大宗商品价格快照：解放日之后的进展报告

Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, andwith the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Since the 2 April ‘LiberationDay’ trade policy announcementsglobal commodity prices are down4%; prices fell 1% in MayThere is considerably variationacross materials, with goldprices up strongly and oil and industrial metals lowerWe seedownside risksto most commodity prices as globalgrowth slows andsignificantuncertaintypersistsGold prices up, oil and metals prices downThe key development impacting commodity prices over the past two months hasbeen the large shifts in US trade policy.As we see it, there are three key economic effects. First, uncertainty has risensharply, remains very high, and is set to weigh on activity. Second, ‘front-loading’ ofactivity, including of trade and US consumer spending, has artificially supportedglobal activity but is set to unwind in the coming period, weakening growth. Third,despite ‘pauses’ on very high US tariff rates, including on 9 April, for most US tradingpartners, and 13 May, for China, current US import tariff rates are still much higherthan they were before 2 April.USsteel and aluminiumimportsnowappearset toface ahigher50% tariff(previously 25%)from4June (Bloomberg, 31 May 2025).Theweaker demand outlook has been reflected in an 11% and 14% decline in oiland natural gas prices, respectively, over the past two months.Industrial metalsprices have also fallen,particularlyreflecting a softer outlook for China’s growth. Forthe aggregateglobal commodity priceindex,however,a sharp rise in gold prices–up10%over the past two months–on‘safe-haven’flowshas partly offset the impactof declines in the prices of most other materials.In aggregate,globalcommodityprices havefallen by 4% since the 2 Aprilannouncements.Akeydevelopment has been significantfragmentation of some commodity markets,particularly those for copperandaluminium. Forexample, forcopper, onshore pricesin the US are significantly higher than those outside the US, reflecting a front-loadingeffectaheadof expected tariff increases.Anotherkey recent development has been a change of tactics by OPEC+,to boostsupply more quickly than had been expected,whichisalsoweighingon oil prices.Atits meeting on 31 May, OPEC+ decided toadd 411kbpd in July 2025, matching theacceleratedoutput hikes scheduled for May and June, respectively.Looking ahead, as we noted in our latest semi-annualkeyreport, we see risks tiltedto the downsidefor global commodity prices(seeGlobal Commodities: Trump, tariffsand trade, 13 March 2025).Commodity Prices SnapshotApost-LiberationDayprogress report ◆◆◆ A progress reporton commoditiessince ‘Liberation Day’Global commodity prices fell by 1% m-o-m, on average, in May 2025 (Chart 1).This followed afall of 3% m-o-m in April (seeCommodity Prices Snapshot: Lower in April, with considerablevolatility, 1 May 2025).Over the past two months, effectively since US President Trump’sreciprocal tariff announcements on 2 April, aggregate commodity prices are down byanaverage of4%, with prices for 22 of the 42 commodities we track having fallen(see Chart 4).The modest decline in aggregate commodity pricesin April and Maymasksconsiderabledivergenceacross differentcommodities(Chart 2).Notablythere has beena sharp rise in gold prices,which has partly offset declines in oil, natural gas,and industrial commodity prices (Chart 3).Oil (-3.4ppts) and natural gas (-1.5ppts) prices had the largest negative contribution tothechange in ouraggregate commodity price index over the past two months, with prices down by11% and 14%, respectively.Industrial metals (-0.6ppts) priceshave also fallen, withlowerprices forcopper (-6%), aluminium (-8%), iron ore (-1%), tin (-6%),andnickel (-4%).In contrast,highergold(+1.6ppts)priceshad a positive contribution tothe change inouraggregate commodity price index over the past two months, withgoldprices up by 10%.The evolution in commodity prices over the past two months is largely aligned with the risks wehighlighted back in our semi-annualkeyreport in March (seeGlobal Commodities: Trump, tariffsand trade, 13 March 2025). In the report, we noted “uncertainty is high, there is marked2. The relativelymuted decline inaggregate commodity prices reflects …3. … sharply higher gold prices partlyoffsetting lower oil and metals pricesSource: Bloomberg,HSBCSource: Bloomberg,HSBC80859095100105110Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Apr-25Bloomberg Commodity Spot Price Index(index, 1 April 2025 = 100)Index60708090100110120130Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Bloomberg Commodity Spot Price Index(selected components, index, 1 April 2025 = 100)IndexOil(Brent)Copper Apr-25Gold 2Commodity prices fell by anaverage of 4% in the past twomonths …… with higher gold pricespartly offsetting lower oil,gas, and industrial metalspricesThe fall in commodity pricesis aligned with the downsiderisks we had highlighted variation across commodity types, and we see ove