雷曼酒店集团（RHP）：显而易见的内部和外部增长；与Ryman Hospitality Properties会议的最新情况

2024A2025E-2,350.02,434.0-756.0787.07.237.232,339.22,489.0 2026E2,583.0837.07.832,748.7 David Katz * | Equity Analyst(212) 323-3355 | dkatz@jefferies.comRita Chen * | Equity Associate(212) 336-6693 | rita.chen@jefferies.comAnthony Berni, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (646) 805-5496 (office) | aberni@jefferies.comRyan McGeary * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8968 | rmcgeary@jefferies.com The Long View: Ryman HospitalityInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Assets present high barriers to competition•Greater earnings visibility and stability through the unique group positioning•Favorable secular trends with demand momentum•Differentiated OEG business for further growth with strategic implications•JW Marriott Desert Ridge acquisition to close by Q2/3 in 2025Base Case,$115, +19%•FY25 RevPAR growth of~2.5%YoY withmoderate acceleration into 2026•FY25/26 TRevPAR growth of ~2% YoY•Group demand recovers with favorable comps,balanced by moderating leisure travel•OEG completes renovations and contributes toearnings growth•The interest rate environment incrementallyimproves,which supports the transactionmarket•Price Target $115: 13X Lodging EBITDA, 15XEntertainment EBITDA, 13X AFFO, 14X FCFEmultiples, and a 5-year DCFSustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):1) Environmental Impacts -Responsible for ensuring assets are green andsustainable and produce minimal carbon and waste.2) Supply Chain Mgmt -Partnering with ESG-positive managers and vendors, using sustainable building materials, FF&E, and supplies.3)EmployeeEngagement, Diversity, and Inclusion -Ensuring a gender and ethnically-diverse team with proper'unconscious bias' training.Company Target(s):1)Reductions in total water and electricity consumption per square foot vs. 2019baselines. 2) Reduction in total hotel carbon emission intensity by 2025. 3) Interview goals for female andminority candidates for open management positions.Qs to Mgmt:1)What is the incremental cost (if any) associated with sourcing supplies responsibly, andthe impact on margins?2)What is the cost associated with converting assets to be eco-friendly, and howdoes it increase NAV?3)What recruiting initiatives are in place to ensure the representation of diversecandidates?Please see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$155, +61%•FY24-26 RevPAR growth and Total RevPARgrowth in the MSDs•Group recovers with strong pricing,anddomestic leisure demand improves•OEG’s new projects with better performance•Transaction market opens supported by ratecuts•Price Target $155: Base case + 25% EBITDA,AFFO, FCF growth, and +2x multiple premiums Risk/Reward - 12 Month View16015014013012011010090807020252024Downside Scenario,$80, -17%•FY24-26 RevPAR decline and Total RevPARgrowth below LSD•Group recovers,yet faces greater pricingsensitivity, coupled with leisure deceleration•OEG underperforms•The transaction market is slow to recoverdespite an improving interest rate environment•Price Target $80: Base case + 25% EBITDA,AFFO, FCF decline, and +2x multiple discountsCatalysts•Accretive acquisition opportunities in hospitalitywith Gaylord Pacific under development•Further dispositions of the remaining interest inOEG at accretive multiples•Accelerated capital returns 2 Chart 1 - RHP Income Statement.($ in MM, except per share data)RevenuesRoomsFood and beverageOther hotel revenueEntertainmentTotal RevenuesYOY % growthOperating expensesRoomsFood and beverageOther hotel expensesManagement feesTotal hotel operating expensesEntertainmentCorporatePreopening costsGain (loss) on sale of assetsDepreciation and anortizationTotal operating expensesOperating incomeInterest expense, net of amounts capitalizedInterest incomeLoss on extinguishment of debtGain (Loss) from unconsolidated JVsOther gains and (losses), netPretax income(Provision) benefit for income taxesTax rateIncome from continuing operationsIncome from discontinuing operationsNet incomeNet Loss attributable to noncontrolling interest in conslidated JVsNet Loss attributable to noncontrolling interest in Operating PartnershipNet income available to common stockholdersDiluted EPS available for common stockholdersDiluted Wtd Avg. Shares3M Avg. Share PricesConsolidated Adj. EBITDA ReconciliationNet IncomeInterest expense, netProvision for income taxesDepreciation & amortizationGain on sale of assetsPro rate EBITDAre from unconsolidated joint venturesEBITDAreAdjusted EBITDAreAjudsted EBITDAre of noncontrolling interest in conslidated joined ventureAdjusted EBITDAre, excluding NCI in conslidated JVAdj. EBITDA MarginAdj. EBITDA YoY GrowthAFFO ReconciliationNet IncomeNoncontrolling interest in consolidated joint ventureNet income available to common stockholders and unit holdersDepreciation & amortizationAdjustments for noncontrolling interestPro rata adjustments from joint venturesFFO Available to common stockholders and unit holdersAdjusted F