诺信（NDSN）：收益回顾：ATS复苏，第三季度前景明朗

2024A2025E2026E2,689.92,806.12,982.5841.3883.0957.8-9.9110.739.749.9911.18 2027E3,094.71,004.311.2811.87 Saree Boroditsky, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-2280 | sboroditsky@jefferies.comJames Ko * | Equity Associate+1 (312) 588-5155 | jko@jefferies.com The Long View: NordsonInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferNordson is a high-quality industrial compounder with a stable recurringrevenue profile. The company has generated 4% average top-line growth (~3%organic on average) over the past five years, leading to ~9% average annualEPS growth, given its strong margin profile and operating leverage, which wesee as sustainable over the long term, given its strong market position andfocus on mission-critical products.Base Case,$230, +10%•We are modeling organic growth up ~5% in2026.•Our $230 price target is based on ~21x our 2026EPS estimate.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):1) Product Design & Lifecycle Management.NDSN delivers products that driveresource efficiency and reduce waste through precision dispensing capabilities.2) Energy Management.Nordson is committed to operating efficiently to minimizing the environmental footprint by preservingresources, reducing consumption, and procuring and generating clean electricity for operations.3)Employee Health & Safety.NDSN introduced its Journey to Zero principle in 2020, founded on the beliefthat all incidents are preventable through continuous improvement.Target(s):1)50% reduction in net Scope 1 and 2 CO2scope 1 and 2 CO2emissions by 2050.3) Procure 70% of electricity from renewable sources by 2050.Qs to Mgmt: 1)Have you seen increased engagement from customers on the ESG front?2)Doesimproving the sustainability of your products increase your competitiveness?3)How are you addressingsustainability alongside other trends such as digitization and automation in your industry?Linkto ESG Industrial Sector FrameworkPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$370, +77%•Nordson generates~13%growth in 2026from a combination of organic growth andacquisitions, with ~45% incremental margins.•Our $370 price target is based on 30x our 2026EPS estimate of ~$12.50.emissions by 2030 vs. 2021.2)Achieve net-zero Downside Scenario,$140, -33%•End-market growth decelerates with salesdeclining ~10% in 2026.•Our $140 price target is based on 18x our 2026EPS estimate of ~$8.00.CatalystsTo the Upside:•Industrial end-market demand is stronger thananticipated driving higher sales in coatings•Factory investments drive higher equipmentdemand•Capital deployment via share repurchases andacquisitionsTo the Downside:•Demand in industrial markets is weak with abroad industrial recession•Consumers cut back on spending, leading tolower parts and equipment demand•Semi and electronic markets experienceweaker-than-expected order rates 2 Exhibit 1 - Income Statement.($ in Millions, except per share values)Industrial Precision Solutions (IPS)Medical and Fluid Solutions (MFS)Advanced Technology Solutions (ATS)Sales% acquisitions% currency% organic% growthCost of Goods SoldGross Profit% MarginSelling & Admin ExpensesOperating Income% Margin% Incremental MarginIndustrial Precision Solutions (IPS)Medical and Fluid Solutions (MFS)Advanced Technology Solutions (ATS)Corporate and OtherOperating IncomeEBITDA% MarginInterest ExpenseInterest & Investment IncomeOther Expense, netPre-tax IncomeTaxesNet IncomeAmortizationNet Income (excl. Amort.)EPS% GrowthSource: Jefferies and Company DataExhibit 2 - Cash Flow Statement.Net IncomeDepreciationAmortizationNon-cash Share-based CompensationChange in Operating Assets & LiabilitiesOtherOperating Cash FlowCapexFree Cash FlowFCF ConversionProceeds from the Sale of PP&EAcquisitionsOtherInvesting Cash FlowProceeds (Repayments) of DebtStock RepurchasesDividendsOtherFinancing Cash FlowEffect of exchange rate changes on cashNet change in cash and equivalentsSource: Jefferies and Company DataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 3 - Balance Sheet.AssetsCash and Cash EquivalentsAccounts ReceivableInventoriesOther Current AssetsTotal Current AssetsNet PP&EGoodwillIntangible AssetsDeferred TaxesOther AssetsTotal AssetsCurrent Maturity of LT DebtCurrent Obligations Under Capital LeasesAccounts PayableCustomer Advanced PaymentsAccrued Expenses and OtherTotal Current LiabilitiesLong-term DebtDeferred Income TaxesPension & Postretirement ObligationsOther LiabilitiesTotal LiabilitiesShareholders' equityTotal Liabilities & S/H EquitySource: Jefferies and Company DataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionNordsonNordson engineers, manufactures, and markets di