碳定价监测：2025年5月

Restricted - External Jordan Isvy(i)+44 (0) 20 7773 1733jordan.isvy@barclays.comBarclays, UKMaggie O'Neal(iii)+ 44 (0) 20 7773 6924maggie.oneal@barclays.comBarclays, UK 3 June 2025 should provide more clarity on environmental regulation going forward for thismarket (Figure 11).North America: The Western Climate Initiative (WCI) carried out its Q2 auction on 21 May.Allowances cleared at $25.87/tonne, a 12% decline relative to Q1. The auction failed to sell outfor the first time since 2021 as regulatory uncertainty and delays to market reform translate intobearish sentiment. This was compounded by the signing of a federal level executive order on 8April (Protecting American Energy From State Overreach) which specifically cites the Californiacap-and-trade market, although the extent to which the federal government can influencestate-level carbon markets remains unclear.Chart of the monthOn 19 May, the UK announced the agreement of a deal with the EU that would see closercollaboration with the bloc. This announcement referenced an intention to enter negotiationsto link the EU and UK ETS in order to remove trade frictions associated with the EU CBAM,although precise timelines on a potential linkage were not disclosed. The price of UKAs jumped13% in the two trading days following news emerging of a potential agreement (SSE / Drax /Centrica: UK-EU ETS deal leads to higher UK power prices, 20 May 2025). This means that EUAsare now only trading at a $11 premium to UKAs, the lowest premium in over a year.FIGURE 1. The price of allowances on the UK ETS ticked up 13% in the two trading days following newsemerging of a potential linkage with the EU ETSPrice and volumes here cover the nearest-December EUA futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Data as ofend May 2025.Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchAll data in this report are based on carbon allowance trading price and volume data from LSEGData & Analytics. Data are as of end-May. For information and definitions for each market,please see the Methodology and source section at the end of the report. 2 Compliance carbon markets this monthFIGURE 3. Prices on major compliance carbon markets, May 2025FIGURE 4. Percentage change in prices on major compliance carbonmarkets, May 2025-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%UK ETS% changein price, month-on-monthClose of day trading prices. Data as of end May 2025.Data as of end May 2025. We exclude WCI, RGGI and Washington as auctions arecarried out quarterly.Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays ResearchCarbon market news flow•African Development Bank to launch carbon credits support facility (Reuters, 29 May 2025)•Investors pile into rocks to absorb carbon emissions (Financial Times, 25 May 2025)•EU Lawmakers Agree to Exempt 90% of Companies from CBAM Import Carbon Tax (ESGToday, 22 May 2025)•EU and UK agree landmark deal linking Emissions Trading Schemes (edie, 19th May 2025)Cross-regionCompliance carbon markets in 2025FIGURE 2. Prices on major compliance carbon markets, 2025020406080100Jan-25Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25Price ($/tonne)EU ETSUK ETSRGGIWCIClose of day trading prices, with the exception of RGGI, Washington and WCI for which last quarterly action price is taken.Data as of end May 2025Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research EU ETSSouth Korea ETSChina ETSSouth Korea ETSChina ETSWashington Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research3 June 2025 Major compliance markets ranked by latest priceFIGURE 5. Latest prices on major compliance carbon marketsWe take the latest price for each market, which may occur atdifferentpoints in times depending on the frequency andmode of trading. Data as of end May 2025.Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays ResearchMajor compliance markets ranked by volume tradedFIGURE 6. Total volumes traded on major compliance carbon markets, May 20250500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,000China ETSSouth Korea ETSEU ETSMonthly volumes traded (tonnes)Data calculated as average daily closing volumes over May. WCI, RGGI and Washington omitted as no auctions were carriedout this month. Data as of end May 2025.Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research UK ETS Major compliance markets ranked by revenue generatedFIGURE 7. Total revenue generated on major compliance carbon markets, May 2025Monthly revenue calculated by multiplying daily closing prices and volumes across the month. WCI, RGGI and Washingtonomitted as no auctions were carried out this month. Data as of end May 2025.Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays ResearchEuropeEU ETSFIGURE 8. Price and volume of allowances traded on EU ETS020406080100120Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24PriceVolumePrice ($/tonne)Volume (tonnes traded)Price and volumes here cover the nearest-December EUA futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Data as ofend May 2025.Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research