Salesforce公司（美股代码：CRM）：买入：Agentforce和数据云是下一个增长动力

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(USD)337.00SHARE PRICE(USD)276.03(as of28 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(USDm)Market cap (USDm)3m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(USD)Year toHSBC EPSHSBC EPS (prev)Change (%)Consensus EPSPE (x)Dividend yield (%)EV/EBITDA (x)ROE (%)52-WEEK PRICE(USD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesStephen BerseyHead of US Technology ResearchHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.stephen.bersey@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 4153Abhishek Shukla*, CFASenior Analyst, TechnologyHSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, DIFCabhishek2.shukla@hsbc.com+971 4 5093343Govinder Kumar*Analyst, US Technology ResearchHSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, GrupoFinanciero HSBCgovinder.kumar@hsbc.com.mx+52 55 8551 6650* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesSoftwareUnited States05/24Target price: 337.00High: 367.87 Low: 218.01 Current: 276.03 01/2025a ◆◆◆ PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)411.00UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+22.1%264,844Free float264,844BBG1,828RIC01/2026e10.1911.2210.1911.260.010.0211.1627.10.324.316.411/24 Find out more97%CRM USCRM.N01/2027e01/2028e13.0115.2813.5115.94-0.4-3.7-4.112.5014.4624.621.218.10.30.30.321.519.915.817.218.418.7190.00290.00390.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to01/2025a01/2026e01/2027eProfit & loss summary(USDm)Revenue37,89541,47446,451EBITDA10,68211,80412,337Depreciation & amortisation-3,477-2,841-1,464Operating profit/EBIT7,2058,96310,873Net interest000PBT7,4389,16011,093HSBC PBT12,73114,14016,419Taxation-1,241-2,086-2,551Net profit6,1977,0748,541HSBC net profit9,93010,86512,561Cash flow summary(USDm)Cash flow from operations13,09213,36315,442Capex-658-754-839Cash flow from investment-3,163-2,935-2,729Dividends-767-789-772Change in net debt-831-5,367-8,511FCF equity12,43412,60914,603Balance sheet summary(USDm)Intangible fixed assets55,71155,31455,314Tangible fixed assets17,49016,94517,471Current assets29,72736,16145,473Cash & others14,03218,29625,494Total assets102,928108,419118,259Operating liabilities33,32236,16640,423Gross debt8,4337,3306,017Netdebt-5,599-10,966-19,477Shareholders' funds61,17364,92371,818Invested capital55,57453,95752,341Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to01/2025a01/2026e01/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue8.79.412.0EBITDA19.110.54.5Operating profit43.824.421.3PBT50.323.121.1HSBC EPS24.110.116.0Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.70.80.9ROIC10.912.615.8ROE16.417.218.4ROA6.16.77.5EBITDA margin28.228.526.6Operating profit margin19.021.623.4EBITDA/net interest (x)Net debt/equity-9.2-16.9-27.1Net debt/EBITDA (x)-0.5-0.9-1.6CF from operations/net debtPer share data(USD)EPS Rep (diluted)6.367.308.85HSBC EPS (diluted)10.1911.2213.01DPS0.800.800.80Book value62.7967.0474.40Financials & valuation:Salesforce Inc 1QFY26 results in-line with consensus,FY26 guidance raised◆RevenuewasUSD9,829m, +7.6% y-o-y and in-line with HSBC (USD9,864m) andconsensus (USD9,752m) estimates.◆Non-GAAP operating profitwasUSD3,172m, +8.3% y-o-y and below HSBC (USD3,331m)but in-line with consensus (USD3,180m) estimates.◆Non-GAAP operating marginwas32.27%, +0.21pp y-o-y andbelowHSBC (33.77%)but in-line withconsensus (32.6%) estimates.◆Non-GAAP net incomewasUSD2,499m, +3.8% y-o-y and below HSBC (USD2,590m) butin-line with consensus (USD2,494m) estimates.◆Non-GAAP EPSwasUSD2.58,+5.4% y-o-y and below HSBC (USD2.66) but in-line withconsensus (USD2.55) estimates.◆Current remainingperformance obligationsincreased11% y-o-y in constant currency terms,in-line with the growth in 4QFY25. The company guidedfor9% y-o-y constant currencycRPO growth for 2QFY26 and emphasised that “measured” sales performance over thepast few quarters could continue to adversely and materially impact cRPO growth.◆The company increased its FY26 revenue and non-GAAP EPSguidanceby 1-1.5%,largelydue to favourable FX moves. The new guidance is slightly ahead of consensus but in-linewith HSBC estimates.Salesforce results:actual vs estimates1Q26aHSBCevs HSBCeConsensusvs.Consensus1Q25y-o-y4Q259,8299,864-0.4%9,7520.8%9,1337.6%9,9937,8777,970-1.2%7,8480.4%7,3287.5%8,05880.1%80.8%-0.66pp80.5%-0.34pp80.2%-0.1pp80.6%3,1723,331-4.8%3,180-0.2%2,9288.3%3,30332.3%33.8%-1.5pp32.6%-0.33pp32.1%0.21pp33.1%-0.78pp2,4992,590-3.5%2,4940.2%2,4073.8%2,70725.4%26.3%-0.84pp25.6%-0.15pp26.4%-0.93pp27.1%-1.66pp2.582.66-3.2%2.551.0%2.445.4%2.78Salesforce results:actual vs guidance vs estimates___________1Q26a___________2Q26e new guidance vs pre-results estimatesFY26enew guidance vs pre-resultsestimatesActualConsensusPriorguidanceHSBCConsensus GuidanceHSBCConsensusNewguidanceguidance9,8299,7529,73510,07110,13110,13540,92740,79741,1503,1723,180NA3,5003,413NA14,07813,87813,99132.3%32.6%NA34.8%33.7%NA34.4%34.0%34.0%2.582.552.542.802.782.7711.2611.1711.30 3q-o-q-1.6%-2.2%-0.5pp-4.0%-7.7%-7.3%Old40,70013,83834.0%11.13 Agentforce and Datacloudarebeginning to deliverWe expec