韩金融集团（055550 KS）：买入：是时候缩小与KB金融的差距了

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Seoul SecuritiesBranchView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(KRW)PREVIOUS TARGET(KRW)79,00079,000SHARE PRICE(KRW)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE56,600+39.6%(as of28 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(KRWb)28,065Free floatMarket cap (USDm)20,417BBG3m ADTV (USDm)41RICFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(KRW)Year to12/2024a12/2025eHSBC EPS8,83910,256HSBC EPS (prev)8,83910,249Change (%)0.00.1Consensus EPS9,27610,009PE (x)5.74.9Dividend yield (%)4.34.5P/NAV0.60.5ROE inc. gwill (%)8.18.752-WEEK PRICE(KRW)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesJaewoong Won*Analyst, Korea Financials & FintechThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,Seoul Securities Branchjaewoong.won@kr.hsbc.com+82 2 3706 8770* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnotregistered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesCommercial BanksKorea05/2411/24Target price: 79000High: 61400 Low: 43600 Current: 56600 ◆◆◆ 78%055550 KS055550.KS12/2026e12/2027e11,16012,44711,15412,5450.1-0.810,68411,4724.54.15.26.20.50.48.58.439000615008400005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eP&L summary(KRWbn)Net interest income11,40211,68111,86312,038Net fees/commissions3,2723,3263,6203,901Total income14,67415,00815,48315,939Operating expense6,1166,2296,4166,660Bad debt charge2,0992,0451,9491,744Other-4301218585HSBC PBT6,0296,8557,2037,620PBT6,0296,8557,2037,620Taxation1,4711,8221,9812,095Minorities and others-108-64-52-55Attributable profit4,4504,9695,1705,469HSBC attributable profit4,4504,9695,1705,469Balancesheet summary(KRWbn)Customer loans451,175463,409482,225498,332Total assets739,741768,834800,051832,537Customer deposits422,781427,204437,113445,922Total liabilities680,943706,944733,981762,109Ordinary equity56,05458,79562,76766,907HSBC ordinary equity56,05458,79562,76766,907Avg. interest earning assets478,742486,194498,603511,938Ratio, growth & per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eY-on-y % changeTotalincome3.02.33.22.9Operating expense3.71.83.03.8PBT1.113.75.15.8EPS3.816.08.811.5BP5.48.612.313.0Asset6.93.94.14.1Loan9.12.74.13.3IEA7.81.62.62.7Ratios (%)Cost/income ratio41.741.541.441.8Customer loans/deposits106.7108.5110.3111.8Per share data (KRW)EPS reported (diluted)8,83910,25611,16012,447HSBC EPS (diluted)8,83910,25611,16012,447DPS2,1602,2802,6303,120BP102,203111,033124,697140,900BP(including goodwill)102,203111,033124,697140,900Source: Company data, HSBC estimatesValuation dataYear toPE*PB*Dividend yield (%)Dividend payout ratio (%)* Based on HSBC EPS (diluted)Profitability & Capital adequacyYear toProfitability (%)ROEROANIM (group)Capital adequacy (%)BIS ratioTier1CET1NPL (S and below)Credit costSource: Company data, HSBC estimatesESGmetricsEnvironmental IndicatorsGHG emission intensityEnergy intensityCO2reduction policySocial IndicatorsEmployee costs as % of revenuesEmployee turnover (%)Diversity policySource: Company data, HSBC*GHG intensity and energy intensity are measuredin kg and kWhrespectivelyagainst revenuein USD ‘000sIssuer informationShare price(KRW)Target price(KRW)RIC(Equity)Bloomberg (Equity)Market cap(USDm)PricerelativeSource: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 28 May 2025Financials & valuation:Shinhan Financial Group Source: Company dataExhibit10: Shinhan FG’s quarterly non-interest income trendSource: Company dataExhibit12:ShinhanBank’s delinquencyratiotrendSource: Company data88379054302004006008001,0001,2001Q223Q221Q23(KRWbn)0.10%0.15%0.20%0.25%0.30%0.35%0.40%0.45%1Q151Q161Q171Q181Q191Q201Q211Q221Q231Q241Q25 Source: Company dataExhibit9: Shinhan FG’s quarterly netinterest income trendSource: Company dataExhibit11:Shinhan FG’s NPL ratiotrendSource: Company data2,4912,6082,7322,2002,3002,4002,5002,6002,7002,8002,9003,0001Q223Q22(KRWbn)0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1Q151Q161Q171Q181Q191Q201Q211Q221Q231Q241Q25 Source: Company data, HSBC estimatesExhibit16:Shinhan FG’s annual CCR ratioSource:Company data, HSBC estimates0.27%0.33%0.58%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%202120222023 Source: Company data,HSBC estimates Estimate changesWechangeournet incomeestimatesfor 2025e/2026e/2027e by+0.6%/+1.3%/+1.2%factoringlimited concerns on provision hikes of Shinhan FG.Exhibit19:Shinhan FG–EPS/BPS/Net Incomechanges(KRW)EPSPreviousCurrentChange (%)BPSPreviousCurrentChange (%)Net Income(Controlled, KRWbn)PreviousCurrentChange (%)Source:HSBC estimates 2025e2026e2027e10,24911,15412,54510,25611,16012,4470.1%0.1%-0.8%111,563126,002143,437111,033124,697140,900-0.5%-1.0%-1.8%4,9395,1065,4034,9695,1705,4690.6%1.3%1.2% Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company