吉利德科学（GILD）：暴露前预防（PrEP）调查显示如果Len药物很快获批，患者似乎看好改用该药物

Michael J. Yee * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1535 | michael.yee@jefferies.comDina Elmonshed * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8388 | delmonshed@jefferies.comKyle Yang, CFA * | Equity Associate(212) 284-2260 | kyle.yang@jefferies.comMatthew Hagood * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8293 | mhagood@jefferies.comMadeleine Lee * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8733 | mlee6@jefferies.com$102.50^$130.00 | +27%$119.96 - $62.07FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD)98.8% | 1,011.67$129.0B^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwiseJEF vs CONS20252026-1%NA+1%NAQ4FY2.108.02Equity ResearchMay 19, 2025 2023A2024A2025E2026E28,754.028,542.029,149.8--28,722.0--7.986.724.628.028.42 -- Jenna Li * | Equity Associate(332) 236-6891 | jli9@jefferies.com Exhibit 1 - 95% of people currently on PrEP would want to swap to Lenacapavir for Q6M injections.Source: Company Reports, Jefferies.Market expansion to people not yet on PrEP is all upside? Among those not currently on PrEP(n=345), ~50% of them are interested in considering PrEP.This is a good data point given (1) only~30% of ppl in the US targeted for PrEP are actually on it and (2) GILD believes the PrEP marketcan grow to 1M by ~mid-2030 (currently ~400K on pills). We note Descovy grew 16% YY in Q1,and beat consensus as awareness is growing.Exhibit 2 - 95% of those interested in LEN would also swap within 6-12 months of approval.Source: Jefferies Research.Please see important disclosure information on pages 39 - 44 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. The Long View: Gilead SciencesInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•In our view, GILD is undemanding at 12x and undervalued given potentialLSD rev, DD earnings growth & 3-4% div yld.•We think the HIV franchise alone, without any long-acting, is worth $70on a DCF basis, and could be $90-115 assuming the long-acting franchiseis successful. This does not include growth from new BCMA and otheroncology pipeline assets.•We think continued defensive rotation into large-cap biotech, includingGILD, could continue to drive the stock if the market remains challenging.Base Case,$130, +27%•Our $130 PT is based on our view that GILDremains a cheap and low-expectation story thatis improving and could even achieve a 15xmultiple on 2026 earnings, which is still at thelower end of biotech peers.•OurDCFanalysisHIVbusiness(capsid,etc),alongside amanageable/more predictable HCV business,includingprobability-based analysis of thepipeline.•GILD does more M&A,including'string-of-pearls' bolt-ons, and continues to build its mid/late-stage pipeline to improve 2025+ visibility.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Access and Affordability:GILD develops and commercializes medications forpatients with chronic infections (e.g. HIV, HBV). It is important all patients can get access to and affordGILD's drugs.2) Product Quality and Safety:FDA recently put lenacapavir (GILD’s long-acting HIV drug)on clinical hold due to a CMC issue related to the compatibility of the drug in borosilicate vials and laterlifted the clinical hold when GILD switched to an alternate vial made from aluminosilicate glass.Company Target(s): 1)Improve workforce diversity and representativeness.2)Meet environmental goals(e.g. reduce gas emissions, potable water use, total solid waste, and increase recyclable and reusablepackaging).Qs to Mgmt:1)Tell us about your efforts to ensure affordable access to your medications for underservedpopulations. 2) What measures will you take to achieve your environmental goals?ESG Sector Deep Dives: US Biotech, Pharma, and Specialty PharmaPlease see important disclosure information on pages 39 - 44 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. suggestsadurableUpside Scenario,$150, +46%•Our$150 upside scenario PT is based onapplying a 17-18x multiple to a 2026 non-GAAPEPS estimate.•We assume a durable HIV business thatremains flattish instead of falling post-2030,and that in fact should grow over the next 5+years as it continues to take share (i.e., no majorthreats from competitors).•We could see multiple expansion fromcontinuedM&A and BD and/or positivedatareadouts from pipeline programs ininflammation and oncology. Downside Scenario,$80, -22%•Our $80 downside scenario PT is based onapplying a 8-9x multiple to our 2026 non-GAAPEPS estimate.•IMMU deal disappoints and Trodelvy launchandfuturestudiessuggesting the co overpaid.•HIV generics could take more share thanexpected.•GSK takes increasing market share inHIVbased on dolutegravir-based two-drugregimens.•Negative perception of business development ifthere are major clinical trial failures.CatalystsJune 19th:Lenacapavir PDUFA dateH1:25Trodelvy 1L PD1 negative TNBC dataASCENT-03H2:25: Phase I update on Q6M integrase couldunderwhelm,3 Long-acting PrEPSurvey…What DoesDemand Look Like?BUY | PT: $130Michael YeeMay 2025GILEAD SCIENCES (GILD)Jefferies Large Cap Biotech & SmidCap A