ism制造业：逆风转变为逆风

motion for manufacturing.Restricted - External Jonathan Millar+1 212 526 4876jonathan.millar@barclays.comBCI, USMarc Giannoni+1 212 526 9373marc.giannoni@barclays.comBCI, USPooja Sriram+1 212 526 0713pooja.sriram@barclays.comBCI, USColin Johanson+1 212 526 8536colin.johanson@barclays.comBCI, US Respondents point to intensifying disruptions, chaos, and uncertainty in theaftermathofthetariffs.None of the respondents in this report had positive things to say about the outlook,with many pointing to heightened uncertainty about wheretariffswill settle. One respondentfrom the electronics industry compared the degree of supply chain disruptions with those seenin theaftermathof the COVID-19 lockdowns. Others warned of empty retailer shelves for someproducts (paper), full pass-through oftariffsto input prices (metals), and financial distressamong suppliers in the auto industry as manufacturers pressure them to absorb costs(transportation).2 Source: Institute for Supply Management, S&P Global, Haver AnalyticsFIGURE 4. ...and the production indicator firmed somewhat25303540455055606570750810121416182022Index,saProductionISM ManufacturingSource: Institute for Supply Management, Haver Analytics2 June 2025 FIGURE 6. Input prices and delivery times hint at intensifying supplydisruptions...Source: ISM, Haver Analytics2 June 2025 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Pooja Sriram, Jonathan Millar, Colin Johanson and Marc Giannoni, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accuratelyreflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensationwas, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesregularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securities that are thesubject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). Barclays trading desks may have either a long and / or short position in such securities,other financial instruments and / or derivatives, which may pose a conflict with the interests of investing customers. Where permitted and subject toappropriate information barrier restrictions, Barclays fixed income research analysts regularly interact with its trading desk personnel regardingcurrent market conditions and prices. Barclays fixed income research analysts receive compensation based on various factors including, but notlimited to, the quality of their work, the overall performance of the firm (including the profitability of the Investment Banking Department), theprofitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of the firm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset classcovered by the analyst. To the extent that any historical pricing information was obtained from Barclays trading desks, the firm makes norepresentation that it is accurate or complete. All levels, prices and spreads are historical and do not necessarily represent current market levels, pricesor spreads, some or all of which may have changed since the publication of this document. Barclays Research Department produces various types ofresearch including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations andtrade ideas contained in one type of Barclays Research maydifferfrom those contained in other types of Barclays Research, whether as a result ofdifferingtime horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/RD.htm. In order to access Barclays Research Conflict Management Policy Statement, please refer to: https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/CM.htm.Disclosure(s) regarding Information SourcesInclu