通用电气维诺瓦（GEV）：攀登之路成果斐然，但顶峰空气愈发稀薄。下调评级至持有

2023A2024A2025E33,239.034,935.038,053.3807.02,035.03,418.9-2,228.52,933.50.00.036,917.8 2026E42,645.65,323.04,028.839,777.5 Julien Dumoulin-Smith * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2066 | jds@jefferies.comInFY28 we are+15%above ConsensusEBITDA, nearly +40% vs guidance, and +50%vs Street FCF: despite this rosy forecast, wesee little room for further positive surprisesand multiple re-rating in the near-term.GEV (Blue Left) and Bitcoin Index (Red Right).GEVBitcoinSource: Bloomberg The Long View: GE VernovaInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferWe see accelerating demand for power infrastructure and a structural pruningof a challenged Offshore Wind business driving EBITDA and FCF margins wellabove the Street as GE Vernova completes its turnaround amid structurallyconstructive conditions. The balance sheet boost from this inflection will onlyadd to flexibility to return to being a dividend payer and add to share repofirepower. Issues on Offshore quality only marginally threaten the inflectiongiven the planned de-emphasis of this business. Still, we see these attributesas mostly reflected in the current premium valuation.Base Case,$517, +7%We underwrite EBITDA acceleration above theStreetacross all three segments as Power&Electrification win on an accelerating utilityinvestmentcycle and Wind exits unprofitablebusinesses.Our PT is based on a blendedapproach considering FCF yield, SotP EBITDA, anda DCF methodology.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues:1. Climate Change and Decarbonization:GEV's technology is pivotal in generating around 30% of theworld's electricity, making it crucial to advance decarbonization efforts and reduce greenhouse gasemissions in the energy sector.2. Product Safety and Quality:GEV emphasizes the importance of safety and quality in its product designand manufacturing processes.Company Target:Achieve carbon neutrality across Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030.Questions to Management:1) Gas turbine services & equipment sales margin inflation as sales pick up amid a tight supply backdrop.How high can margins peak given backlogs are still emerging?2) How should we think about cost of offshore inspections, repairs, and litigation alongside the timing ofcost-out in Off-shore Wind?3) How should we think about the contribution from the Prolec JV in out-years given the current tailwindsto EBITDA should not be permanent?Please see important disclosure information on pages 20 - 26 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$593, +22%A greater global demand for compute capacitycouldElectrification,making it a more meaningfulcontributorto 2028 EBITDA and driving ahigher multiple alongside upside to our numbers.OurUpside PT is based on a SotP EBITDAmethodology. See potential for sizable marginexpansion through the cycle, in particular aroundgas OEM and services. We see several yearsprior to reaching peak orders and expect ongoingmargin expansion aiding positive revisions still. accelerategrowth Downside Scenario,$378, -22%Furtherliability issues beyond management'simmediate control could drive a slower turnaroundthan we underwrite in Wind. We also note thattechnologyfirms at the heart of demand forcompute could choose to pause or lower capitalexpenditure and cause us to have overlooked thepace of electrification demand. Our downside PT isbased on a SotP EBITDA methodology. See risks ofrapid supply chain expansion in electrification aswell as challenges to onshore recovery as principalconcerns.CatalystsDatacentercolocationannouncementsUtilityRFP activity ramps in 2H25 for Gasprocurement resulting in awards.Offshore wind construction windows in Spring2025Federal energy legislationIRA & TCJA Extension: risks to Wind biz. inPowerand withnaturalgas2 When is the right time to walk away? Sentiment is extraordinarilyhighThematically, it is difficult to compare current gas market sentiment with that of any time historically:all three turbine OEMs (GEV, Mitsubishi, and Siemens) have remarked on extension of backlogvisibility and slot reservations well into the 2027-2028 time frame, with incremental one-offorder activity even further beyond that point. This has been driven by data center demand andelectrification trends globally. Proposed dismantling of renewable-supportive tax credits posited byrecently proposed US legislation, steadying in long-term load forecasts following disruption causedby DeepSeek in January, and continued gas-supportive commentary and proposals from investor-owned utilities discussing resource adequacy in the 1Q25 have further fueled favorable sentimentfor gas a preferred generation source. We have seen GEV's stock outperform the S&P 500 by 42%on a YTD basis, largely concentrated to the last 45 days or so. The stock has more than tripled sinceIPO in 1H24. We understand there are not many other obvious liquid, large-cap energy-industrialswith similarly robust cyclical demand tailwinds. The evident momentum im