2025年第一季度财报电话会议：应对交叉影响

Restricted - External Investment SciencesRenate Marold(v)+1 212 526 2484renate.marold@barclays.comBCI, USRyan Preclaw(v)+1 212 412 2249ryan.preclaw@barclays.comBCI, US Talking about uncertainty and concerns, andmitigationeffortsOur sense is that in the Q2'25 reporting season, discussing Q1'25 results, language used bycorporate executives from S&P 1500 companies diverged very strongly from priorquarters, reflecting the rapidly changing business landscape and the many challenges thatexecutives navigate amid trade-related uncertainty.They talked broadly about uncertainty,concerns, and potential impact. But the current quarter of auto themes also identifiedmany strongly upward trending business strategy themes that reflect executives'effortsto mitigate negative impact on their business, with auto themes such as "contractnegotiations" and "sourcing strategy" detected. Alongside references of "risinguncertainty" , there was a sharp pickup in references totariffs,and to disruptions to thesupply chain and markets, seemingly driving all the strategy-related themes.Discussions of "uncertainty" among S&P 1500 executives became more common, approachingor exceeding previous call coverage (Figure 2). The auto themes tool identifies two uncertainty-related themes: "economic uncertainty" with references related to market impact and/or ratevolatility (dark blue line below), and a broader "macro-economic environment" theme, withsuch discussions related to the uncertainty and changes or the impact on business (light-blue 2 FIGURE 3. The "potential impact" theme picked up strongly, theFIGURE 4. Sharply rising discussions of business resilience and riskmitigation plans0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2007Q12010Q12013Q12016Q12019Q12022Q12025Q1Call coverageresilience (business, strength, model, market, portfolio)mitigation (risk, effort, strategy, plan, cost)Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays ResearchSource: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Researchline below). Call coverage of both themes exceeded previous highs, but they are still covered ina still fairly small subset of earnings calls, 2-3%.FIGURE 2. Coverage of the macro environment and uncertainty themes picked up0%1%2%3%4%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%2007Q12009Q12011Q12013Q12015Q12017Q12019Q12021Q12023Q12025Q1Call coverageCall coverageeconomic uncertainty (market, level, rate, impact, volatility)macro env.(uncertainty, change, term, impact, business) - RHSSource: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays ResearchCorporate executives also talked very frequently about a "potential impact" theme, related tothe potential impact from or on businesses,tariffs,acquisitions, and "events" (Figure 3).References to a "concerns" theme picked up, but remained within historical ranges. The pickupfrom last quarter was strongest for communication services, followed by consumerdiscretionaries. On the contrary, the "concern" theme fell for consumer staples (Figure 5).We think the sharp gain in the "risk mitigation"/"mitigation strategy" theme might reflectexecutives'effortsto reduce the impact from ongoing trade andtariffuncertainty, whilethe "business resilience" theme could serve to convey confidence in suchefforts(Figure 4). The"mitigation" theme has been discussed most among utilities firms, which discussed the themein about 20-25% of their calls in the three most recent reporting seasons. However, the pickup inthe theme was most notable among four sectors: consumer discretionary, health care,industrials, and IT (Figure 6).3 FIGURE 5. "Concern" theme across sectors: highest concern call coverage among communicationservices and utilitiesSource: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 6. Mitigationefforttheme across sectors: pickup in the theme was most notable amongthe consumer discretionary, health care, industrials and IT sectors0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Call coverage2020Q22024Q42025Q12025Q2Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays ResearchNavigating supply chain logisticsOur auto themes tool picked up thetarifftheme in nearly 60% of earnings calls, identified as thekeyword"tariff"with related context words "impact", "cost", "trade", "rate", and "situation"(Figure 7). This was greater than a tripling of references to the theme relative to the periodduring the trade war of Trump's first term inofficearound 2018-2019. Another upward trendingauto theme was the disruption to markets, business, and supply chains. This "supply chaindisruption" theme was discussed even more broadly during the COVID-pandemic in Q2'20 andin theaftermathin the Q4'21 reporting seasons (nearing 30% call coverage), but the pickupfrom 6% in the previous reporting season to the current 11% still makes it one of the mostwidespread discussions among the auto themes this quarter.The discussion around the costs of raw materials and steel also picked up, albeit less stronglythan around sourcing strategies (Figure 8). Call coverage of these two themes remains at levelswell below earlier discussion peaks. 4 While the "supply chain" theme is sti