赛尔修斯（CELH）：新数据已出-电话会议后的模型更新

2025E2,194.62,181.9412.9412.5 2026E2,739.83,041.32,667.72,937.8569.4543.9 2027E637.6618.4 Kaumil Gajrawala * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8937 | kgajrawala@jefferies.comKeith Devas * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8233 | kdevas@jefferies.comKaitlyn Korich, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8363 | kkorich@jefferies.comNoah Erni * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 708-2708 | nerni@jefferies.comKontee Siravongtanawadi * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8786 | ksiravongtanawadi@jefferies.com The Long View: CelsiusInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Celsius is a disruptive brand with a long runway for growth in the fast-growing energy+ category•Improved distribution is a game changer — Celsius has the potential to gainsubstantial market share and drive incremental growth through foodservice•International is in the early days, and the opportunity is sizable•Celsius'"Live Fit"lifestyle branding has the strength to extend beyond itsenergy offering•Ample scope for margin expansion as operating leverage kicks inBase Case,$45, +29%•Increasing velocity, the successful integrationof Alani Nu and distribution gains result in salesincreasing at 31% (3Yr CAGR) between '24-'27E•EBIT margins improve to ~19% by '27, fueled byoperating leverage and productivity efficiencies•$45 price target: based on 21.5x EV/EBITDAmultiple on $569m '26E EBITDASustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Water and wastewater management: As a business dependent on waterfor production, the company should aim to minimize its water use, water consumption, wastewatergeneration, and other impacts of operations on water resources to preserve the health of not only thecommunities they serve, but those in which they operate as well.2) GHG Emission:Curbing greenhousegas emissions during production has become an important topic across CPG, with most companiescalling out their efforts to move toward net-zero emissions. Furthermore, consumers increasingly lookfor products that are made sustainably, which has led CPG companies to call out sustainable practiceson packaging to increase sales.Company Target(s):NAQs to Mgmt: 1)How do you ensure executive compensation aligns with shareholder interests?2)Whatcost savings and related margin effects do you predict on improved packaging initiatives such as utilizingmore sustainable inputs?3)How has ESG shaped the evolution of consumer preferences and how isCELH innovating to meet those needs?Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View10090807060504030201020252024•EBIT margins expand to ~20% on account ofa higher degree of operating leverage and agreater than anticipated synergies•550bps of sales upside in '25-'26 driven bymarket share gains and faster-than-expectedUS category growth for Celsius/Alani Nu brands•$59 price target:based on 25x EV/EBITDAmultiple on $634m '26E EBITDADownside Scenario,$20, -43%•-750bps of sales growth downside in '25-'26drivenby higher competition weighing onCelsius' and Alani Nu sales, and slower thanexpected international rollout•-500bps EBIT downside in'25-'26 drivenbyhigher marketing expenses and salesdeleverage•$20 price target:based on 15x EV/EBITDAmultiple on $368m '26E EBITDACatalysts•Pepsi increases its stake or acquires theremaining shares of the company•Expansion beyond energy via innovation or M&A Upside Scenario,$59, +69% 2 Chart 1 - CELH Valuation ($MM, except per share data).Current Price - $35EPS% y/yEBITDA% y/yRevenue% y/yEBIT% marginTax RateNOPATCapex% of salesDepreciation% y/yChange in NOWCFree Cash Flow% y/ySource: Jefferies estimates, Company dataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Chart 2 - Bear and Bull Case Scenarios ($MM, except per share data).Bear ScenarioRevenue% y/yDiff vs. base caseEBIT% marginD&A% of salesSBC% of salesEBITDA% y/y2026 EBITDATarget MultipleEnterprise ValueNet DebtEquity ValuePrice% downside to Base Case% downside to Current PriceSource: Jefferies estimates, Company dataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Chart 3 - CELH Income Statement ($MM, except per share data).Income StatementNet SalesCost of Goods SoldGross ProfitGross MarginBp y/yOperating ExpensesSelling and Marketing Expense% of salesBp y/yGeneral and Administrative% of salesBp y/yTotal SG&A% of salesOperating Income (Loss)Operating MarginBp y/yOther Income (expense)Interest Income% of cashInterest Expense% of DebtOther incomeIncome before taxesIncome taxesTax rateNet Income Attributable to Celsius Holdings, Ltd.(8)Preferred Stock DividendAdj. Net Income Available to Common Shareholders(9)Basic EPSAdj. Diluted EPS (JEF)% y/yAdj. Diluted EPS (CELH)% y/yBasic shares outstandi