吉利德科学公司（GILD US）：持有：数据支持Trodelvy用于一线乳腺癌治疗

Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsMAINTAIN HOLDTARGET PRICE(USD)93.00SHARE PRICE(USD)110.08(as of30 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(USDm)136,932Market cap (USDm)136,9323m ADTV (USDm)1,051FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(USD)Year to12/2024aHSBC EPS4.62HSBC EPS (prev)4.62Change (%)0.0Consensus EPS4.41PE (x)23.8Dividend yield (%)2.8EV/EBITDA (x)17.1ROE (%)27.552-WEEK PRICE(USD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesMorten Herholdt*Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Bank plcmorten.herholdt@hsbc.com+ 44 20 7992 4082Rajesh Kumar*Head, European Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Bank plcrajesh4kumar@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 1629Yifeng Liu*Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Bank plcyifeng.liu@hsbc.com+44 20 7 9919355* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesBiotechnologyUnited States05/2411/24Target price: 93.00High: 117.41 Low: 63.15 Current: 110.08 ◆◆◆ PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)93.00UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE-15.5%Free floatBBGRIC12/2025e8.088.080.07.9613.63.810.948.3 Find out more100%GILD USGILD.OQ12/2026e12/2027e8.368.918.368.910.00.08.449.0013.212.44.44.810.79.642.438.756.0093.00130.0005/25 2FinancialstatementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary(USDm)Revenue28,75429,45130,15931,463EBITDA9,00513,60913,25714,030Depreciation & amortisation-485-384466443Operating profit/EBIT8,52013,22613,72214,473Net interest-977-980-950-853PBT6919,90911,37812,325HSBC PBT7,82212,34412,77313,620Taxation-211-1,289-1,351-1,450Net profit4818,67210,07910,927HSBC net profit5,79510,17110,52311,218Cash flow summary(USDm)Cash flow from operations10,82811,47912,90113,855Capex-523-527-558-591Cash flow from investment-3,449-527-558-591Dividends-3,918-5,203-6,048-6,556Change in net debt-2,182-5,749-6,296-6,709FCF equity10,30510,95212,34313,265Balance sheet summary(USDm)Intangible fixed assets28,26225,88423,51421,144Tangible fixed assets11,56011,70411,85812,022Current assets19,17323,10127,57732,594Cash & others9,99113,77018,09622,835Totalassets58,99560,68962,94965,760Operating liabilities13,03813,28513,53613,998Gross debt26,71124,74122,77120,801Net debt16,72010,9714,675-2,034Shareholders' funds19,33022,79926,83031,201Invested capital35,96633,63431,31828,928Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027ey-o-y % changeRevenue6.02.42.44.3EBITDA-16.251.1-2.65.8Operating profit-18.755.23.85.5PBT-89.91334.014.88.3HSBC EPS-31.375.03.56.6Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.80.80.91.0ROIC15.733.134.939.8ROE27.548.342.438.7ROA1.915.817.618.1EBITDA margin31.346.244.044.6Operating profit margin29.644.945.546.0EBITDA/net interest (x)9.213.914.016.4Net debt/equity86.948.417.5-6.6Net debt/EBITDA (x)1.90.80.4-0.1CF from operations/net debt64.8104.6276.0-Per share data(USD)EPS Rep (diluted)0.386.898.018.68HSBC EPS (diluted)4.628.088.368.91DPS3.084.174.855.26Book value15.5018.2821.5225.02Financials & valuation:Gilead Sciences Inc Valuation and risksValuationMethodology:APV methodology.Assumptions:We derive our target price of USD93.00 fromusing an APVanalysis.Itis based on a WACC of 7.6%, with anRFR of 3.75%,anERPof 4.25%,abiopharma sector premium of 1.00%,anESG premium of1.00% and a beta of 0.70 (all unchanged). Our target price of USD93.00implies downside of15.5%. Wereiterate our Hold rating,as,operationally,Gilead is doing well as one of the few companies where expectations forsalesaregoing up and costsarecoming down. Importantly, the variouscombinations of Lenacapavir and Biktarvy might just stave off the cliff whenBiktarvy's patent protection goes, which is not well modelled. While thefunding of HIV is being looked at bygovernment payers, and we havesome concerns about the size of the PrEP market;PrEP remains anear-and medium-termgrowth driver and Gilead has recaptured the lead here.Lastly,with all the IP in the US, there may be less risk from tariffs. Risks to our viewDownside risks:1)Biktarvy is chosen for IRAnegotiation withanegative impact on sales prior topatent expiry;2)the company fails toreplicate itscurrent market position in long-acting treatment andprevention;3)the market further discounts the steeppatent cliff early next decade; and4)in search forgrowth the company embarks on expensive or higherrisk M&A that the market dislikes.Upside risks:1)if Gilead can be first with an HIVvaccine,it might retain its market leadership; 2)afaster shift from virology to oncology as value driverwould trigger a rerating; 3)owning the only approvedCOVID-19 treatment in hospitals leaves upside undera new pandemic; 4)expansion of PrEP wouldenlarge addressable market;and5)if Trodelvy worksin lung cancer,more R&D is needed,but the potentialgoes up materially 3 4Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)w