百时美施贵宝（BMY US）：持有：情况愈发复杂——又一笔VEGF交易

Issuer ofreport:HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsMAINTAIN HOLDTARGET PRICE(USD)PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)50.0047.00SHARE PRICE(USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE48.28+3.6%(as of30 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(USDm)98,254Free floatMarket cap (USDm)98,254BBG3m ADTV (USDm)786RICFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(USD)Year to12/2024a12/2025eHSBC EPS1.15HSBC EPS (prev)1.15Change (%)0.0Consensus EPS0.93PE (x)41.9Dividend yield (%)5.0EV/EBITDA (x)23.2ROE (%)10.252-WEEK PRICE(USD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesRajesh Kumar*Head, European Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Bank plcrajesh4kumar@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 1629Yifeng Liu*Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Bank plcyifeng.liu@hsbc.com+44 20 7 9919355Morten Herholdt*Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Bank plcmorten.herholdt@hsbc.com+ 44 20 7992 4082* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesPharmaceuticalsUnited States05/2411/24Target price: 50.00High: 63.11 Low: 39.66 Current: 48.28 ◆◆◆ 6.336.93-8.76.887.65.08.066.8 Find out more100%BMY USBMY.N12/2026e12/2027e6.286.386.326.42-0.6-0.66.126.057.77.65.05.07.67.150.941.636.0051.5067.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary(USDm)Revenue48,30045,90243,53643,793EBITDA5,93216,29316,18516,174Depreciation & amortisation-728-698-668-671Operating profit/EBIT5,20415,59515,51715,503Net interest0-1,103-812-551PBT-8,37913,05813,08113,755HSBC PBT5,45615,69515,57615,827Taxation-554-2,350-2,355-2,476Net profit-8,94810,69210,71111,264HSBC net profit2,34012,85512,75712,963Cash flow summary(USDm)Cash flow from operations15,19014,52414,36513,971Capex-1,248-1,186-1,125-1,132Cash flowfrom investment-21,352-2,686-1,625-1,420Dividends-4,863-4,877-4,877-4,926Change in net debt10,995-6,961-7,863-7,625FCF equity15,04113,33813,24012,839Balance sheet summary(USDm)Intangible fixed assets45,02643,77241,66039,759Tangible fixed assets17,47718,08218,65719,234Current assets30,10033,52837,86642,688Cash & others11,17915,26720,25725,009Total assets92,60395,38298,182101,681Operating liabilities26,56626,38726,21126,230Gross debt49,64946,77643,90341,030Net debt39,30332,34224,47916,854Shareholders' funds16,33522,15127,98534,323Invested capital54,85853,72851,71450,442Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue7.3-5.0-5.20.6EBITDA-66.1174.7-0.7-0.1Operating profit-69.0199.7-0.5-0.1PBT-199.30.25.2HSBC EPS-84.7449.4-0.81.6Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.90.80.80.9ROIC10.023.624.124.9ROE10.266.850.941.6ROA-9.512.411.811.7EBITDA margin12.335.537.236.9Operating profit margin10.834.035.635.4EBITDA/net interest (x)14.819.929.3Net debt/equity239.8145.687.249.0Net debt/EBITDA (x)6.62.01.51.0CF fromoperations/net debt38.644.958.782.9Per share data(USD)EPS Rep (diluted)-4.405.265.275.54HSBC EPS (diluted)1.156.336.286.38DPS2.402.402.402.42Book value8.0410.9013.7716.89Financials & valuation:Bristol-Myers Squibb Estimate revisionsWe have incorporated USD1.5bn ofIP R&D charges inourQ225 estimates, leading to EPScutsrelated to this deal. We have also incorporatedrisk adjusted revenues from non-US andprofit share impact in the margins in our estimates.Estimates revisionHSBC vs consensusUSDbn, ye Dec2025eRevenuesHSBC45.9bnCons45.7bn% difference0%Adj.operating profitHSBC15.6bnCons16.7bn% difference-7%EPSHSBC6.33Cons6.73% difference-6%Source: Visible Alphaconsensus, HSBC estimatesValuation and risksValuationMethodology:APV methodologyAssumptions:We derive our revised target price of USD50(from USD47)using an APVanalysis. Our target price is based on a WACC of 9.3%(unchanged). Our WACC is based on RFR of 3.75% (unchanged), ERP of4.25% (unchanged), Biopharma sector premium of 1.00% (unchanged),ESG premium of 1.00% (unchanged) and a beta of 1.00 (unchanged). Ourtarget price of USD50impliesupside of3.6% and we reiterateaHold rating.Catalysts and cost savings can support the share price and keep it rangebound. Old vsnew2026e2027e2025e2026e2027eRevenues43.5bn43.8bnHSBC45.9bn43.5bn43.8bn43.0bn42.8bnOld45.9bn43.5bn43.8bn1%2%% difference0%0%0%Adj.operating profit15.5bn15.5bnHSBC15.6bn15.5bn15.5bn15.2bn15.5bnOld17.1bn15.5bn15.5bn2%0%% difference-9%0%0%EPS6.286.38HSBC6.336.286.386.096.07Old6.936.326.423%5%% difference-9%-1%-1%Risksto our viewDownside risks:1) continued downgrade cycle onmargins further accentuated by the IRA; 2) patentexpiries and royalties reduction leads to a sharpermargin fade in 2024-26e; 3) overpaying foracquisitions; 4) inability to reinvigorate the pipeline tooffset the impact ofpatent expiries; and 5) litigationon drug pricing is an ongoing risk for large pharmacompaniesUpside risks:1) new management reinvigoratesdeal flows sooner than expected; 2) clinical data fromlate-stage pipeline candidates opens up new blockbuster opportunities; 3) LOE impact is materiallysmaller than expected;