季风是积极因素，但近期有小问题

Mahesh Nandurkar * | Equity Analyst91 224224 6120 | mnandurkar@jefferies.comAbhinav Sinha * | Equity Analyst91 22 4224 6121 | abhinav.sinha@jefferies.comPriyank Shah * | Equity Associate+91 22 4224 6142 | pshah9@jefferies.comSTRATEGY NOTEExhibit 1 - Southwest monsoon rainfall trend1-11-1490-212Southwest monsoon rainfall % above / (below) LPA(%)Source: IMD, Jefferies. Period of June-Sept is considered asmonsoon season . Favourable monsoon forecasted - favourable for agri, but may weigh on power demandExhibit 2 - India real agri GVA growth trend.90536-2024681012FY04FY05FY06FY07(%, YoY)Source: MoSPI, JefferiesExhibit 3 - Surplus rainfall may weigh on power demand.1-11-1492679-25-20-15-10-5051015FY04FY05FY06FY07Southwest monsoon rainfall % above / (below) LPA(%, YoY)Source: IMD, Ministry of Power, JefferiesExhibit 4 - Power demand composition.Commercial8%Traction (Railways)2%Source: Ministry of Power, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. In years of rainfall surplus of more than 5%,agri GVA grows by avg. 6% YoY (+2ppt abovelong term avg.)Stronger monsoon years see lower powerdemand usuallyAgricultureforms 17%of total powerdemand in India2 Rural indicators showing uptick with inflation moving downwardsExhibit 5 - Currency in circulation.024681012May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23(% YoY)Source: RBI, JefferiesExhibit 6 - Average wage rate trend in rural India.2345678910Feb-19May-19Aug-19Nov-19Feb-20(%, YoY)Source: Ministry of Labour, JefferiesExhibit 7 - Rural CPI inflation trend.23456789Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23(%, YoY)Source: MoSPI, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. CiC grew by 7.2% YoY in May'25, near a 2-yr highRural wages growth trending at 6% YoYRural inflation has dropped by 4ppt from itspeak in Oct'24 to 2.9% YoY in Apr'253 MSP hikes look moderate in Paddy but healthy for other cropsExhibit 8 - Hike in MSP of Paddy (rice) crop (% YoY).02221105101520253035FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07(%)Source: Government of India, JefferiesExhibit 9 - MSP increase of various Kharif crops.CropPaddy (Common)Paddy (Grade A)Jowar (Hybrid)Jowar (Maldandi)BajraRagiMaizeTur (Arhar)MoongUradGroundnutSunflower SeedSoybeanSesamumNigerseedCotton (Medium Staple)Cotton (Long Staple)* figures in Rs/QuintalSource: Government of India, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. MSP hiked by 3% for paddy, close to lowestin 19yrsMSP hike for most crops (ex-paddy, moong)healthy in range of 5-9%4 Exhibit 10 - Jefferies India Model Portfolio*.Stock/SectorLending FinancialsAxis BankICICI BankHDFC BankSBICholamandalam FinNon-lending FinancialsITInfosysCoforgeEnergyRILBharat Petroleum CorporationTelecomBharti AirtelConsumer StaplesGodrej ConsumerITCConsumer DiscretionaryVishal Mega MartCrompton ConsumerIndigoEicher MotorsM&MTVS MotorsMaterialsUltratech CementAmbuja CementTata SteelJindal StainlessHealthcareMax HealthcareSun PharmaMankind PharmaIndustrialsSiemens (Unlisted Stub)Bharat ElectronicsAmberGMR AirportsPower/UtilitiesNTPCJSW EnergyReal EstateMacrotech DevelopersTotalSource: MSCI, Jefferies, * Benchmark weight based on MSCI IndiaPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company Valuation/RisksFor Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300.Analyst Certification:I, Mahesh Nandurkar, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Abhinav Sinha, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Priyank Shah, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:Mahesh Nandurkar is employed by Jefferies India Priv