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Restricted - External Max Kitson+44 (0) 20 3134 1456max.kitson@barclays.comBarclays, UKRohan Khanna+44 (0) 20 7773 0533rohan.khanna1@barclays.comBarclays, UKAlessandro Di Spirito+44 (0) 20 3555 0515alessandro.dispirito@barclays.comBarclays, UKPratham Hukmat Kingar+91 (0) 22 6175 2018prathamhukmat.kingar@barclays.comBarclays, UK FIGURE 1. EUR rates were little changed on the week although theFIGURE 2. EUR front-end longs are back to being the asymmetry tradeawaiting a fresh negative catalyst-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25ERSOFRSFIM5Z5 spreadSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Researchissuance, France, Spain, Germany and Austria will hold auctions; elsewhere, the UK and Japanboth have long-end auctions scheduled.ECB: kickingoffsummer with a cutA cut in the depo rate from 2.25% to 2.0% appears all but certain at next week's ECB meeting,which will also include the unveiling of a new set ofstaffforecasts (see here for our economists'preview). With the depo rate already within the ECB's nominal neutral range (1.75-2.25%), focusis nowshiftingto the possibility of a move into modestly accommodative territory, with Lagardehaving opened the door to this conversation at the April meeting (by emphasizing the shocksfacing the euro area economy, and the need for "agility" in response).In terms of more recent Governing Council commentary, Executive Board member Schnabel hasstaked out her opposition to further rate cuts, arguing that "the appropriate course of action is tokeep rates close to where they are today... over the medium term, risks to euro area inflation arelikely tilted to the upside, reflecting both the increase in fiscal spending and the risks of renewedcost-push shocks fromtariffspropagating through global value chains."Arch-hawk Holzmann hasvoiced a similar stance, arguing: "Moving [interest rates] further south would be more risky thanstaying where we are and waiting until September."In contrast to Schnabel and Holzmann, most other GC members have sounded moreconstructive tones on prospects for further rates cuts. GC member Wunsch — who in the pasthas typically leaned to the hawkish side — argued earlier in the month that: "If I look at theeconomy — the shocks we are confronted with and the uncertainty on growth — it might warrantto be mildly supportive," with rates consequently going "slightly below" 2%. GC member Kazaksvoiced a similar attitude to Wunsch, arguing that "there may still be a couple of reductions in thedeposit rate this year."Nonetheless, there appears to be little momentum on the Governing Council for a push intodeeply accommodative territory. To this point, Chief Economist Lane stated in a recentinterview that: "For the sake of discussion, say rates below 1.5 per cent are clearlyaccommodative. Going there would only be appropriate in the event of more substantial downsiderisks to inflation, or a more significant slowdown in the economy. I do not see that at the moment."There also appears to be limited impetus to cut rates at the July meeting, in the absence offresh negative shocks or downside data surprises. To this point Stournaras — typically one of 2 FIGURE 3. Summary of recent ECB Governing Council commentaryComments"We are, by and large, within the baseline scenario...if the baseline scenario holds, then I think we are relativelyclose to the terminal rate already...A couple of more cuts may be (possible), but the important thing is to see wherethe trade talk and the trade story take us, and then of course we'll act."“We need to maintain a steady hand for now...We can leave rates broadly at the level they are at now and areconfident that we can also maintain price stability in this way.”“We are at the point of balance where there’d need to be clear reasons to go significantly beyond where we are rightnow to further stimulate the economy - and I think it’s still an issue for discussion whether those reasons are goodenough today.”“We’re still awaiting the latest projections...Therefore, I can’t rule out another rate cut in June, but I also can’tconfirm it because we must also consider the medium term.”“You may want to support the economy a little bit to avoid thataftertwo years of low growth, animal spirits wouldjust be pulled down and the recovery would be questioned...This isn’t about supporting the economy for supportingthe economy, but for re-anchoring inflation at 2% and to avoid deflation. We may need to create some confidence,to play it safe.”“In March, we said very clearly that the risks to growth were tilted to the downside...And now I can assure you thatmany of the risks that we identified in that moment of time have become a reality.”"Afterseven interest rate cuts, our deposit rate stands at 2.25%, a level that can certainly no longer be described asrestrictive…Given the continuing high level of uncertainty, we should therefore remain cautious in monetarypolicy.""I believe we will cut interest rates one more time in June and then I